✓Model correct — prediction Arouca
I. Barbero
(ast. N. Djouahra)
13'
J. Fontan
(ast. I. Barbero)
45'+2
P. Gozalbez
(ast. Tiago Esgaio)
55'
3'
(ast. J. Carvalho)
Xeka
32'
(ast. A. Lacximicant)
Y. Begraoui
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Estoril 26%). The final result was Arouca 3–2 Estoril. In 1 previous meetings, Arouca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estoril.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
3
1.98
Actual xG
1.16
1
Saves
1
46%
Possession
54%
3
Corners
3
14
Tackles
10
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
3'
ast. J. Carvalho ·
Xeka⚽
⚽I. Barbero
· ast. N. Djouahra
13'
23'
J. Holsgrove
32'
ast. A. Lacximicant ·
Y. Begraoui⚽
⚽J. Fontan
· ast. I. Barbero
45'+2
⚽P. Gozalbez
· ast. Tiago Esgaio
55'
P. Gozalbez
56'
65'
P. Carvalho
/
P. Amaral
65'
A. Marques
/
Xeka
65'
Pizzi
/
J. Carvalho
71'
A. Lacximicant
74'
Peixinho
/
A. Lacximicant
P. Gozalbez
/ Puche
77'
T. Fukui
/ B. Mansilla
83'
I. Barbero
/ Pedro Santos
83'
I. De Arruabarrena
90'+1
Puche
90'+7
N. Djouahra
/ F. Mayulu
90'
H. Lee
/ M. Flores
90'
Pre-match prediction
51.26%
Arouca ←
22.22%
X
26.52%
Estoril
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Arouca)
51.26%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.92
1.98
+0.06
1.21
1.16
-0.05
Arouca dominated by xG (1.98 vs 1.16).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
G
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
G
25
Bas Kuipers
D
Bas Kuipers
D
3
José Fontán
1 ⚽
D
José Fontán
1 ⚽
D
15
Javi Sánchez
D
Javi Sánchez
D
28
Tiago Esgaio
1 👟
D
Tiago Esgaio
1 👟
D
21
Taichi Fukui
83'
M
Taichi Fukui
83'
M
22
Espen Van Ee
M
Espen Van Ee
M
7
Naïs Djouahra
1 👟
89'
M
Naïs Djouahra
1 👟
89'
M
14
Lee Hyun-Ju
89'
M
Lee Hyun-Ju
89'
M
10
Pablo Gozálbez
1 ⚽
77'
M
Pablo Gozálbez
1 ⚽
77'
M
17
Barbero
1 ⚽
1 👟
83'
F
Barbero
1 ⚽
1 👟
83'
F
Bench
46
Mateo Flores
9'
M
Mateo Flores
9'
M
89
Pedro Santos
16'
M
Pedro Santos
16'
M
11
Puche
13'
F
1
G
24
Pedro Amaral
65'
D
Pedro Amaral
65'
D
25
Felix Bacher
D
Felix Bacher
D
5
Antef Tsoungui
D
Antef Tsoungui
D
2
Ricard Sánchez
D
Ricard Sánchez
D
10
J. Holsgrove
M
J. Holsgrove
M
8
Xeka
1 ⚽
65'
M
Xeka
1 ⚽
65'
M
6
Jandro
M
12
João Carvalho
1 👟
65'
M
João Carvalho
1 👟
65'
M
19
André Lacximicant
1 👟
74'
F
André Lacximicant
1 👟
74'
F
14
Y. Begraoui
1 ⚽
F
Y. Begraoui
1 ⚽
F
Bench
22
Pedro Carvalho
25'
D
Pedro Carvalho
25'
D
70
Peixinho
16'
F
Peixinho
16'
F
21
Pizzi
25'
M
Pizzi
25'
M
Best on the pitch
Barbero
F · Arouca
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 14 pass
Naïs Djouahra
M · Arouca
7.70
1 👟
· 23 pass
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 27 pass
Xeka
M · Estoril
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 36 pass
José Fontán
D · Arouca
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 57 pass
Tiago Esgaio
D · Arouca
7.20
1 👟
1 shots
· 36 pass
Arouca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio de Arruabarrena | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 29% | — | 1 | — |
| Bas Kuipers | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| José Fontán | D | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 57 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 52 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 36 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Taichi Fukui | M | 83 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Espen Van Ee | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | 3 | — | — |
| Naïs Djouahra | M | 89 | 7.70 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 77 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 24 | 18% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Barbero | F | 83 | 8.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Flores | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Puche | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
Estoril — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | — | — | — | |
| Pedro Amaral | D | 65 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Felix Bacher | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 74 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| Antef Tsoungui | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | — | — | — |
| Ricard Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Holsgrove | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 92 | 73% | — | 1 | — |
| Xeka | M | 65 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Jandro | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| João Carvalho | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 28 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| André Lacximicant | F | 74 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Begraoui | F | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 27 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Carvalho | D | 25 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Peixinho | F | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Pizzi | M | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estoril?
The final score was Arouca 3–2 Estoril.
What did the model predict before Arouca vs Estoril?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Arouca win, 22% to a draw, and 26% to an Estoril win.