✗Model wrong — prediction Barcelona, result Alaves wins
I. Diabate
(ast. A. Blanco)
45'+1
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 55% win probability (draw 20%, Alaves 23%). The final result was Alaves 1–0 Barcelona. In 1 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Barcelona.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
0
0.66
Actual xG
0.59
0
Saves
3
23%
Possession
77%
6
Corners
4
16
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽I. Diabate
· ast. A. Blanco
45'+1
46'
M. Rashford
62'
F. Torres
/
R. Bardghji
62'
X. Espart
/
P. Cubarsi
62'
Pedri
/
M. Casado
I. Diabate
/ A. Manas
64'
D. Suarez
/ P. Ibanez
64'
79'
J. Cancelo
/
A. Balde
V. Parada
/ C. Protesoni
80'
A. Rebbach
81'
87'
T. Marques
/
M. Bernal
89'
J. Cancelo
Pre-match prediction
23.34%
Alaves ←
20.77%
X
55.89%
Barcelona
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Alaves)
23.34%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.26
0.66
-0.6
2.10
0.59
-1.51
xG dominance was balanced (0.66 – 0.59).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Antonio Sivera
G
Antonio Sivera
G
21
Abderrahman Rebbach
D
Abderrahman Rebbach
D
24
Victor Parada
80'
D
Victor Parada
80'
D
16
Ville Koski
D
Ville Koski
D
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
D
Nahuel Tenaglia
D
7
Ángel Pérez
D
Ángel Pérez
D
4
Denis Suárez
64'
M
Denis Suárez
64'
M
8
Antonio Blanco
1 👟
M
Antonio Blanco
1 👟
M
18
Jon Guridi
M
Jon Guridi
M
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
1 ⚽
64'
F
Ibrahim Diabaté
1 ⚽
64'
F
11
Toni Martínez
F
Toni Martínez
F
Bench
34
Aitor Mañas
26'
F
Aitor Mañas
26'
F
20
Calebe Gonçalves
M
Calebe Gonçalves
M
10
Carles Aleñá
M
Carles Aleñá
M
23
Carlos Benavídez
10'
M
Carlos Benavídez
10'
M
27
Egoitz Muñoz
D
Egoitz Muñoz
D
6
Guevara
M
Guevara
M
17
Jonny Otto
D
Jonny Otto
D
5
Jon Pacheco
D
Jon Pacheco
D
9
Mariano Díaz
F
19
Pablo Ibáñez
26'
M
Pablo Ibáñez
26'
M
13
Raúl Fernández
G
Raúl Fernández
G
3
Yusi
D
Yusi
D
25
Wojciech Szczęsny
G
Wojciech Szczęsny
G
3
Alejandro Balde
79'
D
Alejandro Balde
79'
D
36
Álvaro Cortés
D
Álvaro Cortés
D
5
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
62'
D
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
62'
D
23
Jules Koundé
D
Jules Koundé
D
22
Marc Bernal
87'
M
Marc Bernal
87'
M
17
Marc Casadó
62'
M
Marc Casadó
62'
M
14
M. Rashford
M
M. Rashford
M
20
Dani Olmo
M
Dani Olmo
M
19
R. Bardghji
62'
M
R. Bardghji
62'
M
9
Robert Lewandowski
F
Robert Lewandowski
F
Bench
15
Andreas Christensen
D
Andreas Christensen
D
33
Eder Aller
G
Eder Aller
G
24
Eric García
D
Eric García
D
7
Ferran Torres
28'
F
Ferran Torres
28'
F
6
Gavi
M
Gavi
M
18
Gerard Martín
D
Gerard Martín
D
13
Joan García
G
Joan García
G
2
João Cancelo
11'
D
João Cancelo
11'
D
8
Pedri
28'
M
Pedri
28'
M
4
R. Araújo
D
R. Araújo
D
43
Tomás Marqués
3'
M
Tomás Marqués
3'
M
42
Xavi Espart
28'
D
Xavi Espart
28'
D
Best on the pitch
Álvaro Cortés
D · Barcelona
7.70
· 93 pass
Xavi Espart
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 29 pass
Ville Koski
D · Alaves
7.30
· 10 pass
Jules Koundé
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 85 pass
Jon Guridi
M · Alaves
7.30
· 15 pass
Abderrahman Rebbach
D · Alaves
7.20
1 shots
· 15 pass
Alaves — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sivera | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Victor Parada | D | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Ville Koski | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Ángel Pérez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 24 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jon Guridi | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 64 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Benavídez | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — |
Barcelona — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wojciech Szczęsny | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Balde | D | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 52 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Álvaro Cortés | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 93 | 88% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 57% | 2 | — | — |
| Jules Koundé | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 85 | 82% | — | — | — |
| Marc Bernal | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 68 | 60% | 3 | — | — |
| Marc Casadó | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Rashford | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 46% | — | — | — |
| R. Bardghji | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Robert Lewandowski | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| João Cancelo | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Pedri | M | 28 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Tomás Marqués | M | 3 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Xavi Espart | D | 28 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alaves vs Barcelona?
The final score was Alaves 1–0 Barcelona.
What did the model predict before Alaves vs Barcelona?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Alaves win, 20% to a draw, and 55% to an Barcelona win.