← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28 April 06, 2026 21:45
Arouca
#10 · 39 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Estoril
#9 · 39 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Arouca
I. Barbero (ast. N. Djouahra) 13'
J. Fontan (ast. I. Barbero) 45'+2
P. Gozalbez (ast. Tiago Esgaio) 55'
3' (ast. J. Carvalho) Xeka
32' (ast. A. Lacximicant) Y. Begraoui

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Estoril 26%). The final result was Arouca 3–2 Estoril. In 1 previous meetings, Arouca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estoril.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
3
1.98
Actual xG
1.16
1
Saves
1
46%
Possession
54%
3
Corners
3
14
Tackles
10
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
3'
ast. J. Carvalho · Xeka⚽
⚽I. Barbero · ast. N. Djouahra
13'
23'
J. Holsgrove
32'
ast. A. Lacximicant · Y. Begraoui⚽
⚽J. Fontan · ast. I. Barbero
45'+2
⚽P. Gozalbez · ast. Tiago Esgaio
55'
P. Gozalbez
56'
65'
P. Carvalho / P. Amaral ↕
65'
A. Marques / Xeka ↕
65'
Pizzi / J. Carvalho ↕
71'
A. Lacximicant
74'
Peixinho / A. Lacximicant ↕
↕ P. Gozalbez / Puche
77'
↕ T. Fukui / B. Mansilla
83'
↕ I. Barbero / Pedro Santos
83'
I. De Arruabarrena
90'+1
Puche
90'+7
↕ N. Djouahra / F. Mayulu
90'
↕ H. Lee / M. Flores
90'
Pre-match prediction
51.26%
Arouca ←
22.22%
X
26.52%
Estoril
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Arouca) 51.26% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Arouca
1.92
1.98
+0.06
Estoril
1.21
1.16
-0.05
Arouca dominated by xG (1.98 vs 1.16). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
Arouca Arouca 4-2-3-1
12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena Ignacio de Arruabarrena G 5.60
25 Bas Kuipers Bas Kuipers D 6.70
3 José Fontán José Fontán 1 ⚽ D 7.20
15 Javi Sánchez Javi Sánchez D 6.60
28 Tiago Esgaio Tiago Esgaio 1 👟 D 7.20
21 Taichi Fukui Taichi Fukui 83' M 6.90
22 Espen Van Ee Espen Van Ee M 6.70
7 Naïs Djouahra Naïs Djouahra 1 👟 89' M 7.70
14
H. Lee 89' M 6.90
10 Pablo Gozálbez Pablo Gozálbez 1 ⚽ 77' M 7.20
17 Barbero Barbero 1 ⚽ 1 👟 83' F 8.00
Bench
46 Mateo Flores Mateo Flores 9' M 6.30
89
Pedro Santos 16' M 6.90
11
Puche 13' F 6.50
Estoril Estoril 4-3-1-2
1
G 5.90
24 Pedro Amaral Pedro Amaral 65' D 5.70
25 Felix Bacher Felix Bacher D 6.30
5 Antef Tsoungui Antef Tsoungui D 6.00
2 Ricard Sánchez Ricard Sánchez D 6.20
10 J. Holsgrove J. Holsgrove M 6.90
8 Xeka Xeka 1 ⚽ 65' M 7.50
6
Jandro M 6.30
12 João Carvalho João Carvalho 1 👟 65' M 6.30
19 André Lacximicant André Lacximicant 1 👟 74' F 6.50
14 Y. Begraoui Y. Begraoui 1 ⚽ F 7.60
Bench
22 Pedro Carvalho Pedro Carvalho 25' D 6.70
70 Peixinho Peixinho 16' F 6.20
21 Pizzi Pizzi 25' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
Barbero
Barbero
F · Arouca
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots · 14 pass
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra
M · Arouca
7.70
1 👟
· 23 pass
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots · 27 pass
Xeka
Xeka
M · Estoril
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 36 pass
José Fontán
José Fontán
D · Arouca
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 57 pass
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio
D · Arouca
7.20
1 👟
1 shots · 36 pass
Arouca Arouca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Ignacio de Arruabarrena G 90 5.60 — — — 46 29% — 1 —
Bas Kuipers D 90 6.70 — — — 15 13% 3 — —
José Fontán D 90 7.20 1 — 1 57 48% 1 — —
Javi Sánchez D 90 6.60 — — — 52 45% 1 — —
Tiago Esgaio D 90 7.20 — 1 1 36 28% — — —
Taichi Fukui M 83 6.90 — — 1 40 33% — — —
Espen Van Ee M 90 6.70 — — — 48 45% 3 — —
Naïs Djouahra M 89 7.70 — 1 — 23 19% 1 — —
H. Lee M 89 6.90 — — — 33 30% — — —
Pablo Gozálbez M 77 7.20 1 — 2 24 18% 4 1 —
Barbero F 83 8.00 1 1 4 14 12% — — —
Mateo Flores M 9 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Pedro Santos M 16 6.90 — — — 8 7% 1 — —
Puche F 13 6.50 — — 2 6 5% — 1 —
Estoril Estoril — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.90 — — — 30 24% — — —
Pedro Amaral D 65 5.70 — — — 27 20% — — —
Felix Bacher D 90 6.30 — — — 74 67% 2 — —
Antef Tsoungui D 90 6.00 — — — 59 51% — — —
Ricard Sánchez D 90 6.20 — — 2 31 29% 3 — —
J. Holsgrove M 90 6.90 — — — 92 73% — 1 —
Xeka M 65 7.50 1 — 1 36 28% 2 — —
Jandro M 90 6.30 — — — 38 33% — — —
João Carvalho M 65 6.30 — 1 1 28 19% 1 — —
André Lacximicant F 74 6.50 — 1 2 10 7% — 1 —
Y. Begraoui F 90 7.60 1 — 3 27 21% 1 — —
Pedro Carvalho D 25 6.70 — — 1 8 6% 1 — —
Peixinho F 16 6.20 — — — 5 5% — — —
Pizzi M 25 6.50 — — — 12 11% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estoril?
The final score was Arouca 3–2 Estoril.
What did the model predict before Arouca vs Estoril?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Arouca win, 22% to a draw, and 26% to an Estoril win.