Alianza Valledupar 1–5 Atletico Nacional — pre-match prediction — Liga BetPlay — August 30, 2026

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Liga BetPlay · Clausura - 8 August 30, 2026 03:30 Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar

Alianza Valledupar

#16 · 8 pts

1 – 5

Final score

Atletico Nacional

#1 · 40 pts

F. Pardo 34' (pen.)

5' (ast. E. Cardona) A. Sarmiento

19' (ast. Y. A. Perlaza Perea) A. Morelos

24' (ast. A. Morelos) M. Moreno

79' (ast. J. Rengifo) M. Moreno

90'+3 J. Rosa

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 50% win probability (draw 24%, Alianza Valledupar 25%). The final result was Alianza Valledupar 1–5 Atletico Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Alianza Valledupar have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico Nacional.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.09

Actual xG

2.31

Saves

37%

Possession

63%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. E. Cardona · A. Sarmiento⚽

E. W. Meza Mercado

16'

W. Tesillo

19'

ast. Y. A. Perlaza Perea · A. Morelos⚽

24'

ast. A. Morelos · M. Moreno⚽

I. Alba

26'

⚽F. Pardo (pen.)

34'

Y. Rosales

36'

↕ I. Alba / M. Martinez

36'

46'

J. Zapata / S. Velasquez ↕

↕ E. W. Meza Mercado / C. Esparragoza

46'

↕ Y. Rosales / P. Franco

57'

61'

C. Arango / E. Cardona ↕

61'

X. Rios / Y. A. Perlaza Perea ↕

↕ C. Vergara / H. Rada

69'

↕ F. Pardo / D. Quinones

69'

72'

K. Parra Atehortua / A. Sarmiento ↕

79'

ast. J. Rengifo · M. Moreno⚽

80'

J. Rosa / M. Moreno ↕

C. Esparragoza

90'+1

90'+3

J. Rosa⚽

Pre-match prediction

25.13%

Alianza

24.33%

50.55%

Atletico ←

we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional) 50.55% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Alianza

0.96

1.09

+0.13

Atletico

1.58

2.31

+0.73

Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (2.31 vs 1.09). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	America de Cali	11	24
2	Millonarios	12	20
3	Atletico Nacional	9	19
4	Independiente Medellin	9	19
5	Deportivo Cali	10	18
6	Bucaramanga	9	17
7	Deportes Tolima	10	17
8	Santa Fe	10	16
9	Llaneros	10	14
10	Once Caldas	10	12
11	Águilas Doradas	9	11
12	Internacional de Bogota	11	11
13	Cucuta	10	9
14	Fortaleza FC	10	8
15	Deportivo Pasto	10	8
16	Alianza Valledupar	10	8
17	Chico	9	8
18	Deportivo Pereira	8	7
19	Jaguares	9	7
20	Junior	8	6

Lineups

Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1

J. Wallens G 6.20

J. Lasso D 5.30

Juan Viveros D 5.90

J. Figueroa D 5.90

Y. Rosales 57' D 5.60

E. Meza 45' M 6.20

I. Alba 36' M 6.20

J. Muñoz M 6.30

W. Fernández M 6.50

F. Pardo 1 ⚽ 69' M 7.50

C. Vergara 69' F 6.60

Bench

C. Esparragoza 45' M 6.20

C. Villegas F

Déinner Quiñones 21' F 7.20

Eduar Beltrán G

Jean Rojas M

J. Mosquera D

M. Martínez 54' F 6.60

P. Franco 33' D 6.00

Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1

F. Armani G 7.00

S. Velásquez 45' D 6.50

W. Tesillo D 6.60

N. Parra D 6.60

Y. Perlaza 1 👟 61' D 6.60

J. Rengifo 1 👟 M 6.30

Andres Marin M 7.20

A. Sarmiento 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.30

E. Cardona 1 👟 61' M 7.20

M. Moreno 2 ⚽ 80' M 9.20

A. Morelos 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.90

Bench

C. Arango 29' F 6.20

I. Poveda F

Juan Rosa 1 ⚽ 10' F 7.00

J. Zapata 45' M 7.20

K. Parra 18' M 6.70

L. Marquinez G

Matias Lozano M

S. Garcia M

X. Rios 29' M 6.60

Best on the pitch

M. Moreno

M · Atletico

9.20

2 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

A. Morelos

F · Atletico

7.90

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 35 pass

F. Pardo

M · Alianza

7.50

1 ⚽

3 shots · 14 pass

A. Sarmiento

M · Atletico

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 9 pass

J. Zapata

M · Atletico

7.20

· 37 pass

Déinner Quiñones

F · Alianza

7.20

· 8 pass

Alianza Valledupar — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Wallens	G	90	6.20	—	—	—	21	10%	—	—	—
J. Lasso	D	90	5.30	—	—	—	19	15%	—	—	—
Juan Viveros	D	90	5.90	—	—	—	25	19%	2	—	—
J. Figueroa	D	90	5.90	—	—	1	22	17%	1	—	—
Y. Rosales	D	57	5.60	—	—	—	9	6%	—	1	—
E. Meza	M	45	6.20	—	—	—	15	11%	—	1	—
I. Alba	M	36	6.20	—	—	—	6	3%	—	1	—
J. Muñoz	M	90	6.30	—	—	1	20	13%	1	—	—
W. Fernández	M	90	6.50	—	—	1	28	21%	1	—	—
F. Pardo	M	69	7.50	1	—	3	14	10%	3	—	—
C. Vergara	F	69	6.60	—	—	—	15	11%	1	—	—
C. Esparragoza	M	45	6.20	—	—	—	21	20%	—	1	—
Déinner Quiñones	F	21	7.20	—	—	—	8	6%	—	—	—
M. Martínez	F	54	6.60	—	—	1	9	5%	—	—	—
P. Franco	D	33	6.00	—	—	—	13	12%	—	—	—

Atletico Nacional — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
F. Armani	G	90	7.00	—	—	—	25	18%	1	—	—
S. Velásquez	D	45	6.50	—	—	—	25	18%	1	—	—
W. Tesillo	D	90	6.60	—	—	—	60	55%	—	1	—
N. Parra	D	90	6.60	—	—	1	40	32%	—	—	—
Y. Perlaza	D	61	6.60	—	1	1	17	16%	1	—	—
J. Rengifo	M	90	6.30	—	1	2	50	42%	1	—	—
Andres Marin	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	57	51%	1	—	—
A. Sarmiento	M	72	7.30	1	—	1	9	7%	1	—	—
E. Cardona	M	61	7.20	—	1	3	35	30%	2	—	—
M. Moreno	M	80	9.20	2	—	2	26	22%	—	—	—
A. Morelos	F	90	7.90	1	1	2	35	31%	—	—	—
C. Arango	F	29	6.20	—	—	2	2	2%	—	—	—
Juan Rosa	F	10	7.00	1	—	2	—	—	—	—	—
J. Zapata	M	45	7.20	—	—	—	37	34%	—	—	—
K. Parra	M	18	6.70	—	—	2	4	2%	—	—	—
X. Rios	M	29	6.60	—	—	—	12	12%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?

The final score was Alianza Valledupar 1–5 Atletico Nacional.

What did the model predict before Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional?

The model assigned 25% probability to a Alianza Valledupar win, 24% to a draw, and 50% to an Atletico Nacional win.