Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 30
April 19, 2026 18:30
Tiago Esgaio
46'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 48% win probability (draw 26%, Estrela 25%). The final result was Arouca 1–0 Estrela. In 1 previous meetings, Arouca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estrela.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
11
3
Shots on target
3
0.84
Actual xG
1.25
3
Saves
2
50%
Possession
50%
4
Corners
3
10
Tackles
13
5
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
23'
Luan Patrick
/
Bernardo Schappo
E. van Ee
32'
37'
J. Sanchez
44'
⚽Tiago Esgaio
46'
E. van Ee
/ Pedro Santos
61'
P. Gozalbez
/ A. Trezza
61'
70'
J. Meireles
/
I. Stoica
70'
Jovane
/
K. Jansson
H. Lee
/ M. Flores
70'
Pedro Santos
72'
N. Djouahra
/ M. Rocha
75'
I. Barbero
/ Puche
75'
80'
P. Moreira
/
G. Doue
80'
S. van Hooijdonk
/
Rodrigo Pinho
M. Flores
90'+5
M. Rocha
90'+6
90'
J. Meireles
Pre-match prediction
48.15%
Arouca ←
26.78%
X
25.07%
Estrela
we assigned to the actual result (Arouca)
48.15%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.47
0.84
-0.63
1.00
1.25
+0.25
Estrela dominated by xG (1.25 vs 0.84).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
G
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
G
25
Bas Kuipers
D
Bas Kuipers
D
3
José Fontán
D
José Fontán
D
15
Javi Sánchez
D
Javi Sánchez
D
28
Tiago Esgaio
1 ⚽
D
Tiago Esgaio
1 ⚽
D
22
Espen Van Ee
61'
M
Espen Van Ee
61'
M
21
Taichi Fukui
M
Taichi Fukui
M
7
Naïs Djouahra
75'
M
Naïs Djouahra
75'
M
14
H. Lee
69'
M
10
Pablo Gozálbez
61'
M
Pablo Gozálbez
61'
M
17
Barbero
75'
F
Barbero
75'
F
Bench
19
A. Trezza
36'
F
A. Trezza
36'
F
46
Mateo Flores
28'
M
Mateo Flores
28'
M
4
Matías Rocha
22'
D
89
Pedro Santos
36'
M
11
Puche
22'
F
40
G
24
Bruno Langa
D
Bruno Langa
D
14
Bernardo Schappo
23'
D
Bernardo Schappo
23'
D
4
Stefan Leković
D
Stefan Leković
D
21
Max Scholze
D
Max Scholze
D
8
Robinho
M
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
70'
M
Kevin Höög Jansson
70'
M
39
Eddy Doué
80'
M
Eddy Doué
80'
M
10
Ianis Stoica
70'
F
Ianis Stoica
70'
F
9
Rodrigo Pinho
80'
F
Rodrigo Pinho
80'
F
99
A. Marcus
F
A. Marcus
F
Bench
63
Alex Sola
M
Alex Sola
M
18
Jorge Meireles
27'
F
Jorge Meireles
27'
F
11
Jovane Cabral
27'
F
Jovane Cabral
27'
F
30
Luan Patrick
74'
D
Luan Patrick
74'
D
83
Otavio
D
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
17'
F
Sydney van Hooijdonk
17'
F
Best on the pitch
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
G · Arouca
8.30
· 33 pass
A. Marcus
F · Estrela
7.70
· 25 pass
Tiago Esgaio
D · Arouca
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 24 pass
Rodrigo Pinho
F · Estrela
7.30
7 shots
· 9 pass
José Fontán
D · Arouca
7.20
· 63 pass
Stefan Leković
D · Estrela
7.20
1 shots
· 53 pass
Arouca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio de Arruabarrena | G | 97 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Bas Kuipers | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| José Fontán | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 63 | 60% | — | — | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 97 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 24 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Espen Van Ee | M | 61 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 46% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Taichi Fukui | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Naïs Djouahra | M | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| H. Lee | M | 69 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Barbero | F | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Trezza | F | 36 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Flores | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Matías Rocha | D | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 36 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Puche | F | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Bruno Langa | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Stefan Leković | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Max Scholze | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 6 | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Eddy Doué | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Ianis Stoica | F | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinho | F | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | 7 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| A. Marcus | F | 97 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Meireles | F | 27 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Luan Patrick | D | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | F | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estrela?
The final score was Arouca 1–0 Estrela.
What did the model predict before Arouca vs Estrela?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Arouca win, 26% to a draw, and 25% to an Estrela win.