Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 19:00 FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca

#11 · 39 pts

1 – 4

Final score

Sporting CP

#2 · 82 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 62% win probability (draw 19%, Alverca 17%). The final result was Alverca 1–4 Sporting CP. In 1 previous meetings, Alverca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sporting CP.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

9

0.83

Actual xG

1.33

31%

Possession

69%

3

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

17.63%

Alverca

19.9%

X

62.47%

Sporting ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP) 62.47% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Alverca

0.91

0.83

-0.08

Sporting

2.11

1.33

-0.78

Sporting CP dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.83). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	88
2	Sporting CP	34	82
3	Benfica	34	80
4	SC Braga	34	59
5	Famalicao	34	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	50
7	Moreirense	34	43
8	Arouca	34	42
9	Guimaraes	34	42
10	Estoril	34	39
11	Alverca	34	39
12	Rio Ave	34	36
13	Santa Clara	34	36
14	Nacional	34	34
15	Estrela	34	30
16	Casa Pia	34	30
17	Tondela	34	28
18	AVS	34	21