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La Liga · Regular Season - 8 October 10, 2026 16:15 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz
Alaves
#7 · 12 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Atletico Madrid
#2 · 25 pts
Lucas Boyé 45'+6 (pen.)
33' (ast. Jonathan David) Alejandro Grimaldo
87' (ast. Alejandro Baena Rodríguez) Cristian Romero
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Madrid a 40% win probability (draw 26%, Alaves 33%). The final result was Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid. In 2 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Atletico Madrid.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
22
3
Shots on target
7
1.13
Actual xG
2.14
5
Saves
2
32%
Possession
68%
0
Corners
10
21
Tackles
19
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
33'
ast. Jonathan David · Alejandro Grimaldo⚽
45'+1
Robin Le Normand
⚽Lucas Boyé (pen.)
45'+6
45'
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez / Jonathan David ↕
45'
Ademola Lookman
45'
Julián Álvarez / Ademola Lookman ↕
57'
Lee Kang-In / Pablo Barrios Rivas ↕
Angel Pérez Hidalgo
61'
62'
Dávid Hancko / Robin Le Normand ↕
↕ Antonio Blanco / Carlos Protesoni
64'
↕ Toni Martínez / Mariano Díaz
64'
↕ Lucas Boyé / Ander Guevara
64'
↕ Nicolas Valentini / Ville Koski
71'
73'
Alexander Sørloth / Giuliano Simeone Baldini ↕
↕ Denis Suárez / Aitor Mañas
79'
87'
ast. Alejandro Baena Rodríguez · Cristian Romero⚽
90'+2
Johnny Cardoso
Pre-match prediction
33.89%
Alaves
26.07%
X
40.04%
Atletico ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Madrid) 40.04% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Alaves
2.39
1.13
-1.26
Atletico
2.42
2.14
-0.28
Atletico Madrid dominated by xG (2.14 vs 1.13). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 10 27
2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 10 25
3 Real Madrid Real Madrid 10 24
4 Real Betis Real Betis 10 20
5 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 10 19
6 Sevilla Sevilla 10 17
7 Alaves Alaves 10 12
8 Athletic Club Athletic Club 9 12
9 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 10 12
10 Villarreal Villarreal 10 12
11 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 10 11
12 Osasuna Osasuna 10 11
13 Racing Santander Racing Santander 10 11
14 Levante Levante 10 10
15 Elche Elche 10 10
16 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 9 9
17 Getafe Getafe 10 9
18 Espanyol Espanyol 10 8
19 Valencia Valencia 10 6
20 Malaga Malaga 10 5
Lineups
Alaves Alaves 3-5-2
1 Sivera Sivera G 6.84
17 Jonny Jonny D 6.43
2 N. Valentini N. Valentini 71' D 6.22
14 N. Tenaglia N. Tenaglia D 6.45
21 A. Rebbach A. Rebbach M 5.98
19 Pablo Ibáñez Pablo Ibáñez M 6.56
8 Antonio Blanco Antonio Blanco 64' M 6.27
4 Denis Suárez Denis Suárez 79' M 6.71
7 Angel Pérez Angel Pérez 61' M 5.51
15 L. Boyé L. Boyé 1 ⚽ 64' F 6.59
11 Toni Martínez Toni Martínez 64' F 6.40
Bench
13 A. Giménez A. Giménez G 0.00
20 Aitor Mañas Aitor Mañas 11' F 6.50
10 Carles Aleñá Carles Aleñá M 0.00
23 C. Benavídez C. Benavídez 26' M 6.14
6 Guevara Guevara 26' M 6.03
12 Hugo Novoa Hugo Novoa F 0.00
9 M. Díaz M. Díaz 26' F 6.28
22 Miguel Rodríguez Miguel Rodríguez F 0.00
24 Selu Diallo Selu Diallo M 0.00
16 V. Koski V. Koski 19' D 6.22
27 X. Olaiz X. Olaiz D 0.00
3 Yusi Yusi D 0.00
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
13 J. Oblak J. Oblak G 6.50
22 Álex Grimaldo Álex Grimaldo 1 ⚽ D 8.40
24 Robin Le Normand Robin Le Normand 62' D 6.27
21 C. Romero C. Romero 1 ⚽ D 7.77
14 Marcos Llorente Marcos Llorente D 7.17
8 Pablo Barrios Pablo Barrios 57' M 6.95
20 G. Simeone G. Simeone 73' M 6.70
5 J. Cardoso J. Cardoso M 6.68
6 Koke Koke M 7.20
15 J. David J. David 1 👟 45' F 7.35
11 A. Lookman A. Lookman 45' M 5.88
Bench
10 Álex Baena Álex Baena 1 👟 45' M 7.26
16 Arnau Ortiz Arnau Ortiz F 0.00
9 A. Sørloth A. Sørloth 17' F 6.57
30 Dani Martínez Dani Martínez D 0.00
17 D. Hancko D. Hancko 28' D 6.89
19 J. Álvarez J. Álvarez 45' F 6.76
46 J. Castillo J. Castillo M 0.00
27 J. Dominguez J. Dominguez D 0.00
1 J. Musso J. Musso G 0.00
7 Lee Kang-In Lee Kang-In 33' M 6.44
18 Marc Pubill Marc Pubill D 0.00
23 M. Hjulmand M. Hjulmand M 0.00
Best on the pitch
Álex Grimaldo
Álex Grimaldo
D · Atletico
8.40
1 ⚽
3 shots · 63 pass
C. Romero
C. Romero
D · Atletico
7.77
1 ⚽
2 shots · 82 pass
J. David
J. David
F · Atletico
7.35
1 👟
1 shots · 9 pass
Álex Baena
Álex Baena
M · Atletico
7.26
1 👟
3 shots · 28 pass
Koke
Koke
M · Atletico
7.20
· 122 pass
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente
D · Atletico
7.17
3 shots · 91 pass
Alaves Alaves — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Sivera G 90 6.84 — — 0 28 13% 0 — —
Jonny D 90 6.43 — — 0 48 42% 1 — —
N. Valentini D 71 6.22 — — 0 39 33% 2 — —
N. Tenaglia D 90 6.45 — — 0 40 32% 6 — —
A. Rebbach M 90 5.98 — — 1 18 16% 2 — —
Pablo Ibáñez M 90 6.56 — — 0 21 19% 6 — —
Antonio Blanco M 64 6.27 — — 0 39 36% 0 — —
Denis Suárez M 79 6.71 — — 0 34 28% 0 — —
Angel Pérez M 61 5.51 — — 3 17 14% 1 — 1
L. Boyé F 64 6.59 1 — 1 8 5% 0 — —
Toni Martínez F 64 6.40 — — 1 7 4% 0 — —
Aitor Mañas F 11 6.50 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
C. Benavídez M 26 6.14 — — 0 9 8% 1 — —
Guevara M 26 6.03 — — 0 10 6% 1 — —
M. Díaz F 26 6.28 — — 2 10 9% 0 — —
V. Koski D 19 6.22 — — 0 10 9% 1 — —
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Oblak G 90 6.50 — — 0 19 14% 0 — —
Álex Grimaldo D 90 8.40 1 — 3 63 57% 2 — —
Robin Le Normand D 62 6.27 — — 0 41 37% 1 1 —
C. Romero D 90 7.77 1 — 2 82 75% 2 — —
Marcos Llorente D 90 7.17 — — 3 91 89% 3 — —
Pablo Barrios M 57 6.95 — — 1 40 37% 1 — —
G. Simeone M 73 6.70 — — 1 36 31% 2 — —
J. Cardoso M 90 6.68 — — 0 79 74% 2 1 —
Koke M 90 7.20 — — 0 122 113% 4 — —
J. David F 45 7.35 — 1 1 9 7% 0 — —
A. Lookman M 45 5.88 — — 3 18 16% 0 1 —
Álex Baena M 45 7.26 — 1 3 28 20% 0 — —
A. Sørloth F 17 6.57 — — 1 2 1% 0 — —
D. Hancko D 28 6.89 — — 1 36 34% 0 — —
J. Álvarez F 45 6.76 — — 3 17 16% 1 — —
Lee Kang-In M 33 6.44 — — 0 26 22% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
The final score was Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid.
What did the model predict before Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Alaves win, 26% to a draw, and 40% to an Atletico Madrid win.