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Armenia - Montenegro

UEFA Nations League September 28, 2026 18:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Armenia
#3 · 0 pts
vs
Montenegro
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
41.57%
Win
Armenia
19.68%
Draw
38.75%
Win
Montenegro
2.22
Expected xG
2.2

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (7.2%)
1X2 Result
1 42%
X 20%
2 39%
Double Chance
1X 61%
X2 58%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Armenia a 41% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 38% for Montenegro. Expected goals are 2.2 for Armenia and 2.2 for Montenegro (total 4.4), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 7.2% probability.

Season Stats

Armenia
2W 1D 5L
Montenegro
1W 0D 5L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
0.7
2.2
Conceded
1.5
4.9
Shots OT
3.3
7.4
Corners
5.3
54%
Poss.
43%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
67%
63%
O 2.5
33%
50%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
13%
O 3.5
13%
BTTS
Armenia
1W 0D 3L · at home
Montenegro
0W 0D 3L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.0
1.8
Conceded
1.3
25%
Win %
0%
25%
Win or Draw
0%
75%
O 1.5
33%
50%
O 2.5
0%
25%
O 3.5
0%
25%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
75%
Failed to Score
100%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Armenia Montenegro →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5%
1 2.7% 5.9% 6.5% 4.7% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.0% 6.5% 7.2% 5.3% 2.9% 1.3%
3 2.2% 4.8% 5.3% 3.9% 2.1% 0.9%
4 1.2% 2.7% 3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5%
5 0.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Recent form

Armenia Armenia
L Georgia 6–1
L Georgia 0–3
W Latvia 1–2
L Faroe Islands 0–1
L FYR Macedonia 0–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Montenegro Montenegro
W Türkiye 3–1
L Iceland 0–2
L Wales 1–0
L Türkiye 1–0
L Wales 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Armenia Armenia
Attack
32
Defence
61
Form
18
Montenegro Montenegro
Attack
45
Defence
60
Form
43
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Latvia Latvia 0 0
2 Montenegro Montenegro 0 0
3 Armenia Armenia 0 0
4 Cyprus Cyprus 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Armenia Montenegro
Current #3 #2
→ Armenia #1 #3
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Montenegro #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Armenia vs Montenegro?
The model gives Armenia a 41% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 38% for an Montenegro win.
How many goals are expected in Armenia vs Montenegro?
Expected goals: Armenia 2.2, Montenegro 2.2 (total 4.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Armenia vs Montenegro?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.2%.