Arouca 3–2 Estoril — pre-match prediction — Primeira Liga — April 06, 2026

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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28 April 06, 2026 19:45 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca

#5 · 10 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Estoril

#17 · 2 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Arouca

I. Barbero (ast. N. Djouahra) 13'

J. Fontan (ast. I. Barbero) 45'+2

P. Gozalbez (ast. Tiago Esgaio) 55'

3' (ast. J. Carvalho) Xeka

32' (ast. A. Lacximicant) Y. Begraoui

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Estoril 26%). The final result was Arouca 3–2 Estoril. In 2 previous meetings, Arouca have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Estoril.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.98

Actual xG

1.16

Saves

46%

Possession

54%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. J. Carvalho · Xeka⚽

⚽I. Barbero · ast. N. Djouahra

13'

23'

J. Holsgrove

32'

ast. A. Lacximicant · Y. Begraoui⚽

⚽J. Fontan · ast. I. Barbero

45'+2

⚽P. Gozalbez · ast. Tiago Esgaio

55'

P. Gozalbez

56'

65'

P. Carvalho / P. Amaral ↕

65'

A. Marques / Xeka ↕

65'

Pizzi / J. Carvalho ↕

71'

A. Lacximicant

74'

Peixinho / A. Lacximicant ↕

↕ P. Gozalbez / Puche

77'

↕ T. Fukui / B. Mansilla

83'

↕ I. Barbero / Pedro Santos

83'

I. De Arruabarrena

90'+1

Puche

90'+7

↕ N. Djouahra / F. Mayulu

90'

↕ H. Lee / M. Flores

90'

Pre-match prediction

51.26%

Arouca ←

22.22%

26.52%

Estoril

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Arouca) 51.26% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Arouca

1.92

1.98

+0.06

Estoril

1.21

1.16

-0.05

Arouca dominated by xG (1.98 vs 1.16). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	18
2	Santa Clara	6	14
3	Benfica	5	13
4	Sporting CP	5	13
5	Arouca	6	10
6	Estrela	5	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	8
8	GIL Vicente	4	7
9	SC Braga	4	7
10	Maritimo	5	7
11	Alverca	6	5
12	Vitória SC	6	4
13	Nacional	6	4
14	Moreirense	5	4
15	Famalicao	5	3
16	Rio Ave	5	3
17	Estoril	5	2
18	Casa Pia	6	1

Lineups

Arouca 4-2-3-1

I. de Arruabarrena G 5.60

B. Kuipers D 6.70

José Fontán 1 ⚽ D 7.20

Javi Sánchez D 6.60

Tiago Esgaio 1 👟 D 7.20

T. Fukui 83' M 6.90

E. van Ee M 6.70

N. Djouahra 1 👟 89' M 7.70

Lee Hyun-Ju 89' M 6.90

Pablo Gozálbez 1 ⚽ 77' M 7.20

Barbero 1 ⚽ 1 👟 83' F 8.00

Bench

Mateo Flores 9' M 6.30

Pedro Santos 16' M 6.90

Puche 13' F 6.50

Estoril 4-3-1-2

G 5.90

Pedro Amaral 65' D 5.70

F. Bacher D 6.30

A. Tsoungui D 6.00

Ricard Sánchez D 6.20

J. Holsgrove M 6.90

Xeka 1 ⚽ 65' M 7.50

Jandro Orellana M 6.30

João Carvalho 1 👟 65' M 6.30

André Lacximicant 1 👟 74' F 6.50

Y. Begraoui 1 ⚽ F 7.60

Bench

Pedro Carvalho 25' D 6.70

Peixinho 16' F 6.20

Pizzi 25' M 6.50

Best on the pitch

Barbero

F · Arouca

8.00

1 ⚽ 1 👟

4 shots · 14 pass

N. Djouahra

M · Arouca

7.70

1 👟

· 23 pass

Y. Begraoui

F · Estoril

7.60

1 ⚽

3 shots · 27 pass

Xeka

M · Estoril

7.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 36 pass

José Fontán

D · Arouca

7.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 57 pass

Tiago Esgaio

D · Arouca

7.20

1 👟

1 shots · 36 pass

Arouca — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
I. de Arruabarrena	G	90	5.60	—	—	—	46	29%	—	1	—
B. Kuipers	D	90	6.70	—	—	—	15	13%	3	—	—
José Fontán	D	90	7.20	1	—	1	57	48%	1	—	—
Javi Sánchez	D	90	6.60	—	—	—	52	45%	1	—	—
Tiago Esgaio	D	90	7.20	—	1	1	36	28%	—	—	—
T. Fukui	M	83	6.90	—	—	1	40	33%	—	—	—
E. van Ee	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	48	45%	3	—	—
N. Djouahra	M	89	7.70	—	1	—	23	19%	1	—	—
Lee Hyun-Ju	M	89	6.90	—	—	—	33	30%	—	—	—
Pablo Gozálbez	M	77	7.20	1	—	2	24	18%	4	1	—
Barbero	F	83	8.00	1	1	4	14	12%	—	—	—
Mateo Flores	M	9	6.30	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
Pedro Santos	M	16	6.90	—	—	—	8	7%	1	—	—
Puche	F	13	6.50	—	—	2	6	5%	—	1	—

Estoril — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	5.90	—	—	—	30	24%	—	—	—
Pedro Amaral	D	65	5.70	—	—	—	27	20%	—	—	—
F. Bacher	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	74	67%	2	—	—
A. Tsoungui	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	59	51%	—	—	—
Ricard Sánchez	D	90	6.20	—	—	2	31	29%	3	—	—
J. Holsgrove	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	92	73%	—	1	—
Xeka	M	65	7.50	1	—	1	36	28%	2	—	—
Jandro Orellana	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	38	33%	—	—	—
João Carvalho	M	65	6.30	—	1	1	28	19%	1	—	—
André Lacximicant	F	74	6.50	—	1	2	10	7%	—	1	—
Y. Begraoui	F	90	7.60	1	—	3	27	21%	1	—	—
Pedro Carvalho	D	25	6.70	—	—	1	8	6%	1	—	—
Peixinho	F	16	6.20	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
Pizzi	M	25	6.50	—	—	—	12	11%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Arouca vs Estoril?

The final score was Arouca 3–2 Estoril.

What did the model predict before Arouca vs Estoril?

The model assigned 51% probability to a Arouca win, 22% to a draw, and 26% to an Estoril win.