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Almagro - Atletico DE Rafaela

Primera Nacional July 04, 2026 20:30
Almagro
#12 · 22 pts
vs
Atletico DE Rafaela
#4 · 27 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
64.72%
Win
Almagro
23.42%
Draw
11.86%
Win
Atletico DE Rafaela
1.55
Expected xG
0.36
Most likely result 1–0 (22.9%)
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
30%
Model prediction
Almagro
64.72%
Probability
33.3%
1X2 accuracy · 9 predictions (3 months)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Almagro a 64% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 11% for Atletico DE Rafaela. Expected goals are 1.6 for Almagro and 0.4 for Atletico DE Rafaela (total 1.9), with a 58% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 22.9% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Almagro have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atletico DE Rafaela.

Season Stats

Almagro
6W 3D 6L
Atletico DE Rafaela
6W 5D 4L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.8
1.1
Conceded
0.7
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
40%
27%
O 2.5
20%
40%
BTTS
27%
33%
Clean Sht
60%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera Nacional. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
62%
O 1.5
22%
O 2.5
0%
O 3.5
33%
BTTS
Almagro
5W 1D 3L · at home
Atletico DE Rafaela
1W 4D 4L · away
1.2
gls/g
0.4
0.7
Conceded
1.0
56%
Win %
11%
67%
Win or Draw
56%
67%
O 1.5
56%
22%
O 2.5
22%
0%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
33%
44%
Clean Sht
44%
22%
Failed to Score
56%
last 9
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Almagro Atletico DE Rafaela →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.8% 5.3% 1.0% 0.1% — —
1 22.9% 8.3% 1.5% 0.2% — —
2 17.8% 6.4% 1.2% 0.1% — —
3 9.2% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% — —
4 3.6% 1.3% 0.2% — — —
5 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Almagro Almagro
W Atlanta 2–0
W Agropecuario 2–1
D Tristan Suarez 0–0
W Club Atlético Güemes 2–0
L Chacarita Juniors 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 40%
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela
D Nueva Chicago 0–0
D Patronato 0–0
W Colegiales 1–0
L Quilmes 2–0
W Midland 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 37%

Playing profile

Almagro Almagro
Attack
32
Defence
82
Form
59
Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela
Attack
12
Defence
83
Form
47
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Almagro
1
Draw
0
Atletico DE Rafaela
14 Feb 2026 Primera Nacional 0–0

Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Gimnasia Jujuy Gimnasia Jujuy 18 36
2 Atlanta Atlanta 18 33
3 Tristan Suarez Tristan Suarez 18 30
4 Atletico DE Rafaela Atletico DE Rafaela 18 27
5 Temperley Temperley 18 27
6 Midland Midland 18 26
7 San Martin S.J. San Martin S.J. 17 23
8 Colegiales Colegiales 18 23
9 San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 18 23
10 Deportivo Maipu Deportivo Maipu 18 22
11 Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago 17 22
12 Almagro Almagro 18 22
13 Quilmes Quilmes 18 21
14 Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro 18 21
15 Patronato Patronato 18 21
16 Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors 18 19
17 Club Atlético Güemes Club Atlético Güemes 18 19
18 Agropecuario Agropecuario 18 18

What's at stake · Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Almagro Atletico DE Rafaela
Current #12 #4
→ Almagro #7 #4
→ Draw #10 #4
→ Atletico DE Rafaela #12 #4

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Almagro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
The model gives Almagro a 64% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 11% for an Atletico DE Rafaela win.
How many goals are expected in Almagro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Expected goals: Almagro 1.6, Atletico DE Rafaela 0.4 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 58%.
What is the most likely score in Almagro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 22.9%.