✓Model correct — prediction Arsenal
K. Havertz
(ast. B. Saka)
37'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 88% win probability (draw 7%, Burnley 3%). The final result was Arsenal 1–0 Burnley. In 1 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Burnley.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
4
3
Shots on target
0
1.03
Actual xG
0.21
0
Saves
2
61%
Possession
39%
3
Corners
3
16
Tackles
20
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
28'
H. Mejbri
⚽K. Havertz
· ast. B. Saka
37'
K. Havertz
67'
70'
Z. Amdouni
/
H. Mejbri
71'
J. Laurent
/
L. Ugochukwu
R. Calafiori
/ P. Hincapie
72'
K. Havertz
/ V. Gyokeres
73'
E. Eze
/ M. Lewis-Skelly
73'
78'
J. Ward-Prowse
/
Florentino
82'
B. Humphreys
/
M. Esteve
82'
J. Bruun Larsen
/
L. Tchaouna
90'+1
Z. Flemming
L. Trossard
/ G. Martinelli
90'+3
M. Odegaard
/ M. Zubimendi
90'+3
90'+4
Lucas Pires
Pre-match prediction
88.23%
Arsenal ←
7.84%
X
3.93%
Burnley
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
88.23%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.45
1.03
-2.42
0.61
0.21
-0.4
Arsenal dominated by xG (1.03 vs 0.21).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
33
R. Calafiori
72'
D
R. Calafiori
72'
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
William Saliba
D
William Saliba
D
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
10
E. Eze
73'
M
E. Eze
73'
M
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
8
M. Ødegaard
M
M. Ødegaard
M
19
Leandro Trossard
F
Leandro Trossard
F
29
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
73'
F
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
73'
F
7
B. Saka
1 👟
F
B. Saka
1 👟
F
Bench
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
4'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
4'
F
13
Kepa
G
Kepa
G
36
Martín Zubimendi
4'
M
Martín Zubimendi
4'
M
56
M. Dowman
M
M. Dowman
M
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
24'
D
M. Lewis-Skelly
24'
D
20
N. Madueke
F
N. Madueke
F
5
P. Hincapié
25'
D
P. Hincapié
25'
D
14
V. Gyökeres
24'
F
V. Gyökeres
24'
F
13
M. Weiß
G
M. Weiß
G
23
Lucas Pires
D
Lucas Pires
D
5
M. Estève
82'
D
M. Estève
82'
D
6
A. Tuanzebe
D
A. Tuanzebe
D
2
K. Walker
D
K. Walker
D
8
L. Ugochukwu
71'
M
L. Ugochukwu
71'
M
16
Florentino
78'
M
Florentino
78'
M
11
J. Anthony
M
J. Anthony
M
28
H. Mejbri
70'
M
H. Mejbri
70'
M
17
L. Tchaouna
82'
M
L. Tchaouna
82'
M
19
Z. Flemming
F
Z. Flemming
F
Bench
12
Bashir Humphreys
15'
D
Bashir Humphreys
15'
D
7
J. Bruun Larsen
15'
F
J. Bruun Larsen
15'
F
29
J. Laurent
26'
M
J. Laurent
26'
M
20
J. Ward-Prowse
19'
M
J. Ward-Prowse
19'
M
4
J. Worrall
D
J. Worrall
D
1
M. Dúbravka
G
M. Dúbravka
G
10
M. Edwards
F
M. Edwards
F
3
Q. Hartman
D
Q. Hartman
D
25
Z. Amdouni
27'
F
Z. Amdouni
27'
F
Best on the pitch
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
8.30
· 82 pass
K. Havertz
F · Arsenal
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 30 pass
B. Saka
F · Arsenal
7.30
1 👟
2 shots
· 33 pass
L. Ugochukwu
M · Burnley
7.20
· 22 pass
M. Weiß
G · Burnley
7.20
· 50 pass
Leandro Trossard
F · Arsenal
7.20
2 shots
· 31 pass
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 72 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| William Saliba | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 64 | 59% | — | — | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 73 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 37 | 33% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 97 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 82 | 72% | 5 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 74 | 65% | — | — | — |
| Leandro Trossard | F | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 28% | — | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 73 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 30 | 25% | — | 1 | — |
| B. Saka | F | 97 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 33 | 25% | 5 | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | D | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| P. Hincapié | D | 25 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
Burnley — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Weiß | G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Estève | D | 82 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Tuanzebe | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | — | — | — |
| K. Walker | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Ugochukwu | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Florentino | M | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Anthony | M | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Mejbri | M | 70 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Tchaouna | M | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Z. Flemming | F | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
| J. Bruun Larsen | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Ward-Prowse | M | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Z. Amdouni | F | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Burnley?
The final score was Arsenal 1–0 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Arsenal vs Burnley?
The model assigned 88% probability to a Arsenal win, 7% to a draw, and 3% to an Burnley win.