Iván Barbero
(ast. Näis Djouahra)
5'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 38% win probability (draw 28%, Estrela 32%). The final result was Arouca 1–0 Estrela. In 2 previous meetings, Arouca have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estrela.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
11
3
Shots on target
2
0.78
Actual xG
1.48
2
Saves
2
37%
Possession
63%
5
Corners
6
20
Tackles
7
5
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Iván Barbero
· ast. Näis Djouahra
5'
45'+4
(missed pen.)
Ianis Stoica⚽
Pablo Gozálbez
45'+6
Iván Barbero
45'+8
45'+8
Abraham Marcus
50'
Max Scholze
Pablo Gozálbez
/ Pedro Santos
57'
61'
Beni Souza
/
Ianis Stoica
62'
Jefferson Encada
/
Max Scholze
Pedro Santos
62'
Iván Barbero
/ Dylan Nandín
65'
Näis Djouahra
/ Gabrijel Rukavina
65'
Taichi Fukui
/ Lee Hyun-ju
79'
Alfonso Trezza
/ Brian Mansilla
80'
Taichi Fukui
81'
82'
Emerson Vanga
/
Eddy Doué
Jose Fontán
88'
90'+1
Alisson Souza
/
Lovro Zvonarek
90'+1
Kevin Hoog Jansson
/
Santiago Serra
Pre-match prediction
38.15%
Arouca ←
28.88%
X
32.98%
Estrela
we assigned to the actual result (Arouca)
38.15%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.32
0.78
-0.54
1.42
1.48
+0.06
Estrela dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.78).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
I. de Arruabarrena
G
I. de Arruabarrena
G
18
O. Lebedenko
D
O. Lebedenko
D
3
José Fontán
D
José Fontán
D
15
Javi Sánchez
D
Javi Sánchez
D
28
Tiago Esgaio
D
Tiago Esgaio
D
8
T. Fukui
79'
M
T. Fukui
79'
M
6
E. van Ee
M
E. van Ee
M
7
N. Djouahra
1 👟
65'
M
N. Djouahra
1 👟
65'
M
10
Pablo Gozálbez
57'
M
Pablo Gozálbez
57'
M
19
A. Trezza
80'
M
A. Trezza
80'
M
17
Barbero
1 ⚽
65'
F
Barbero
1 ⚽
65'
F
Bench
24
B. Mansilla
10'
F
B. Mansilla
10'
F
5
B. Popović
D
B. Popović
D
4
Diogo Monteiro
D
Diogo Monteiro
D
23
D. Nandín
25'
F
D. Nandín
25'
F
9
F. Mayulu
F
F. Mayulu
F
20
G. Rukavina
25'
F
G. Rukavina
25'
F
1
J. Vinarčík
G
J. Vinarčík
G
14
Lee Hyun-Ju
11'
M
Lee Hyun-Ju
11'
M
2
L. Shahar
D
L. Shahar
D
37
Mario Climent
D
Mario Climent
D
21
Mateo Flores
M
Mateo Flores
M
89
Pedro Santos
33'
M
Pedro Santos
33'
M
24
Léo Linck
G
Léo Linck
G
55
Rafa Soares
D
Rafa Soares
D
5
S. Leković
D
S. Leković
D
30
Patrick Luan
D
21
M. Scholze
62'
D
M. Scholze
62'
D
39
Eddy Doue
82'
M
Eddy Doue
82'
M
78
Santiago Serra
89'
M
Santiago Serra
89'
M
10
I. Stoica
61'
M
I. Stoica
61'
M
14
L. Zvonarek
89'
M
L. Zvonarek
89'
M
99
A. Marcus
M
A. Marcus
M
37
L. Antonetti
F
L. Antonetti
F
Bench
79
A. Chernev
D
A. Chernev
D
80
Alisson
1'
F
Alisson
1'
F
4
Bernardo Schappo
D
Bernardo Schappo
D
93
B. Souza
29'
M
B. Souza
29'
M
51
Diogo Pinto
G
Diogo Pinto
G
71
E. Pedro Vanga
8'
M
E. Pedro Vanga
8'
M
72
H. Poniewas
F
H. Poniewas
F
17
Jefferson Encada
28'
D
Jefferson Encada
28'
D
6
K. Höög Jansson
1'
M
K. Höög Jansson
1'
M
3
L. Mincarelli Davin
D
L. Mincarelli Davin
D
49
R. Muteba
F
R. Muteba
F
28
T. Moustier
M
T. Moustier
M
Best on the pitch
N. Djouahra
M · Arouca
7.70
1 👟
1 shots
· 24 pass
Javi Sánchez
D · Arouca
7.48
· 45 pass
Barbero
F · Arouca
7.47
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
Patrick Luan
D · Estrela
7.20
· 94 pass
José Fontán
D · Arouca
7.19
· 56 pass
Pablo Gozálbez
M · Arouca
6.97
· 14 pass
Arouca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. de Arruabarrena | G | 90 | 6.73 | — | — | 0 | 41 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| O. Lebedenko | D | 90 | 6.42 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| José Fontán | D | 90 | 7.19 | — | — | 0 | 56 | 48% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 90 | 7.48 | — | — | 0 | 45 | 40% | 0 | — | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 90 | 6.45 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Fukui | M | 79 | 6.76 | — | — | 0 | 24 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. van Ee | M | 90 | 6.35 | — | — | 0 | 42 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Djouahra | M | 65 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 24 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 57 | 6.97 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 8% | 3 | 1 | — |
| A. Trezza | M | 80 | 6.57 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
| Barbero | F | 65 | 7.47 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 0 | 1 | — |
| B. Mansilla | F | 10 | 6.59 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Nandín | F | 25 | 6.39 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Rukavina | F | 25 | 6.89 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 11 | 6.80 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 33 | 6.74 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 12% | 3 | 1 | — |
Estrela — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Linck | G | 90 | 6.51 | — | — | 0 | 51 | 46% | 0 | — | — |
| Rafa Soares | D | 90 | 5.99 | — | — | 0 | 53 | 41% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Leković | D | 90 | 6.88 | — | — | 1 | 93 | 83% | 1 | — | — |
| Patrick Luan | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 0 | 94 | 88% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Scholze | D | 62 | 6.12 | — | — | 0 | 23 | 21% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Eddy Doue | M | 82 | 6.64 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Serra | M | 89 | 6.81 | — | — | 3 | 58 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Stoica | M | 61 | 6.17 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Zvonarek | M | 89 | 6.73 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Marcus | M | 90 | 5.87 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Antonetti | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 0 | 15 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| Alisson | F | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Souza | M | 29 | 6.22 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Pedro Vanga | M | 8 | 6.26 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 28 | 6.43 | — | — | 0 | 33 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| K. Höög Jansson | M | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estrela?
The final score was Arouca 1–0 Estrela.
What did the model predict before Arouca vs Estrela?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Arouca win, 28% to a draw, and 32% to an Estrela win.