Alianza Lima 2–1 UCV Moquegua — pre-match prediction — Liga 1 — May 03, 2026

← Liga 1

Liga 1 · Apertura - 13 May 03, 2026 03:00 Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima

Alianza Lima

#1 · 56 pts

2 – 1

Final score

UCV Moquegua

#14 · 18 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Alianza Lima

E. Castillo (ast. L. Ramos) 37'

F. Girotti 76'

80' E. Lastre

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alianza Lima a 71% win probability (draw 15%, UCV Moquegua 12%). The final result was Alianza Lima 2–1 UCV Moquegua.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

Saves

67%

Possession

33%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽E. Castillo · ast. L. Ramos

37'

40'

Y. Zapata

L. Advincula

59'

60'

E. Lastre

61'

A. Davila / Y. Zapata ↕

61'

C. Ramirez / N. Chavez ↕

↕ L. Ramos / F. Girotti

70'

↕ G. Gentile / J. Castillo

70'

⚽F. Girotti

76'

78'

M. Negron / J. Collazos ↕

80'

E. Lastre⚽

R. Garces

86'

88'

D. Ramirez / C. Mejia ↕

88'

E. Montenegro / A. Perleche ↕

↕ F. Gaibor / A. Burlamaqui

90'+2

Pre-match prediction

71.96%

Alianza ←

15.56%

12.48%

UCV

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Alianza Lima) 71.96% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Alianza

2.97

—

UCV

0.74

—

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	56
2	Universitario	27	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	46
5	Cusco	27	45
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	27	42
7	Cienciano	27	41
8	Alianza Atletico	27	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	38
10	Sport Boys	27	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	34
13	Atletico Grau	27	32
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	27
16	ADT	27	25
17	UCV Moquegua	27	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	15

Lineups

Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2

G 5.90

Marco Huamán D 6.50

M. Antoni D 7.20

Renzo Garcés D 7.00

L. Advíncula D 6.70

M 7.50

G. Gentile 70' M 7.00

F. Gaibor M 7.60

Jairo Vélez M 6.30

L. Ramos 1 👟 70' F 6.70

E. Castillo 1 ⚽ F 7.60

Bench

F. Girotti 1 ⚽ 23' F 8.00

J. Castillo 23' M 6.50

K. Quevedo F

UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1

G 7.20

N. Amasifuén D 6.50

C. Enciso D 5.90

D 6.20

A. Perleche 88' D 6.20

R. Chipao M 7.20

N. Chávez 61' M 6.20

Y. Zapata 61' M 6.30

C. Mejía 88' M 6.00

E. Lastre 1 ⚽ M 7.30

J. Collazos 78' F 6.30

Bench

Allonso Davila 32' F 7.00

E. Montenegro 5' D

Kevin Moreno D

Best on the pitch

F. Girotti

F · Alianza

8.00

1 ⚽

1 shots · 7 pass

F. Gaibor

M · Alianza

7.60

1 shots · 73 pass

E. Castillo

F · Alianza

7.60

1 ⚽

3 shots · 24 pass

M · Alianza

7.50

· 73 pass

E. Lastre

M · UCV

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 12 pass

M. Antoni

D · Alianza

7.20

· 89 pass

Alianza Lima — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	93	5.90	—	—	—	23	21%	—	—	—
Marco Huamán	D	93	6.50	—	—	1	53	45%	—	—	—
M. Antoni	D	93	7.20	—	—	—	89	74%	2	—	—
Renzo Garcés	D	93	7.00	—	—	—	55	50%	—	1	—
L. Advíncula	D	93	6.70	—	—	—	40	35%	1	1	—
	M	93	7.50	—	—	—	73	63%	—	—	—
G. Gentile	M	70	7.00	—	—	4	19	16%	—	—	—
F. Gaibor	M	92	7.60	—	—	1	73	64%	2	—	—
Jairo Vélez	M	93	6.30	—	—	2	46	36%	2	—	—
L. Ramos	F	70	6.70	—	1	2	9	6%	1	—	—
E. Castillo	F	93	7.60	1	—	3	24	17%	1	—	—
F. Girotti	F	23	8.00	1	—	1	7	5%	1	—	—
J. Castillo	M	23	6.50	—	—	—	6	5%	—	—	—

UCV Moquegua — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	93	7.20	—	—	—	24	14%	—	—	—
N. Amasifuén	D	93	6.50	—	—	—	24	13%	4	—	—
C. Enciso	D	93	5.90	—	—	1	17	8%	—	—	—
	D	93	6.20	—	—	—	16	10%	1	—	—
A. Perleche	D	88	6.20	—	—	—	28	17%	3	—	—
R. Chipao	M	93	7.20	—	—	1	24	22%	1	—	—
N. Chávez	M	61	6.20	—	—	—	26	20%	—	—	—
Y. Zapata	M	61	6.30	—	—	1	13	10%	—	1	—
C. Mejía	M	88	6.00	—	—	1	18	15%	—	—	—
E. Lastre	M	93	7.30	1	—	1	12	10%	1	1	—
J. Collazos	F	78	6.30	—	—	1	22	13%	—	—	—
Allonso Davila	F	32	7.00	—	—	—	13	10%	—	—	—
E. Montenegro	D	5	—	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?

The final score was Alianza Lima 2–1 UCV Moquegua.

What did the model predict before Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?

The model assigned 71% probability to a Alianza Lima win, 15% to a draw, and 12% to an UCV Moquegua win.