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La Liga · Regular Season - 10 October 23, 2026 21:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz
Alaves
#7 · 12 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Malaga
#20 · 5 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Alaves, result Draw
Aitor Mañas 89'
44' (ast. Ramón Enríquez) Adrian Nino
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alaves a 55% win probability (draw 23%, Malaga 21%). The final result was Alaves 1–1 Malaga.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
7
4
Shots on target
3
1.88
Actual xG
0.62
2
Saves
3
63%
Possession
37%
7
Corners
2
24
Tackles
26
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Lucas Boyé
39'
44'
ast. Ramón Enríquez · Adrian Nino⚽
45'
↕ Carles Aleñá / Hugo Novoa Ramos
45'
↕ Nicolas Valentini / Youssef Enriquez
55'
↕ Abderrahmane Rebbach / Denis Suárez
55'
↕ Mariano Díaz / Toni Martínez
66'
Nahuel Tenaglia
67'
68'
José Salinas / Adam Aznou ↕
68'
Rafael Rodríguez Ruiz / Ramón Enríquez ↕
↕ Antonio Blanco / Aitor Mañas
75'
77'
Juan Berrocal / Carlos Puga ↕
77'
Carlos Ruiz Rubio / Adrian Nino ↕
84'
Carlos Dotor
87'
Jens Cajuste / Carlos Dotor ↕
⚽Aitor Mañas
89'
90'+2
Juan Francisco Funes Arjona
Pre-match prediction
55.0%
Alaves
23.94%
X ←
21.06%
Malaga
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 23.94% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Alaves
2.40
1.88
-0.52
Malaga
0.96
0.62
-0.34
Alaves dominated by xG (1.88 vs 0.62). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 10 27
2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 10 25
3 Real Madrid Real Madrid 10 24
4 Real Betis Real Betis 10 20
5 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 10 19
6 Sevilla Sevilla 10 17
7 Alaves Alaves 10 12
8 Athletic Club Athletic Club 9 12
9 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 10 12
10 Villarreal Villarreal 10 12
11 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 10 11
12 Osasuna Osasuna 10 11
13 Racing Santander Racing Santander 10 11
14 Levante Levante 10 10
15 Elche Elche 10 10
16 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 9 9
17 Getafe Getafe 10 9
18 Espanyol Espanyol 10 8
19 Valencia Valencia 10 6
20 Malaga Malaga 10 5
Lineups
Alaves Alaves 5-3-2
1 Sivera Sivera G 6.85
21 A. Rebbach A. Rebbach 55' D 6.09
2 N. Valentini N. Valentini 55' D 6.25
16 V. Koski V. Koski D 7.00
14 N. Tenaglia N. Tenaglia D 6.56
7 Angel Pérez Angel Pérez D 7.25
10 Carles Aleñá Carles Aleñá 45' M 6.74
8 Antonio Blanco Antonio Blanco 75' M 6.66
19 Pablo Ibáñez Pablo Ibáñez M 6.27
9 M. Díaz M. Díaz 66' F 6.37
15 L. Boyé L. Boyé F 6.44
Bench
13 A. Giménez A. Giménez G 0.00
20 Aitor Mañas Aitor Mañas 1 ⚽ 15' F 8.15
23 C. Benavídez C. Benavídez M 0.00
4 Denis Suárez Denis Suárez 35' M 6.95
12 Hugo Novoa Hugo Novoa 45' F 6.94
17 Jonny Jonny D 0.00
22 Miguel Rodríguez Miguel Rodríguez F 0.00
33 Rubén Montero Rubén Montero G 0.00
24 Selu Diallo Selu Diallo M 0.00
11 Toni Martínez Toni Martínez 24' F 7.39
27 X. Olaiz X. Olaiz D 0.00
3 Yusi Yusi 35' D 6.48
Malaga Malaga 4-1-4-1
1 Alfonso Herrero Alfonso Herrero G 5.66
31 Rafita Rafita D 6.83
4 Einar Galilea Einar Galilea D 7.18
15 Ángel Recio Ángel Recio D 6.33
3 Puga Puga 77' D 6.89
6 Ramón Enríquez Ramón Enríquez 1 👟 68' M 7.32
39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh 68' M 6.06
22 Dani Lorenzo Dani Lorenzo M 6.32
8 Carlos Dotor Carlos Dotor 87' M 6.11
10 David Larrubia David Larrubia M 6.47
21 Adrián Niño Heredia Adrián Niño Heredia 1 ⚽ 77' F 8.07
Bench
5 Álex Pastor Álex Pastor D 0.00
13 Carlos López Carlos López G 0.00
9 Chupe Chupe 13' F 6.75
17 Eneko Jauregi Eneko Jauregi F 0.00
20 Fernando Calero Fernando Calero D 0.00
7 H. Abaida H. Abaida F 0.00
23 Izan Merino Izan Merino M 0.00
2 J. Cajuste J. Cajuste 3' M 6.56
32 J. Fernandez J. Fernandez F 0.00
12 José Salinas José Salinas 22' D 6.39
25 Juan Berrocal Juan Berrocal 13' D 6.37
14 Rafa Rodríguez Rafa Rodríguez 22' M 6.00
Best on the pitch
Aitor Mañas
Aitor Mañas
F · Alaves
8.15
1 ⚽
2 shots · 2 pass
Adrián Niño Heredia
Adrián Niño Heredia
F · Malaga
8.07
1 ⚽
1 shots · 7 pass
Toni Martínez
Toni Martínez
F · Alaves
7.39
3 shots · 2 pass
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
M · Malaga
7.32
1 👟
· 46 pass
Angel Pérez
Angel Pérez
D · Alaves
7.25
2 shots · 23 pass
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea
D · Malaga
7.18
· 55 pass
Alaves Alaves — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Sivera G 90 6.85 — — 0 21 20% 0 — —
A. Rebbach D 55 6.09 — — 0 14 9% 3 — —
N. Valentini D 55 6.25 — — 0 46 35% 1 — —
V. Koski D 90 7.00 — — 1 73 64% 1 — —
N. Tenaglia D 90 6.56 — — 3 49 43% 4 1 —
Angel Pérez D 90 7.25 — — 2 23 20% 2 — —
Carles Aleñá M 45 6.74 — — 0 12 10% 0 — —
Antonio Blanco M 75 6.66 — — 1 47 41% 2 — —
Pablo Ibáñez M 90 6.27 — — 2 40 38% 6 — —
M. Díaz F 66 6.37 — — 0 8 7% 1 — —
L. Boyé F 90 6.44 — — 2 14 8% 0 1 —
Aitor Mañas F 15 8.15 1 — 2 2 2% 0 — —
Denis Suárez M 35 6.95 — — 0 30 28% 1 — —
Hugo Novoa F 45 6.94 — — 1 24 23% 3 — —
Toni Martínez F 24 7.39 — — 3 2 2% 0 — —
Yusi D 35 6.48 — — 1 21 18% 0 — —
Malaga Malaga — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Alfonso Herrero G 90 5.66 — — 0 36 19% 0 — —
Rafita D 90 6.83 — — 1 66 62% 1 — —
Einar Galilea D 90 7.18 — — 0 55 49% 1 — —
Ángel Recio D 90 6.33 — — 0 52 44% 1 — —
Puga D 77 6.89 — — 0 41 33% 8 — —
Ramón Enríquez M 68 7.32 — 1 0 46 40% 0 — —
Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh M 68 6.06 — — 0 13 7% 3 — —
Dani Lorenzo M 90 6.32 — — 0 35 31% 5 — —
Carlos Dotor M 87 6.11 — — 2 43 36% 2 1 —
David Larrubia M 90 6.47 — — 0 43 34% 2 — —
Adrián Niño Heredia F 77 8.07 1 — 1 7 6% 0 — —
Chupe F 13 6.75 — — 1 4 4% 0 — —
J. Cajuste M 3 6.56 — — 1 1 1% 0 — —
José Salinas D 22 6.39 — — 1 8 8% 2 — —
Juan Berrocal D 13 6.37 — — 0 2 0% 1 — —
Rafa Rodríguez M 22 6.00 — — 0 12 10% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alaves vs Malaga?
The final score was Alaves 1–1 Malaga.
What did the model predict before Alaves vs Malaga?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Alaves win, 23% to a draw, and 21% to an Malaga win.