Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau — pre-match prediction — Liga 1 — October 18, 2026

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Liga 1 · Clausura - 12 October 18, 2026 03:30 Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima

Alianza Lima

#1 · 65 pts

3 – 1

Final score

Atletico Grau

#11 · 18 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Alianza Lima

Kevin Quevedo (ast. Federico Girotti) 11'

Erick Castillo 50'

Jairo Vélez 83'

44' (ast. Gabriel Alfaro) Aldair Vásquez

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alianza Lima a 70% win probability (draw 15%, Atletico Grau 14%). The final result was Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau. In 1 previous meetings, Alianza Lima have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Atletico Grau.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.64

Actual xG

0.57

Saves

60%

Possession

40%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Kevin Quevedo · ast. Federico Girotti

11'

Esteban Pavez

33'

44'

ast. Gabriel Alfaro · Aldair Vásquez⚽

Kevin Quevedo

45'+2

↕ Kevin Quevedo / Gaspar Gentile

45'

↕ Esteban Pavez / Jesús Castillo

45'

⚽Erick Castillo

50'

↕ Mateo Antoni Pavon / Gianfranco Chavez

54'

61'

Pablo Lavandeira / Aldair Vásquez ↕

61'

Nicolás Delgadillo / Diego Barreto ↕

65'

Adrián Fernández

77'

Luis Benites / Adrián Fernández ↕

78'

Yamir Ruidiaz Misitich / Rodrigo Tapia ↕

Jairo Vélez

81'

⚽Jairo Vélez

83'

↕ Erick Castillo / Piero Cari

85'

Jesús Castillo

87'

89'

Elsar Rodas / Gabriel Alfaro ↕

↕ Federico Girotti / Luis Ramos

90'+2

Pre-match prediction

70.69%

Alianza ←

15.24%

14.06%

Atletico

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Alianza Lima) 70.69% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Alianza

2.79

1.64

-1.15

Atletico

1.15

0.57

-0.58

Alianza Lima dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.57). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	65
2	Universitario	30	56
3	FBC Melgar	31	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	31	51
5	Cusco	31	51
6	Cienciano	31	50
7	Sporting Cristal	31	47
8	Alianza Atletico	31	46
9	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	31	46
10	Sport Huancayo	31	44
11	Sport Boys	30	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	31	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	35
14	Atletico Grau	31	34
15	ADT	31	30
16	FC Cajamarca	31	28
17	UCV Moquegua	31	28
18	UTC Cajamarca	31	18

Lineups

Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2

A. Duarte G 6.54

M. Huamán D 6.79

M. Antoni 54' D 6.20

R. Garcés D 6.95

L. Advíncula D 6.63

E. Pavez 45' M 6.64

J. Vélez 1 ⚽ M 7.51

K. Quevedo 1 ⚽ 45' M 7.60

F. Gaibor M 7.16

E. Castillo 1 ⚽ 85' F 8.20

F. Girotti 1 👟 89' F 7.68

Bench

A. Cantero F 0.00

Á. de la Cruz G 0.00

C. Carbajal D 0.00

G. Chávez 36' D 6.27

G. Gentile 45' F 6.42

J. Castillo 45' M 6.54

L. Ramos 1' F 0.00

N. Díaz D 0.00

P. Cari 5' M 6.25

Atletico Grau 5-4-1

P. Álvarez G 5.94

G. Alfaro 1 👟 89' D 5.70

I. Tapia D 5.64

L. Acevedo D 6.48

R. Tapia 78' D 5.35

C. Vásquez D 5.46

D. Barreto 61' M 6.21

R. Guarderas M 6.74

F. Oncoy M 5.96

A. Vásquez 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.10

A. Fernández 77' F 6.42

Bench

D. Rodríguez D 0.00

E. Correa M 0.00

E. Rodas 1' D 5.89

J. Ataupillco D 0.00

J. Calderón G 0.00

L. Benítes 13' M 5.82

N. Delgadillo 29' F 6.30

P. Lavandeira 29' M 5.83

Yamir Ruidíaz Misitich 12' F 6.28

Best on the pitch

E. Castillo

F · Alianza

8.20

1 ⚽

4 shots · 24 pass

F. Girotti

F · Alianza

7.68

1 👟

4 shots · 24 pass

K. Quevedo

M · Alianza

7.60

1 ⚽

3 shots · 16 pass

J. Vélez

M · Alianza

7.51

1 ⚽

2 shots · 46 pass

F. Gaibor

M · Alianza

7.16

· 62 pass

A. Vásquez

M · Atletico

7.10

1 ⚽

2 shots · 13 pass

Alianza Lima — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
A. Duarte	G	90	6.54	—	—	0	29	22%	0	—	—
M. Huamán	D	90	6.79	—	—	1	34	26%	6	—	—
M. Antoni	D	54	6.20	—	—	0	40	32%	0	—	—
R. Garcés	D	90	6.95	—	—	1	54	50%	1	—	—
L. Advíncula	D	90	6.63	—	—	1	63	55%	1	—	—
E. Pavez	M	45	6.64	—	—	0	32	29%	1	1	—
J. Vélez	M	90	7.51	1	—	2	46	37%	3	1	—
K. Quevedo	M	45	7.60	1	—	3	16	14%	1	1	—
F. Gaibor	M	90	7.16	—	—	0	62	55%	0	—	—
E. Castillo	F	85	8.20	1	—	4	24	21%	2	—	—
F. Girotti	F	89	7.68	—	1	4	24	18%	1	—	—
G. Chávez	D	36	6.27	—	—	0	16	13%	0	—	—
G. Gentile	F	45	6.42	—	—	2	13	11%	1	—	—
J. Castillo	M	45	6.54	—	—	0	23	20%	1	1	—
L. Ramos	F	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
P. Cari	M	5	6.25	—	—	0	1	1%	0	—	—

Atletico Grau — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
P. Álvarez	G	90	5.94	—	—	0	15	13%	0	—	—
G. Alfaro	D	89	5.70	—	1	0	23	16%	3	—	—
I. Tapia	D	90	5.64	—	—	0	45	34%	0	—	—
L. Acevedo	D	90	6.48	—	—	1	33	28%	0	—	—
R. Tapia	D	78	5.35	—	—	0	34	22%	3	—	—
C. Vásquez	D	90	5.46	—	—	0	17	14%	3	—	—
D. Barreto	M	61	6.21	—	—	1	22	20%	1	—	—
R. Guarderas	M	90	6.74	—	—	0	30	24%	1	—	—
F. Oncoy	M	90	5.96	—	—	0	36	29%	2	—	—
A. Vásquez	M	61	7.10	1	—	2	13	6%	2	—	—
A. Fernández	F	77	6.42	—	—	3	13	9%	0	1	—
E. Rodas	D	1	5.89	—	—	0	1	1%	1	—	—
L. Benítes	M	13	5.82	—	—	0	9	7%	1	—	—
N. Delgadillo	F	29	6.30	—	—	0	2	2%	0	—	—
P. Lavandeira	M	29	5.83	—	—	1	11	8%	0	—	—
Yamir Ruidíaz Misitich	F	12	6.28	—	—	0	3	2%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?

The final score was Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau.

What did the model predict before Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?

The model assigned 70% probability to a Alianza Lima win, 15% to a draw, and 14% to an Atletico Grau win.