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Al Quwa Al Jawiya - Al-Gharafa

AFC Champions League November 23, 2026 19:15
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
#11 · 3 pts
vs
Al-Gharafa
#15 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.61%
Win
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
32.6%
Draw
35.78%
Win
Al-Gharafa
0.74
Expected xG
1.15

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.29%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 33%
2 36%
Double Chance
1X 64%
X2 68%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 49%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Al-Gharafa a 35% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Expected goals are 0.7 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 1.2 for Al-Gharafa (total 1.9), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.29% probability.

Season Stats

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1W 0D 2L
Al-Gharafa
2W 0D 9L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.9
1.7
Conceded
2.4
1.7
Shots OT
4.7
3.3
Corners
4.7
43%
Poss.
38%
Percentages
33%
O 1.5
91%
33%
O 2.5
64%
33%
BTTS
45%
33%
Clean Sht
18%
ℹ Based on the last 11 matches in AFC Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1W 0D 1L · at home
Al-Gharafa
0W 0D 6L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.8
2.0
Conceded
3.5
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
0%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
83%
50%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al-Gharafa →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.0% 17.3% 9.9% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3%
1 11.2% 12.9% 7.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 4.2% 4.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Quwa Al Jawiya
W Pakhtakor 1–0
L Al Ain 1–4
L Neftchi 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa
L Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1
L Esteghlal FC 1–2
L Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–1
L Tractor Sazi 0–2
L Al-Ittihad FC 7–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 15%

Playing profile

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Attack
19
Defence
59
Form
42
Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa
Attack
36
Defence
54
Form
26
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

West Region

# Team G Pts
1 Al Ain Al Ain 3 9
2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 9
3 Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 7
4 Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC 3 6
5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 6
6 Al Shamal Al Shamal 3 5
7 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 5
8 Al-Ittihad FC Al-Ittihad FC 3 4
9 Al-Nassr Al-Nassr 2 3
10 Neftchi Neftchi 3 3
11 Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3 3
12 Pakhtakor Pakhtakor 3 2
13 Tractor Sazi Tractor Sazi 3 1
14 Al Sadd Al Sadd 3 1
15 Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa 3 0
16 Al-Wasl FC Al-Wasl FC 2 0

What's at stake · West Region

Top 2 advance to the next round

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al-Gharafa
Current #11 #15
→ Al Quwa Al Jawiya #6 #15
→ Draw #9 #14
→ Al-Gharafa #11 #12

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al-Gharafa?
The model gives Al Quwa Al Jawiya a 31% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 35% for an Al-Gharafa win.
How many goals are expected in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al-Gharafa?
Expected goals: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0.7, Al-Gharafa 1.2 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al-Gharafa?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.29%.