Argentina 3–1 Switzerland — pre-match prediction — World Cup — July 12, 2026

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World Cup · Quarter-finals July 12, 2026 03:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata

Argentina

#1 · 9 pts

3 – 1

Final score

Switzerland

#1 · 7 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Argentina

A. Mac Allister (ast. L. Messi) 10'

J. Alvarez (ast. J. Lopez) 112'

L. Martinez 120'+1

67' (ast. R. Rodriguez) D. Ndoye

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Argentina a 62% win probability (draw 22%, Switzerland 14%). The final result was Argentina 3–1 Switzerland.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.96

Actual xG

0.53

Saves

59%

Possession

41%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

⚽A. Mac Allister · ast. L. Messi

10'

44'

B. Embolo

67'

ast. R. Rodriguez · D. Ndoye⚽

72'

B. Embolo

72'

B. Embolo

↕ N. Tagliafico / N. Gonzalez

78'

↕ R. de Paul / L. Martinez

85'

↕ N. Molina / G. Montiel

85'

86'

S. Widmer / D. Sow ↕

86'

Z. Amdouni / D. Ndoye ↕

86'

M. Muheim / F. Rieder ↕

90'+5

E. Comert / R. Rodriguez ↕

↕ E. Fernandez / T. Almada

91'

96'

A. Jashari / D. Zakaria ↕

T. Almada

97'

L. Martinez

98'

↕ C. Romero / N. Otamendi

106'

↕ L. Paredes / J. Lopez

110'

⚽J. Alvarez · ast. J. Lopez

112'

J. Lopez

114'

115'

R. Vargas / R. Freuler ↕

⚽L. Martinez

120'+1

Pre-match prediction

62.93%

Argentina ←

22.51%

14.57%

Switzerland

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Argentina) 62.93% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Argentina

2.38

1.96

-0.42

Switzerland

0.94

0.53

-0.41

Argentina dominated by xG (1.96 vs 0.53). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

Lineups

Argentina 4-1-3-2

E. Martínez G 7.30

N. Tagliafico 78' D 6.60

Lisandro Martínez D 7.20

C. Romero D 7.00

N. Molina 85' D 6.30

L. Paredes M 7.30

A. Mac Allister 1 ⚽ M 7.70

E. Fernández M 6.50

R. De Paul 85' M 6.70

J. Álvarez 1 ⚽ F 7.70

L. Messi 1 👟 F 8.90

Bench

E. Palacios M

F. Medina D

G. Lo Celso M

G. Montiel 39' D 6.20

G. Rulli G

G. Simeone F

J. López 1 👟 14' F 6.30

J. Musso G

Lautaro Martínez 1 ⚽ 39' F 6.90

M. Senesi D

N. González 46' F 7.20

N. Otamendi 19' D 6.90

N. Paz F

T. Almada 34' M 7.30

V. Barco M

Switzerland 4-2-3-1

G. Kobel G 6.60

Ricardo Rodríguez 1 👟 D 7.30

M. Akanji D 6.00

N. Elvedi D 6.30

D. Zakaria D 6.20

G. Xhaka M 7.50

R. Freuler M 6.60

D. Ndoye 1 ⚽ 86' M 7.20

F. Rieder 86' M 6.30

Djibril Sow 86' M 6.30

B. Embolo 72' F 5.90

Bench

A. Amenda D

Ardon Jashari 28' M 6.20

C. Fassnacht M

C. Itten F

E. Cömert 29' D 6.30

Luca Jaquez D

M. Aebischer M

Miro Muheim 38' D 6.20

M. Keller G

N. Okafor F

R. Vargas 9' M 6.50

S. Widmer 38' D 6.30

Y. Mvogo G

Z. Amdouni 38' F 6.20

Best on the pitch

L. Messi

F · Argentina

8.90

1 👟

2 shots · 68 pass

A. Mac Allister

M · Argentina

7.70

1 ⚽

3 shots · 53 pass

J. Álvarez

F · Argentina

7.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 41 pass

G. Xhaka

M · Switzerland

7.50

3 shots · 72 pass

E. Martínez

G · Argentina

7.30

· 42 pass

T. Almada

M · Argentina

7.30

3 shots · 27 pass

Argentina — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
E. Martínez	G	124	7.30	—	—	—	42	27%	—	—	—
N. Tagliafico	D	78	6.60	—	—	—	22	18%	—	—	—
Lisandro Martínez	D	124	7.20	—	—	1	76	64%	4	—	—
C. Romero	D	105	7.00	—	—	1	43	41%	2	—	—
N. Molina	D	85	6.30	—	—	1	34	29%	1	—	—
L. Paredes	M	110	7.30	—	—	—	119	112%	1	—	—
A. Mac Allister	M	124	7.70	1	—	3	53	50%	3	—	—
E. Fernández	M	90	6.50	—	—	—	63	61%	—	—	—
R. De Paul	M	85	6.70	—	—	—	36	31%	—	—	—
J. Álvarez	F	124	7.70	1	—	2	41	36%	2	—	—
L. Messi	F	124	8.90	—	1	2	68	59%	3	—	—
G. Montiel	D	39	6.20	—	—	—	18	14%	—	—	—
J. López	F	14	6.30	—	1	—	3	2%	—	1	—
Lautaro Martínez	F	39	6.90	1	—	1	6	5%	—	1	—
N. González	F	46	7.20	—	—	1	28	27%	—	—	—
N. Otamendi	D	19	6.90	—	—	—	6	5%	1	—	—
T. Almada	M	34	7.30	—	—	3	27	27%	—	1	—

Switzerland — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
G. Kobel	G	124	6.60	—	—	—	38	19%	—	—	—
Ricardo Rodríguez	D	95	7.30	—	1	—	38	37%	2	—	—
M. Akanji	D	124	6.00	—	—	—	58	50%	1	—	—
N. Elvedi	D	124	6.30	—	—	—	59	55%	1	—	—
D. Zakaria	D	96	6.20	—	—	—	47	39%	2	—	—
G. Xhaka	M	124	7.50	—	—	3	72	67%	—	—	—
R. Freuler	M	115	6.60	—	—	—	55	51%	3	—	—
D. Ndoye	M	86	7.20	1	—	2	21	13%	—	—	—
F. Rieder	M	86	6.30	—	—	—	23	16%	1	—	—
Djibril Sow	M	86	6.30	—	—	1	29	25%	—	—	—
B. Embolo	F	72	5.90	—	—	1	10	9%	—	2	1
Ardon Jashari	M	28	6.20	—	—	1	5	4%	—	—	—
E. Cömert	D	29	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	1	—	—
Miro Muheim	D	38	6.20	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—
R. Vargas	M	9	6.50	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
S. Widmer	D	38	6.30	—	—	—	7	4%	1	—	—
Z. Amdouni	F	38	6.20	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Argentina vs Switzerland?

The final score was Argentina 3–1 Switzerland.

What did the model predict before Argentina vs Switzerland?

The model assigned 62% probability to a Argentina win, 22% to a draw, and 14% to an Switzerland win.