✗Model wrong — prediction Arsenal, result Bournemouth wins
V. Gyokeres
35'
(pen.)
17'
E. J. Kroupi
74'
(ast. Evanilson)
A. Scott
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 66% win probability (draw 20%, Bournemouth 12%). The final result was Arsenal 1–2 Bournemouth. In 1 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Bournemouth.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
3
2.28
Actual xG
1.19
1
Saves
2
51%
Possession
49%
9
Corners
1
17
Tackles
18
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
17'
E. J. Kroupi⚽
⚽V. Gyokeres
(pen.)
35'
K. Havertz
/ E. Eze
54'
N. Madueke
/ M. Dowman
54'
G. Martinelli
/ L. Trossard
54'
70'
T. Adams
/
R. Christie
70'
D. Brooks
/
Rayan
74'
ast. Evanilson ·
A. Scott⚽
B. White
/ C. Mosquera
76'
M. Zubimendi
/ Gabriel Jesus
76'
77'
A. Truffert
79'
E. J. Kroupi
V. Gyokeres
80'
85'
A. Toth
/
E. J. Kroupi
90'+6
J. Hill
90'
E. Unal
/
Evanilson
90'
A. Smith
/
A. Jimenez
Pre-match prediction
66.92%
Arsenal
20.13%
X
12.95%
Bournemouth ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bournemouth)
12.95%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.36
2.28
-0.08
1.06
1.19
+0.13
Arsenal dominated by xG (2.28 vs 1.19).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
David Raya
89'
G
David Raya
89'
G
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
89'
D
M. Lewis-Skelly
89'
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
89'
D
Gabriel Magalhães
89'
D
2
89'
D
4
B. White
76'
D
B. White
76'
D
41
D. Rice
89'
M
D. Rice
89'
M
36
Martín Zubimendi
76'
M
Martín Zubimendi
76'
M
11
Gabriel Martinelli
54'
M
Gabriel Martinelli
54'
M
29
K. Havertz
54'
M
K. Havertz
54'
M
20
N. Madueke
54'
M
N. Madueke
54'
M
14
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
89'
F
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
89'
F
Bench
16
C. Nørgaard
M
C. Nørgaard
M
3
Cristhian Mosquera
13'
D
Cristhian Mosquera
13'
D
10
E. Eze
35'
M
E. Eze
35'
M
9
Gabriel Jesus
13'
F
Gabriel Jesus
13'
F
19
L. Trossard
35'
F
L. Trossard
35'
F
1
Đ. Petrović
89'
G
Đ. Petrović
89'
G
3
A. Truffert
89'
D
A. Truffert
89'
D
5
89'
D
23
J. Hill
89'
D
J. Hill
89'
D
20
Álex Jiménez
89'
D
Álex Jiménez
89'
D
10
R. Christie
70'
M
R. Christie
70'
M
8
A. Scott
1 ⚽
89'
M
A. Scott
1 ⚽
89'
M
16
M. Tavernier
89'
M
M. Tavernier
89'
M
22
E. Kroupi
1 ⚽
85'
M
E. Kroupi
1 ⚽
85'
M
37
Rayan
70'
M
Rayan
70'
M
9
Evanilson
1 👟
89'
F
Evanilson
1 👟
89'
F
Bench
27
A. Tóth
4'
M
A. Tóth
4'
M
7
D. Brooks
19'
M
D. Brooks
19'
M
12
T. Adams
19'
M
T. Adams
19'
M
Best on the pitch
A. Scott
M · Bournemouth
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 43 pass
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
7.70
1 shots
· 46 pass
J. Hill
D · Bournemouth
7.50
· 38 pass
Gabriel Magalhães
D · Arsenal
7.20
· 39 pass
D. Brooks
M · Bournemouth
6.90
· 5 pass
M. Tavernier
M · Bournemouth
6.90
· 32 pass
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 34% | — | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | D | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — | |
| B. White | D | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 89 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | M | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| K. Havertz | M | 54 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Madueke | M | 54 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 89 | 6.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 35 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Jesus | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| L. Trossard | F | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
Bournemouth — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Đ. Petrović | G | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 12% | — | — | — |
| A. Truffert | D | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 27% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 67 | 53% | 3 | — | — | |
| J. Hill | D | 89 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Álex Jiménez | D | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Christie | M | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Scott | M | 89 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 43 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Tavernier | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Kroupi | M | 85 | 6.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Rayan | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Evanilson | F | 89 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| A. Tóth | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Brooks | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Adams | M | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
The final score was Arsenal 1–2 Bournemouth.
What did the model predict before Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Arsenal win, 20% to a draw, and 12% to an Bournemouth win.