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Liga 1 · Clausura - 12 October 18, 2026 22:30 Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana
Alianza Atletico
#8 · 21 pts
1 – 4
Final score
Universitario
#2 · 56 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Alianza Atletico, result Universitario wins
Ariel Muñoz (ast. Cristian Penilla) 56'
(og) 15' Román Suárez
23' (ast. Edison Flores) Andy Polo
45' (ast. Gianluca Lapadula) Alex Valera
(og) 82' Jose Lujan
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alianza Atletico a 64% win probability (draw 14%, Universitario 20%). The final result was Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario. In 1 previous meetings, Alianza Atletico have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Universitario.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
11
6
Shots on target
6
0.47
Actual xG
1.05
4
Saves
5
59%
Possession
41%
9
Corners
5
10
Tackles
20
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
1'
Horacio Calcaterra
Stefano Fernández
8'
15'
(og) Román Suárez⚽
17'
23'
ast. Edison Flores · Andy Polo⚽
Ariel Muñoz
42'
45'
ast. Gianluca Lapadula · Alex Valera⚽
↕ Stefano Fernández / Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas
45'
↕ Jorge del Castillo / Jimmy Perez
45'
↕ José María Ingratti / Valentin Robaldo
45'
52'
Anderson Santamaría
⚽Ariel Muñoz · ast. Cristian Penilla
56'
57'
Lisandro Alzugaray / Edison Flores ↕
↕ Anthony Gordillo / Erick Perleche
66'
67'
Jorge Murrugarra / Jairo Concha ↕
67'
José Rivera / Gianluca Lapadula ↕
↕ Ariel Muñoz / Jairo Molina
75'
80'
Piero Quispe / Alex Valera ↕
81'
Héctor Fertoli / Horacio Calcaterra ↕
82'
(og) Jose Lujan⚽
Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
64.14%
Alianza
14.98%
X
20.88%
Universitario ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Universitario) 20.88% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Alianza
3.68
0.47
-3.21
Universitario
1.97
1.05
-0.92
Universitario dominated by xG (1.05 vs 0.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 17 40
2 Club Deportivo Los Chankas Club Deportivo Los Chankas 17 34
3 Cienciano Cienciano 17 33
4 Universitario Universitario 17 29
5 FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 17 28
6 Cusco Cusco 17 27
7 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 17 26
8 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 17 21
9 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 17 21
10 ADT ADT 17 20
11 Sport Boys Sport Boys 17 20
12 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 17 19
13 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 17 18
14 UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 17 18
15 FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 17 17
16 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 17 16
17 Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo 17 16
18 Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 17 16
Lineups
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 4-1-4-1
31 S. Rivadeneyra S. Rivadeneyra G 6.42
24 A. Gordillo A. Gordillo 66' D 5.87
6 J. Luján J. Luján 1 ⚽ D 4.98
2 R. Suarez R. Suarez 1 ⚽ D 5.42
16 S. Fernández S. Fernández 45' D 5.44
10 Germán Díaz Germán Díaz M 6.41
17 C. Penilla C. Penilla 1 👟 M 6.85
22 J. del Castillo J. del Castillo 45' M 5.90
15 H. Lupú H. Lupú M 5.60
23 A. Muñoz A. Muñoz 1 ⚽ 75' M 7.72
27 J. Ingratti J. Ingratti 45' F 6.55
Bench
95 D. Prieto D. Prieto G 0.00
21 E. Perleche E. Perleche 24' D 5.63
11 G. Larios G. Larios F 0.00
37 J. Delgado J. Delgado M 0.00
20 Jimmy Pérez Jimmy Pérez 45' M 6.19
19 J. Mendieta J. Mendieta D 0.00
29 J. Molina J. Molina 15' F 6.22
9 V. Robaldo V. Robaldo 45' F 6.27
25 W. Guzmán W. Guzmán 45' D 5.52
Universitario Universitario 3-4-1-2
1 D. Romero D. Romero G 7.54
3 W. Riveros W. Riveros D 6.59
2 C. Fara C. Fara D 6.36
4 A. Santamaría A. Santamaría D 6.85
33 C. Inga C. Inga M 6.24
10 H. Calcaterra H. Calcaterra 81' M 6.44
17 J. Concha J. Concha 67' M 6.29
24 A. Polo A. Polo 1 ⚽ M 8.20
19 É. Flores É. Flores 1 👟 57' M 7.13
20 A. Valera A. Valera 1 ⚽ 80' F 8.00
18 G. Lapadula G. Lapadula 1 👟 67' F 6.70
Bench
29 A. Corzo A. Corzo D 0.00
8 H. Fértoli H. Fértoli 9' M 6.49
70 J. Gutiérrez J. Gutiérrez D 0.00
23 J. Murrugarra J. Murrugarra 23' M 6.49
15 J. Requena J. Requena M 0.00
11 J. Rivera J. Rivera 23' F 6.73
30 Lisandro Joel Alzugaray Lisandro Joel Alzugaray 33' F 6.81
25 M. Vargas M. Vargas G 0.00
39 P. Quispe P. Quispe 10' M 6.34
Best on the pitch
A. Polo
A. Polo
M · Universitario
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 32 pass
A. Valera
A. Valera
F · Universitario
8.00
1 ⚽
4 shots · 21 pass
A. Muñoz
A. Muñoz
M · Alianza
7.72
1 ⚽
3 shots · 33 pass
D. Romero
D. Romero
G · Universitario
7.54
· 16 pass
É. Flores
É. Flores
M · Universitario
7.13
1 👟
· 18 pass
C. Penilla
C. Penilla
M · Alianza
6.85
1 👟
3 shots · 42 pass
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Rivadeneyra G 90 6.42 — — 0 16 13% 0 — —
A. Gordillo D 66 5.87 — — 1 20 17% 0 — —
J. Luján D 90 4.98 1 — 1 36 28% 0 — —
R. Suarez D 90 5.42 1 — 0 46 42% 0 — —
S. Fernández D 45 5.44 — — 1 19 14% 0 1 —
Germán Díaz M 90 6.41 — — 1 66 54% 4 — —
C. Penilla M 90 6.85 — 1 3 42 28% 0 — —
J. del Castillo M 45 5.90 — — 1 30 25% 0 — —
H. Lupú M 90 5.60 — — 0 33 26% 0 — —
A. Muñoz M 75 7.72 1 — 3 33 31% 1 1 —
J. Ingratti F 45 6.55 — — 1 3 3% 2 — —
E. Perleche D 24 5.63 — — 0 12 11% 0 — —
Jimmy Pérez M 45 6.19 — — 0 35 30% 3 — —
J. Molina F 15 6.22 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
V. Robaldo F 45 6.27 — — 2 9 7% 0 — —
W. Guzmán D 45 5.52 — — 1 20 17% 0 1 —
Universitario Universitario — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Romero G 90 7.54 — — 0 16 8% 0 — —
W. Riveros D 90 6.59 — — 2 24 20% 1 — —
C. Fara D 90 6.36 — — 0 42 28% 2 — —
A. Santamaría D 90 6.85 — — 0 25 23% 2 1 —
C. Inga M 90 6.24 — — 0 19 16% 1 — —
H. Calcaterra M 81 6.44 — — 0 29 23% 3 1 —
J. Concha M 67 6.29 — — 0 19 14% 3 — —
A. Polo M 90 8.20 1 — 1 32 28% 0 — —
É. Flores M 57 7.13 — 1 0 18 13% 2 — —
A. Valera F 80 8.00 1 — 4 21 14% 0 — —
G. Lapadula F 67 6.70 — 1 0 12 7% 0 — —
H. Fértoli M 9 6.49 — — 0 10 8% 1 — —
J. Murrugarra M 23 6.49 — — 0 8 5% 3 — —
J. Rivera F 23 6.73 — — 0 5 5% 1 — —
Lisandro Joel Alzugaray F 33 6.81 — — 4 13 12% 0 — —
P. Quispe M 10 6.34 — — 0 5 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alianza Atletico vs Universitario?
The final score was Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario.
What did the model predict before Alianza Atletico vs Universitario?
The model assigned 64% probability to a Alianza Atletico win, 14% to a draw, and 20% to an Universitario win.