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Ararat-Armenia - AZ Alkmaar

Europa League October 22, 2026 18:45
Ararat-Armenia
#33 · 0 pts
vs
AZ Alkmaar
#26 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.09%
Win
Ararat-Armenia
18.92%
Draw
50.99%
Win
AZ Alkmaar
1.9
Expected xG
2.64

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–2 (7.32%)
1X2 Result
1 30%
X 19%
2 51%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (14 picks)
1X 49%
X2 70%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 82%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives AZ Alkmaar a 50% win probability, against 18% for a draw and 30% for Ararat-Armenia. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.6 for AZ Alkmaar (total 4.5), with a 90% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 7.32% probability.

Season Stats

Ararat-Armenia
1W 1D 1L
AZ Alkmaar
0W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.0
1.7
Conceded
1.0
1.3
Shots OT
2.0
1.7
Corners
5.0
29%
Poss.
55%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
0%
33%
O 2.5
0%
67%
BTTS
0%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 3 matches in Europa League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Ararat-Armenia
1W 0D 1L · at home
AZ Alkmaar
0W 0D 1L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.0
2.0
Conceded
1.0
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
0%
50%
O 1.5
0%
50%
O 2.5
0%
50%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
0%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
100%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Ararat-Armenia AZ Alkmaar →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.1% 2.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1.1%
1 2.0% 5.4% 7.1% 6.2% 4.1% 2.2%
2 1.9% 5.1% 6.7% 5.9% 3.9% 2.1%
3 1.2% 3.2% 4.2% 3.7% 2.5% 1.3%
4 0.6% 1.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6%
5 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Recent form

Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia
L Sparta Praha 1–4
W Universitatea Craiova 1–0
D Universitatea Craiova 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 41%
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
L Sunderland 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia
Attack
38
Defence
72
Form
34
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
Attack
62
Defence
71
Form
55
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Juventus Juventus 1 3
2 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1 3
3 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 1 3
4 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1 3
5 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 1 3
6 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 1 3
7 Benfica Benfica 1 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1 3
9 OFI OFI 1 3
10 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1 3
11 Lyon Lyon 1 3
12 Torreense Torreense 1 3
13 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 1 3
14 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 1 3
15 Sunderland Sunderland 1 3
16 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 1 3
17 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1 1
18 Rennes Rennes 1 1
19 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1 1
20 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 1
21 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 1 0
22 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1 0
23 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1 0
24 Lillestrom Lillestrom 1 0
25 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1 0
27 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1 0
28 Celtic Celtic 1 0
29 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 1 0
30 AC Milan AC Milan 1 0
31 Celje Celje 1 0
32 Marseille Marseille 1 0
33 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 1 0
34 Plzen Plzen 1 0
35 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1 0
36 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 30% win probability, 18% for a draw, and 50% for an AZ Alkmaar win.
How many goals are expected in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 1.9, AZ Alkmaar 2.6 (total 4.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 90%.
What is the most likely score in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.32%.