Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 2
August 15, 2026 16:30
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
Ian Luccas
(ast. I. James)
58'
V. Semedo
(ast. Rayan Lucas)
62'
51'
L. Antonetti
69'
A. Marcus
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alverca a 36% win probability (draw 31%, Estrela 31%). The final result was Alverca 2–2 Estrela. In 2 previous meetings, Alverca have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Estrela.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
7
1.75
Actual xG
1.29
5
Saves
2
46%
Possession
54%
2
Corners
0
19
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
D. Gui
14'
17'
Luan Patrick
35'
S. Lekovic
43'
G. Doue
V. Semedo
44'
51'
L. Antonetti⚽
⚽Ian Luccas
· ast. I. James
58'
D. Gui
/ Rayan Lucas
59'
⚽V. Semedo
· ast. Rayan Lucas
62'
64'
E. Pedro Vanga
/
Robinho
64'
M. Scholze
/
J. Encada
64'
B. Souza
/
I. Stoica
69'
A. Marcus⚽
Chiquinho
74'
I. James
/ Chissumba
75'
B. Meupiyou
/ M. Essimi
83'
Ian Luccas
/ V. Moreira
83'
V. Semedo
/ S. J. Merheg
83'
85'
E. Pedro Vanga
88'
S. van Hooijdonk
/
L. Antonetti
90'
L. Mincarelli
/
Rafa Soares
Pre-match prediction
36.29%
Alverca
31.93%
X ←
31.77%
Estrela
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
31.93%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.38
1.75
-0.63
1.41
1.29
-0.12
Alverca dominated by xG (1.75 vs 1.29).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
Matheus Mendes
G
Matheus Mendes
G
33
Bastien Meupiyou
83'
D
Bastien Meupiyou
83'
D
4
Y. Bojang
D
Y. Bojang
D
14
S. Baseya
D
S. Baseya
D
12
I. James
1 👟
75'
M
I. James
1 👟
75'
M
25
Ian Luccas
1 ⚽
83'
M
Ian Luccas
1 ⚽
83'
M
6
D. Gui
59'
M
D. Gui
59'
M
2
Zoubdi
M
Zoubdi
M
22
Figueiredo
F
Figueiredo
F
10
Chiquinho
74'
F
Chiquinho
74'
F
9
Vivaldo Semedo
1 ⚽
83'
F
Vivaldo Semedo
1 ⚽
83'
F
Bench
30
Abderrahmane Soumare
M
Abderrahmane Soumare
M
11
C. Nuozzi
F
C. Nuozzi
F
20
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
D
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
D
55
Francisco Chissumba
15'
D
Francisco Chissumba
15'
D
15
I. Julian
D
I. Julian
D
91
Jhonatan
G
Jhonatan
G
19
M. Essimi Ateba
14'
F
M. Essimi Ateba
14'
F
35
Rayan
1 👟
31'
M
Rayan
1 👟
31'
M
17
S. Merheg
14'
F
S. Merheg
14'
F
27
Toni Tamarit
F
Toni Tamarit
F
8
Vasco Moreira
14'
M
Vasco Moreira
14'
M
18
Z. Kassary
M
Z. Kassary
M
24
Léo Linck
G
Léo Linck
G
55
Rafa Soares
89'
D
Rafa Soares
89'
D
5
S. Leković
D
S. Leković
D
30
Luan Patrick
D
Luan Patrick
D
17
Jefferson Encada
64'
D
Jefferson Encada
64'
D
8
Robinho
64'
M
Robinho
64'
M
39
Eddy Doue
M
Eddy Doue
M
14
L. Zvonarek
M
L. Zvonarek
M
10
I. Stoica
64'
F
I. Stoica
64'
F
37
L. Antonetti
1 ⚽
88'
F
L. Antonetti
1 ⚽
88'
F
99
A. Marcus
1 ⚽
F
A. Marcus
1 ⚽
F
Bench
79
A. Chernev
D
A. Chernev
D
80
Alisson
F
Alisson
F
4
Bernardo Schappo
D
Bernardo Schappo
D
93
B. Souza
26'
M
B. Souza
26'
M
22
David Grilo
G
David Grilo
G
51
Diogo Pinto
G
Diogo Pinto
G
71
E. Pedro Vanga
26'
M
E. Pedro Vanga
26'
M
3
L. Mincarelli Davin
1'
D
L. Mincarelli Davin
1'
D
21
M. Scholze
26'
D
M. Scholze
26'
D
78
Santiago Serra
M
Santiago Serra
M
9
S. van Hooijdonk
9'
F
S. van Hooijdonk
9'
F
28
Tom Moustier
M
Tom Moustier
M
Best on the pitch
A. Marcus
F · Estrela
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
I. James
M · Alverca
7.60
1 👟
· 26 pass
Rayan
M · Alverca
7.30
1 👟
· 9 pass
Ian Luccas
M · Alverca
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 32 pass
Y. Bojang
D · Alverca
7.20
· 47 pass
Figueiredo
F · Alverca
7.20
1 shots
· 29 pass
Alverca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Mendes | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Bastien Meupiyou | D | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Bojang | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Baseya | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 38% | — | — | — |
| I. James | M | 75 | 7.60 | — | 1 | — | 26 | 23% | 3 | — | — |
| Ian Luccas | M | 83 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 32 | 19% | — | — | — |
| D. Gui | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 25% | — | 1 | — |
| Zoubdi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 21 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Figueiredo | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Chiquinho | F | 74 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5% | 3 | — | 1 |
| Vivaldo Semedo | F | 83 | 6.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Francisco Chissumba | D | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Essimi Ateba | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Rayan | M | 31 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 9 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Merheg | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Vasco Moreira | M | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Linck | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Rafa Soares | D | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Leković | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 53 | 51% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Luan Patrick | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 70 | 66% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Eddy Doue | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Zvonarek | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Stoica | F | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Antonetti | F | 88 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 5 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Marcus | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Souza | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| E. Pedro Vanga | M | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Mincarelli Davin | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| M. Scholze | D | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| S. van Hooijdonk | F | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alverca vs Estrela?
The final score was Alverca 2–2 Estrela.
What did the model predict before Alverca vs Estrela?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Alverca win, 31% to a draw, and 31% to an Estrela win.