Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 19:00 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo

Alverca

#10 · 8 pts

1 – 4

Final score

Sporting CP

#3 · 15 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 62% win probability (draw 19%, Alverca 17%). The final result was Alverca 1–4 Sporting CP. In 2 previous meetings, Alverca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Sporting CP.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

9

0.83

Actual xG

1.33

31%

Possession

69%

3

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

17.63%

Alverca

19.9%

X

62.47%

Sporting ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP) 62.47% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Alverca

0.91

0.83

-0.08

Sporting

2.11

1.33

-0.78

Sporting CP dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.83). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	21
2	Benfica	7	16
3	Sporting CP	7	15
4	Santa Clara	7	15
5	Arouca	7	11
6	SC Braga	6	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	11
8	Estrela	7	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	8
10	Alverca	7	8
11	Maritimo	7	8
12	Moreirense	7	8
13	Famalicao	7	7
14	Vitória SC	7	5
15	Nacional	7	4
16	Rio Ave	7	4
17	Casa Pia	7	4
18	Estoril	7	2