Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 19:00 FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca

#18 · 0 pts

1 – 4

Final score

Sporting CP

#5 · 1 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 62% win probability (draw 19%, Alverca 17%). The final result was Alverca 1–4 Sporting CP. In 1 previous meetings, Alverca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sporting CP.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

9

0.83

Actual xG

1.33

31%

Possession

69%

3

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

17.63%

Alverca

19.9%

X

62.47%

Sporting ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP) 62.47% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Alverca

0.91

0.83

-0.08

Sporting

2.11

1.33

-0.78

Sporting CP dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.83). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	1	3
2	GIL Vicente	1	3
3	Maritimo	1	3
4	Arouca	1	3
5	Sporting CP	1	1
6	SC Braga	1	1
7	Nacional	1	1
8	Academico Viseu	1	1
9	Famalicao	1	1
10	Estrela	1	1
11	Estoril	1	1
12	Santa Clara	1	1
13	Moreirense	1	1
14	Benfica	1	1
15	Vitória SC	1	0
16	Rio Ave	1	0
17	Casa Pia	1	0
18	Alverca	1	0