Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 9
October 24, 2026 19:00
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo
24'
(ast. Javi Sánchez)
Taichi Fukui
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alverca a 40% win probability (draw 29%, Arouca 30%). The final result was Alverca 0–1 Arouca. In 2 previous meetings, Alverca have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Arouca.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
17
1
Shots on target
4
0.43
Actual xG
2.06
3
Saves
1
29%
Possession
71%
3
Corners
3
9
Tackles
19
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
Steven Baseya
6'
Francisco Chissumba
/ Yaya Bojang
9'
19'
Jose Fontán
24'
ast. Javi Sánchez ·
Taichi Fukui⚽
Rayan Lucas
/ Ian Luccas
45'
54'
Pedro Santos
61'
Mateo Flores
/
Pedro Santos
Dawda Camara Sankharé
/ Matheus Franca
62'
67'
Dylan Nandín
/
Iván Barbero
67'
Boris Popovic
/
Jose Fontán
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
71'
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
/ Nabil Touaizi
75'
Davy Gui
/ Zé Rafael
75'
79'
Lee Hyun-ju
/
Taichi Fukui
79'
Brian Mansilla
/
Alfonso Trezza
Pre-match prediction
40.24%
Alverca
29.35%
X
30.41%
Arouca ←
we assigned to the actual result (Arouca)
30.41%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.36
0.43
-0.93
1.01
2.06
+1.05
Arouca dominated by xG (2.06 vs 0.43).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
Matheus Mendes
G
Matheus Mendes
G
12
I. James
D
I. James
D
21
Sergi Gómez
D
Sergi Gómez
D
14
S. Baseya
6'
D
S. Baseya
6'
D
55
Francisco Chissumba
9'
M
Francisco Chissumba
9'
M
6
D. Gui
75'
M
D. Gui
75'
M
35
Rayan
45'
M
Rayan
45'
M
20
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
M
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
M
22
Figueiredo
75'
F
Figueiredo
75'
F
19
D. Camara
62'
F
D. Camara
62'
F
10
Chiquinho
F
Chiquinho
F
Bench
7
André Vidigal
F
André Vidigal
F
11
C. Nuozzi
F
C. Nuozzi
F
25
Ian Luccas
45'
M
Ian Luccas
45'
M
91
Jhonatan
G
Jhonatan
G
26
Matheus França
28'
F
Matheus França
28'
F
17
S. Merheg
F
S. Merheg
F
8
Vasco Moreira
M
Vasco Moreira
M
9
Vivaldo Semedo
F
Vivaldo Semedo
F
4
Y. Bojang
81'
D
Y. Bojang
81'
D
93
Zé Rafael
15'
M
Zé Rafael
15'
M
2
Zoubdi
15'
F
Zoubdi
15'
F
12
I. de Arruabarrena
G
I. de Arruabarrena
G
18
O. Lebedenko
D
O. Lebedenko
D
3
José Fontán
67'
D
José Fontán
67'
D
15
Javi Sánchez
1 👟
D
Javi Sánchez
1 👟
D
28
Tiago Esgaio
D
Tiago Esgaio
D
89
Pedro Santos
61'
M
Pedro Santos
61'
M
6
E. van Ee
M
E. van Ee
M
7
N. Djouahra
M
N. Djouahra
M
8
T. Fukui
1 ⚽
79'
M
T. Fukui
1 ⚽
79'
M
19
A. Trezza
79'
M
A. Trezza
79'
M
17
Barbero
67'
F
Barbero
67'
F
Bench
24
B. Mansilla
11'
F
B. Mansilla
11'
F
5
B. Popović
23'
D
B. Popović
23'
D
4
Diogo Monteiro
D
Diogo Monteiro
D
23
D. Nandín
23'
F
D. Nandín
23'
F
9
F. Mayulu
F
F. Mayulu
F
20
G. Rukavina
F
G. Rukavina
F
1
J. Vinarčík
G
J. Vinarčík
G
14
Lee Hyun-Ju
11'
M
Lee Hyun-Ju
11'
M
2
L. Shahar
D
L. Shahar
D
37
Mario Climent
D
Mario Climent
D
21
Mateo Flores
29'
M
Mateo Flores
29'
M
10
Pablo Gozálbez
M
Pablo Gozálbez
M
Best on the pitch
Javi Sánchez
D · Arouca
8.22
1 👟
1 shots
· 113 pass
T. Fukui
M · Arouca
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 29 pass
O. Lebedenko
D · Arouca
7.61
1 shots
· 77 pass
José Fontán
D · Arouca
7.40
· 82 pass
Tiago Esgaio
D · Arouca
7.30
1 shots
· 57 pass
B. Popović
D · Arouca
7.28
· 20 pass
Alverca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Mendes | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| I. James | D | 90 | 6.59 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 51% | 0 | — | — |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 90 | 6.66 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 45% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Baseya | D | 6 | 5.27 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | 1 |
| Francisco Chissumba | M | 9 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Gui | M | 75 | 6.29 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Rayan | M | 45 | 5.96 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques | M | 90 | 6.43 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| Figueiredo | F | 75 | 5.89 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Camara | F | 62 | 6.51 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Chiquinho | F | 90 | 6.08 | — | — | 3 | 5 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| Ian Luccas | M | 45 | 6.35 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | 28 | 6.59 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Bojang | D | 81 | 6.82 | — | — | 0 | 33 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Zé Rafael | M | 15 | 6.43 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Zoubdi | F | 15 | 6.20 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
Arouca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. de Arruabarrena | G | 90 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| O. Lebedenko | D | 90 | 7.61 | — | — | 1 | 77 | 70% | 3 | — | — |
| José Fontán | D | 67 | 7.40 | — | — | 0 | 82 | 80% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 90 | 8.22 | — | 1 | 1 | 113 | 107% | 1 | — | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 61 | 7.02 | — | — | 0 | 82 | 77% | 0 | 1 | — |
| E. van Ee | M | 90 | 7.13 | — | — | 1 | 111 | 102% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Djouahra | M | 90 | 6.77 | — | — | 4 | 55 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Fukui | M | 79 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 29 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Trezza | M | 79 | 6.24 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Barbero | F | 67 | 6.25 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Mansilla | F | 11 | 6.43 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Popović | D | 23 | 7.28 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Nandín | F | 23 | 6.61 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 11 | 6.79 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Flores | M | 29 | 7.14 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alverca vs Arouca?
The final score was Alverca 0–1 Arouca.
What did the model predict before Alverca vs Arouca?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Alverca win, 29% to a draw, and 30% to an Arouca win.