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Alpendorada - Casa Pia

Taça de Portugal October 17, 2026 16:00
Alpendorada
vs
Casa Pia
⚡ Pre-match analysis
40.88%
Win
Alpendorada
29.68%
Draw
29.44%
Win
Casa Pia
4.5
Expected xG
0.98

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.93%)
1X2 Result
1 41%
X 30%
2 29%
Double Chance
1X 71%
X2 59%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 56%
✓ 63.6% hit rate (44 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Alpendorada a 40% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Casa Pia. Expected goals are 4.5 for Alpendorada and 1.0 for Casa Pia (total 5.5), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.93% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Alpendorada have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Casa Pia.

Season Stats

Alpendorada
3W 1D 1L
Casa Pia
2W 0D 1L
Averages per game
3.0
Goals
2.3
1.4
Conceded
0.7
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
60%
BTTS
33%
20%
Clean Sht
67%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Alpendorada
3W 0D 1L · at home
Casa Pia
2W 0D 0L · away
3.2
gls/g
3.0
1.2
Conceded
0.0
75%
Win %
100%
75%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
50%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
0%
25%
Clean Sht
100%
25%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Alpendorada Casa Pia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — —
1 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% —
2 4.2% 4.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% —
3 6.3% 6.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% —
4 7.1% 7.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
5 6.4% 6.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% —

Recent form

Alpendorada Alpendorada
W Mação 3–0
D Rebordosa 2–2
L Casa Pia 0–3
W Estrela 3–1
W Estrela Calheta 7–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Casa Pia Casa Pia
L Torreense 1–2
W Alpendorada 0–3
W Ançã 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Alpendorada Alpendorada
Attack
61
Defence
73
Form
74
Casa Pia Casa Pia
Attack
25
Defence
45
Form
37
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Alpendorada
0
Draw
1
Casa Pia
22 Nov 2025 Taça de Portugal 0–3
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?
The model gives Alpendorada a 40% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 29% for an Casa Pia win.
How many goals are expected in Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?
Expected goals: Alpendorada 4.5, Casa Pia 1.0 (total 5.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.93%.