Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 20:00

Alverca

#11 · 39 pts

1 – 4

Final score

Sporting CP

#2 · 79 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 62% win probability (draw 19%, Alverca 17%). The final result was Alverca 1–4 Sporting CP. In 1 previous meetings, Alverca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sporting CP.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

9

0.83

Actual xG

1.33

31%

Possession

69%

3

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

17.63%

Alverca

19.9%

X

62.47%

Sporting ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP) 62.47% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Alverca

0.91

0.83

-0.08

Sporting

2.11

1.33

-0.78

Sporting CP dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.83). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	33	85
2	Sporting CP	33	79
3	Benfica	33	77
4	SC Braga	33	58
5	Famalicao	33	53
6	GIL Vicente	33	50
7	Moreirense	33	42
8	Guimaraes	33	42
9	Estoril	33	39
10	Arouca	33	39
11	Alverca	33	39
12	Santa Clara	33	36
13	Rio Ave	33	35
14	Nacional	33	31
15	Estrela	33	29
16	Casa Pia	33	29
17	Tondela	33	28
18	AVS	33	20