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← UEFA Nations League

Albania - Belarus

UEFA Nations League September 26, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Albania
#1 · 0 pts
vs
Belarus
#3 · 0 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 24.7°C 💨 19 km/h 🌧️ 45% · Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
16.81%
Win
Albania
19.29%
Draw
63.9%
Win
Belarus
0.61
Expected xG
2.02
Most likely outcome
Belarus
63.9%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–2 (14.73%)
1X2 Result
1 17%
X 19%
2 64%
Double Chance
1X 36%
X2 83%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 78%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Belarus a 63% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Albania. Expected goals are 0.6 for Albania and 2.0 for Belarus (total 2.6), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–2 at 14.73% probability.

Season Stats

Albania
2W 1D 3L
Belarus
1W 4D 1L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.5
1.0
Conceded
0.7
2.5
Shots OT
3.0
3.0
Corners
4.3
44%
Poss.
41%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
50%
33%
O 2.5
0%
33%
BTTS
33%
33%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
33%
BTTS
Albania
0W 1D 2L · at home
Belarus
1W 1D 1L · away
0.3
gls/g
0.7
1.0
Conceded
1.0
0%
Win %
33%
33%
Win or Draw
67%
33%
O 1.5
67%
33%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
33%
33%
Clean Sht
33%
67%
Failed to Score
33%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Albania Belarus →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2% 14.6% 14.7% 9.9% 5.0% 2.0%
1 4.4% 8.9% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.2%
2 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%
3 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
4 — 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Albania Albania
L Ukraine 1–2
D Czechia 0–0
W Georgia 0–1
L Czechia 2–0
L Georgia 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Belarus Belarus
D Bulgaria 1–1
L Northern Ireland 2–0
D Luxembourg 1–1
D Northern Ireland 0–0
W Luxembourg 0–1

Playing profile

Albania Albania
Attack
8
Defence
71
Form
39
Belarus Belarus
Attack
49
Defence
64
Form
40
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Albania Albania 0 0
2 Finland Finland 0 0
3 Belarus Belarus 0 0
4 San Marino San Marino 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Albania Belarus
Current #1 #3
→ Albania #1 #3
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Belarus #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Albania vs Belarus?
The model gives Albania a 16% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 63% for an Belarus win.
How many goals are expected in Albania vs Belarus?
Expected goals: Albania 0.6, Belarus 2.0 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in Albania vs Belarus?
0–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.73%.