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La Liga · Regular Season - 36 May 13, 2026 21:30 Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves
#2 · 10 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Barcelona
#1 · 12 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Barcelona, result Alaves wins
I. Diabate (ast. A. Blanco) 45'+1
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 55% win probability (draw 20%, Alaves 23%). The final result was Alaves 1–0 Barcelona. In 1 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Barcelona.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
0
0.66
Actual xG
0.59
0
Saves
3
23%
Possession
77%
6
Corners
4
16
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽I. Diabate · ast. A. Blanco
45'+1
46'
M. Rashford
62'
F. Torres / R. Bardghji ↕
62'
X. Espart / P. Cubarsi ↕
62'
Pedri / M. Casado ↕
↕ I. Diabate / A. Manas
64'
↕ D. Suarez / P. Ibanez
64'
79'
J. Cancelo / A. Balde ↕
↕ V. Parada / C. Protesoni
80'
A. Rebbach
81'
87'
T. Marques / M. Bernal ↕
89'
J. Cancelo
Pre-match prediction
23.34%
Alaves ←
20.77%
X
55.89%
Barcelona
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Alaves) 23.34% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Alaves
1.26
0.66
-0.6
Barcelona
2.10
0.59
-1.51
xG dominance was balanced (0.66 – 0.59). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 4 12
2 Alaves Alaves 5 10
3 Sevilla Sevilla 5 10
4 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4 9
5 Real Betis Real Betis 4 9
6 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 4 8
7 Espanyol Espanyol 5 7
8 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4 7
9 Racing Santander Racing Santander 5 7
10 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 5 7
11 Osasuna Osasuna 5 7
12 Athletic Club Athletic Club 4 6
13 Levante Levante 4 5
14 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4 4
15 Getafe Getafe 4 4
16 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 5 3
17 Villarreal Villarreal 4 2
18 Malaga Malaga 4 2
19 Elche Elche 4 1
20 Valencia Valencia 5 1
Lineups
Alaves Alaves 5-3-2
1 Sivera Sivera G 6.90
21 A. Rebbach A. Rebbach D 7.20
24 Víctor Parada Víctor Parada 80' D 6.90
16 V. Koski V. Koski D 7.30
14 N. Tenaglia N. Tenaglia D 7.20
7 Angel Pérez Angel Pérez D 6.90
4 Denis Suárez Denis Suárez 64' M 6.70
8 Antonio Blanco Antonio Blanco 1 👟 M 6.90
18 Jon Guridi Jon Guridi M 7.30
22 I. Diabate I. Diabate 1 ⚽ 64' F 7.20
11 Toni Martínez Toni Martínez F 6.50
Bench
34 Aitor Mañas Aitor Mañas 26' F 6.30
20 Calebe Calebe M
10 Carles Aleñá Carles Aleñá M
23 C. Benavídez C. Benavídez 10' M 6.60
27 Egoitz Muñoz Egoitz Muñoz D
6 Guevara Guevara M
17 Jonny Jonny D
5 Jon Pacheco Jon Pacheco D
9 M. Díaz M. Díaz F
19 Pablo Ibáñez Pablo Ibáñez 26' M 6.90
13 Raúl Fernández Raúl Fernández G
3 Yusi Yusi D
Barcelona Barcelona 4-2-3-1
25 W. Szczęsny W. Szczęsny G 6.90
3 Alejandro Balde Alejandro Balde 79' D 6.70
36 Álvaro Cortés Moyano Álvaro Cortés Moyano D 7.70
5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes Pau Cubarsí Paredes 62' D 6.90
23 J. Koundé J. Koundé D 7.30
22 Marc Bernal Marc Bernal 87' M 7.20
17 Marc Casadó Marc Casadó 62' M 6.70
14 M. Rashford M. Rashford M 6.30
20 Dani Olmo Dani Olmo M 6.30
19 R. Bardghji R. Bardghji 62' M 6.30
9 R. Lewandowski R. Lewandowski F 6.30
Bench
15 A. Christensen A. Christensen D
33 Eder Aller Eder Aller G
24 Eric García Eric García D
7 Ferran Torres Ferran Torres 28' F 6.30
6 Gavi Gavi M
18 Gerard Martín Gerard Martín D
13 Joan García Joan García G
2 João Cancelo João Cancelo 11' D 6.70
8 Pedri Pedri 28' M 7.20
4 R. Araújo R. Araújo D
43 Tomás Marqués Tomás Marqués 3' M
42 X. Espart X. Espart 28' D 7.30
Best on the pitch
Álvaro Cortés Moyano
Álvaro Cortés Moyano
D · Barcelona
7.70
· 93 pass
X. Espart
X. Espart
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 29 pass
V. Koski
V. Koski
D · Alaves
7.30
· 10 pass
J. Koundé
J. Koundé
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 85 pass
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi
M · Alaves
7.30
· 15 pass
A. Rebbach
A. Rebbach
D · Alaves
7.20
1 shots · 15 pass
Alaves Alaves — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Sivera G 90 6.90 — — — 36 14% — — —
A. Rebbach D 90 7.20 — — 1 15 8% 4 1 —
Víctor Parada D 80 6.90 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
V. Koski D 90 7.30 — — — 10 7% 2 — —
N. Tenaglia D 90 7.20 — — 1 15 10% 3 — —
Angel Pérez D 90 6.90 — — — 22 12% — — —
Denis Suárez M 64 6.70 — — — 17 14% — — —
Antonio Blanco M 90 6.90 — 1 — 24 16% — — —
Jon Guridi M 90 7.30 — — — 15 13% 2 — —
I. Diabate F 64 7.20 1 — 2 4 3% 1 — —
Toni Martínez F 90 6.50 — — 2 25 10% 1 — —
Aitor Mañas F 26 6.30 — — — 1 — — — —
C. Benavídez M 10 6.60 — — — 1 1% — — —
Pablo Ibáñez M 26 6.90 — — — — — 2 — —
Barcelona Barcelona — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
W. Szczęsny G 90 6.90 — — — 18 16% — — —
Alejandro Balde D 79 6.70 — — — 52 47% 2 — —
Álvaro Cortés Moyano D 90 7.70 — — — 93 88% 1 — —
Pau Cubarsí Paredes D 62 6.90 — — — 59 57% 2 — —
J. Koundé D 90 7.30 — — — 85 82% — — —
Marc Bernal M 87 7.20 — — 1 68 60% 3 — —
Marc Casadó M 62 6.70 — — — 59 51% 1 — —
M. Rashford M 90 6.30 — — 2 43 37% — 1 —
Dani Olmo M 90 6.30 — — 1 55 46% — — —
R. Bardghji M 62 6.30 — — 1 23 21% — — —
R. Lewandowski F 90 6.30 — — — 18 12% — — —
Ferran Torres F 28 6.30 — — — 12 7% — — —
João Cancelo D 11 6.70 — — — 12 11% — 1 —
Pedri M 28 7.20 — — — 44 39% — — —
Tomás Marqués M 3 — — — — 6 4% — — —
X. Espart D 28 7.30 — — — 29 27% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alaves vs Barcelona?
The final score was Alaves 1–0 Barcelona.
What did the model predict before Alaves vs Barcelona?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Alaves win, 20% to a draw, and 55% to an Barcelona win.