Tiago Esgaio
46'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 48% win probability (draw 26%, Estrela 25%). The final result was Arouca 1–0 Estrela. In 1 previous meetings, Arouca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estrela.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
11
3
Shots on target
3
0.84
Actual xG
1.25
3
Saves
2
50%
Possession
50%
4
Corners
3
10
Tackles
13
5
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
23'
Luan Patrick
/
Bernardo Schappo
E. van Ee
32'
37'
J. Sanchez
44'
⚽Tiago Esgaio
46'
E. van Ee
/ Pedro Santos
61'
P. Gozalbez
/ A. Trezza
61'
70'
J. Meireles
/
I. Stoica
70'
Jovane
/
K. Jansson
H. Lee
/ M. Flores
70'
Pedro Santos
72'
N. Djouahra
/ M. Rocha
75'
I. Barbero
/ Puche
75'
80'
P. Moreira
/
G. Doue
80'
S. van Hooijdonk
/
Rodrigo Pinho
M. Flores
90'+5
M. Rocha
90'+6
90'
J. Meireles
Pre-match prediction
48.15%
Arouca ←
26.78%
X
25.07%
Estrela
we assigned to the actual result (Arouca)
48.15%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.47
0.84
-0.63
1.00
1.25
+0.25
Estrela dominated by xG (1.25 vs 0.84).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
I. de Arruabarrena
G
I. de Arruabarrena
G
25
B. Kuipers
D
B. Kuipers
D
3
José Fontán
D
José Fontán
D
15
Javi Sánchez
D
Javi Sánchez
D
28
Tiago Esgaio
1 ⚽
D
Tiago Esgaio
1 ⚽
D
22
E. van Ee
61'
M
E. van Ee
61'
M
21
T. Fukui
M
T. Fukui
M
7
N. Djouahra
75'
M
N. Djouahra
75'
M
14
Lee Hyun-Ju
69'
M
Lee Hyun-Ju
69'
M
10
Pablo Gozálbez
61'
M
Pablo Gozálbez
61'
M
17
Barbero
75'
F
Barbero
75'
F
Bench
19
A. Trezza
36'
F
A. Trezza
36'
F
46
Mateo Flores
28'
M
Mateo Flores
28'
M
4
M. Rocha
22'
D
M. Rocha
22'
D
89
Pedro Santos
36'
M
Pedro Santos
36'
M
11
Puche
22'
F
40
G
24
Bruno Langa
D
Bruno Langa
D
14
Bernardo Schappo
23'
D
Bernardo Schappo
23'
D
4
S. Leković
D
S. Leković
D
21
M. Scholze
D
M. Scholze
D
8
Robinho
M
Robinho
M
6
K. Höög Jansson
70'
M
K. Höög Jansson
70'
M
39
Eddy Doue
80'
M
Eddy Doue
80'
M
10
I. Stoica
70'
F
I. Stoica
70'
F
9
Rodrigo Pinho
80'
F
99
A. Marcus
F
A. Marcus
F
Bench
63
Alexandre Sola
M
Alexandre Sola
M
18
Jorge Meireles
27'
F
11
Jovane Cabral
27'
F
Jovane Cabral
27'
F
30
Luan Patrick
74'
D
Luan Patrick
74'
D
83
Otávio
D
Otávio
D
20
S. van Hooijdonk
17'
F
S. van Hooijdonk
17'
F
Best on the pitch
I. de Arruabarrena
G · Arouca
8.30
· 33 pass
A. Marcus
F · Estrela
7.70
· 25 pass
Tiago Esgaio
D · Arouca
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 24 pass
Rodrigo Pinho
F · Estrela
7.30
7 shots
· 9 pass
José Fontán
D · Arouca
7.20
· 63 pass
S. Leković
D · Estrela
7.20
1 shots
· 53 pass
Arouca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. de Arruabarrena | G | 97 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 20% | — | — | — |
| B. Kuipers | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| José Fontán | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 63 | 60% | — | — | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 97 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 24 | 22% | — | — | — |
| E. van Ee | M | 61 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 46% | 3 | 1 | — |
| T. Fukui | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Djouahra | M | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 69 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Barbero | F | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Trezza | F | 36 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Flores | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Rocha | D | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 36 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Puche | F | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Bruno Langa | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| S. Leković | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Scholze | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 6 | — | — |
| Robinho | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Höög Jansson | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Eddy Doue | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 28% | — | — | — |
| I. Stoica | F | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinho | F | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | 7 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| A. Marcus | F | 97 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Meireles | F | 27 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Luan Patrick | D | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| S. van Hooijdonk | F | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estrela?
The final score was Arouca 1–0 Estrela.
What did the model predict before Arouca vs Estrela?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Arouca win, 26% to a draw, and 25% to an Estrela win.