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Arsenal Tula - Rodina Moskva

First League May 16, 2026 12:00
Arsenal Tula
#12 · 39 pts
vs
Rodina Moskva
#1 · 65 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 19.8°C 💨 7 km/h · Tula
⚡ Pre-match analysis
17.7%
Win
Arsenal Tula
25.66%
Draw
56.64%
Win
Rodina Moskva
0.85
Expected xG
1.9
Model prediction
Rodina Moskva
56.64%
Probability

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Rodina Moskva a 56% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Arsenal Tula. Expected goals are 0.9 for Arsenal Tula and 1.9 for Rodina Moskva (total 2.8), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 12.1% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Arsenal Tula have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Rodina Moskva.

Score Matrix
↕ Arsenal Tula Rodina Moskva →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4% 12.1% 11.5% 7.3% 3.5% 1.3%
1 5.4% 10.3% 9.8% 6.2% 3.0% 1.1%
2 2.3% 4.4% 4.2% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% —
5 — — — — — —
Recent form
Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula
L Enisey 1–0
D Rotor Volgograd 2–2
D Spartak Kostroma 1–1
D Chelyabinsk 0–0
L Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 22%
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva
W Chelyabinsk 2–0
W Chernomorets 1–3
W FC UFA 1–0
L Rotor Volgograd 2–0
D Volga Ulyanovsk 0–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 22%
Playing profile
Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula
Attack
24
Defence
69
Form
40
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva
Attack
46
Defence
82
Form
70
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Arsenal Tula
1
Draw
0
Rodina Moskva
D 9 Aug 2025 First League 1–1
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 33 65
2 Fakel Fakel 33 65
3 Ural Ural 33 61
4 Rotor Volgograd Rotor Volgograd 33 53
5 KAMAZ KAMAZ 33 49
6 Enisey Enisey 33 49
7 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma 33 49
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl 33 47
9 Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva 33 43
10 Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk 33 43
11 FK Neftekhimik FK Neftekhimik 33 43
12 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 33 39
13 Ska-khabarovsk Ska-khabarovsk 33 39
14 Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk 33 37
15 FC UFA FC UFA 33 34
16 Chernomorets Chernomorets 33 32
17 FK Sokol Saratov FK Sokol Saratov 33 23
18 Chayka Chayka 33 22
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
The model gives Arsenal Tula a 17% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 56% for an Rodina Moskva win.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
Expected goals: Arsenal Tula 0.9, Rodina Moskva 1.9 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal Tula vs Rodina Moskva?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.1%.