✗Model wrong — prediction Barcelona, result Alaves wins
I. Diabate
(ast. A. Blanco)
45'+1
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 55% win probability (draw 20%, Alaves 23%). The final result was Alaves 1–0 Barcelona. In 1 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Barcelona.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
0
0.66
Actual xG
0.59
0
Saves
3
23%
Possession
77%
6
Corners
4
16
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽I. Diabate
· ast. A. Blanco
45'+1
46'
M. Rashford
62'
F. Torres
/
R. Bardghji
62'
X. Espart
/
P. Cubarsi
62'
Pedri
/
M. Casado
I. Diabate
/ A. Manas
64'
D. Suarez
/ P. Ibanez
64'
79'
J. Cancelo
/
A. Balde
V. Parada
/ C. Protesoni
80'
A. Rebbach
81'
87'
T. Marques
/
M. Bernal
89'
J. Cancelo
Pre-match prediction
23.34%
Alaves ←
20.77%
X
55.89%
Barcelona
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Alaves)
23.34%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.26
0.66
-0.6
2.10
0.59
-1.51
xG dominance was balanced (0.66 – 0.59).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Sivera
G
Sivera
G
21
A. Rebbach
D
A. Rebbach
D
24
Víctor Parada
80'
D
Víctor Parada
80'
D
16
V. Koski
D
V. Koski
D
14
N. Tenaglia
D
N. Tenaglia
D
7
Angel Pérez
D
Angel Pérez
D
4
Denis Suárez
64'
M
Denis Suárez
64'
M
8
Antonio Blanco
1 👟
M
Antonio Blanco
1 👟
M
18
Jon Guridi
M
Jon Guridi
M
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
1 ⚽
64'
F
Ibrahim Diabaté
1 ⚽
64'
F
11
Toni Martínez
F
Toni Martínez
F
Bench
34
Aitor Mañas
26'
F
Aitor Mañas
26'
F
20
Calebe
M
Calebe
M
10
Carles Aleñá
M
Carles Aleñá
M
23
C. Benavídez
10'
M
C. Benavídez
10'
M
27
Egoitz Muñoz
D
Egoitz Muñoz
D
6
Guevara
M
Guevara
M
17
Jonny
D
Jonny
D
5
Jon Pacheco
D
Jon Pacheco
D
9
M. Díaz
F
M. Díaz
F
19
Pablo Ibáñez
26'
M
Pablo Ibáñez
26'
M
13
Raúl Fernández
G
Raúl Fernández
G
3
Yusi
D
Yusi
D
25
W. Szczęsny
G
W. Szczęsny
G
3
Alejandro Balde
79'
D
Alejandro Balde
79'
D
36
Álvaro Cortés
D
Álvaro Cortés
D
5
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
62'
D
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
62'
D
23
J. Koundé
D
J. Koundé
D
22
Marc Bernal
87'
M
Marc Bernal
87'
M
17
Marc Casadó
62'
M
Marc Casadó
62'
M
14
M. Rashford
M
M. Rashford
M
20
Dani Olmo
M
Dani Olmo
M
19
R. Bardghji
62'
M
R. Bardghji
62'
M
9
R. Lewandowski
F
R. Lewandowski
F
Bench
15
A. Christensen
D
A. Christensen
D
33
Eder Aller
G
Eder Aller
G
24
Eric García
D
Eric García
D
7
Ferran Torres
28'
F
Ferran Torres
28'
F
6
Gavi
M
Gavi
M
18
Gerard Martín
D
Gerard Martín
D
13
Joan García
G
Joan García
G
2
João Cancelo
11'
D
João Cancelo
11'
D
8
Pedri
28'
M
Pedri
28'
M
4
R. Araújo
D
R. Araújo
D
43
Tomás Marqués
3'
M
Tomás Marqués
3'
M
42
X. Espart
28'
D
X. Espart
28'
D
Best on the pitch
Álvaro Cortés
D · Barcelona
7.70
· 93 pass
X. Espart
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 29 pass
V. Koski
D · Alaves
7.30
· 10 pass
J. Koundé
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 85 pass
Jon Guridi
M · Alaves
7.30
· 15 pass
A. Rebbach
D · Alaves
7.20
1 shots
· 15 pass
Alaves — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivera | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Rebbach | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Víctor Parada | D | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Koski | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Angel Pérez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 24 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jon Guridi | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 64 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| C. Benavídez | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — |
Barcelona — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Szczęsny | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Balde | D | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 52 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Álvaro Cortés | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 93 | 88% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 57% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Koundé | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 85 | 82% | — | — | — |
| Marc Bernal | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 68 | 60% | 3 | — | — |
| Marc Casadó | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Rashford | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 46% | — | — | — |
| R. Bardghji | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Lewandowski | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| João Cancelo | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Pedri | M | 28 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Tomás Marqués | M | 3 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| X. Espart | D | 28 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alaves vs Barcelona?
The final score was Alaves 1–0 Barcelona.
What did the model predict before Alaves vs Barcelona?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Alaves win, 20% to a draw, and 55% to an Barcelona win.