Riccardo Calafiori
(ast. Ben White)
62'
Bruno Guimarães
(ast. Declan Rice)
70'
55'
(ast. Gabriel Gudmundsson)
James Justin
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 46% win probability (draw 28%, Leeds 25%). The final result was Arsenal 2–1 Leeds. In 2 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Leeds.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
11
6
Shots on target
5
2.66
Actual xG
0.74
4
Saves
4
58%
Possession
42%
3
Corners
4
12
Tackles
10
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
36'
Ao Tanaka
38'
Ethan Ampadu
39'
Daniel Farke
55'
ast. Gabriel Gudmundsson ·
James Justin⚽
59'
Tarik Muharemovic
⚽Riccardo Calafiori
· ast. Ben White
62'
Ben White
/ Jurriën Timber
63'
Kai Havertz
/ Viktor Gyökeres
63'
Myles Lewis-Skelly
/ Bruno Guimarães
63'
⚽Bruno Guimarães
· ast. Declan Rice
70'
71'
Harry Wilson
/
Ao Tanaka
71'
Brenden Aaronson
/
Noah Okafor
78'
James Justin
79'
Lukas Nmecha
/
James Justin
Riccardo Calafiori
/ Piero Hincapié
82'
Martin Odegaard
84'
86'
Jean Matteo Bahoya
/
Jayden Bogle
86'
Jaka Bijol
/
Nico Elvedi
Martin Odegaard
/ Mikel Merino
90'
Pre-match prediction
46.13%
Arsenal ←
28.57%
X
25.3%
Leeds
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
46.13%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.57
2.66
+1.09
0.86
0.74
-0.12
Arsenal dominated by xG (2.66 vs 0.74).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
33
R. Calafiori
1 ⚽
82'
D
R. Calafiori
1 ⚽
82'
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
15
E. Konsa
D
E. Konsa
D
4
B. White
1 👟
63'
D
B. White
1 👟
63'
D
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
63'
M
M. Lewis-Skelly
63'
M
41
D. Rice
1 👟
M
D. Rice
1 👟
M
20
N. Madueke
M
N. Madueke
M
8
M. Ødegaard
89'
M
M. Ødegaard
89'
M
7
B. Saka
M
B. Saka
M
29
K. Havertz
63'
F
K. Havertz
63'
F
Bench
39
Bruno Guimarães
1 ⚽
27'
M
Bruno Guimarães
1 ⚽
27'
M
10
E. Eze
M
E. Eze
M
12
J. Timber
27'
D
J. Timber
27'
D
13
Kepa
G
Kepa
G
36
Martín Zubimendi
M
Martín Zubimendi
M
56
M. Dowman
F
M. Dowman
F
23
Mikel Merino
1'
M
Mikel Merino
1'
M
5
P. Hincapié
8'
D
P. Hincapié
8'
D
14
V. Gyökeres
27'
F
V. Gyökeres
27'
F
1
J. Trafford
G
J. Trafford
G
5
T. Muharemović
D
T. Muharemović
D
30
N. Elvedi
86'
D
N. Elvedi
86'
D
24
J. Justin
1 ⚽
79'
D
J. Justin
1 ⚽
79'
D
3
G. Gudmundsson
1 👟
M
G. Gudmundsson
1 👟
M
22
A. Tanaka
71'
M
A. Tanaka
71'
M
4
E. Ampadu
M
E. Ampadu
M
2
J. Bogle
86'
M
J. Bogle
86'
M
19
N. Okafor
71'
M
N. Okafor
71'
M
18
A. Stach
M
A. Stach
M
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
F
D. Calvert-Lewin
F
Bench
11
B. Aaronson
19'
M
B. Aaronson
19'
M
10
H. Wilson
19'
F
H. Wilson
19'
F
44
I. Gruev
M
I. Gruev
M
23
J. Bahoya
4'
F
J. Bahoya
4'
F
15
J. Bijol
4'
D
J. Bijol
4'
D
14
L. Nmecha
11'
F
L. Nmecha
11'
F
26
M. Bard
D
M. Bard
D
16
M. Zetterer
G
M. Zetterer
G
8
S. Longstaff
M
S. Longstaff
M
Best on the pitch
Bruno Guimarães
M · Arsenal
8.09
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 21 pass
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
7.64
1 👟
· 71 pass
R. Calafiori
D · Arsenal
7.48
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
G. Gudmundsson
M · Leeds
7.46
1 👟
2 shots
· 17 pass
David Raya
G · Arsenal
7.33
· 30 pass
N. Madueke
M · Arsenal
7.20
3 shots
· 39 pass
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 90 | 7.33 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 82 | 7.48 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 6.33 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 47% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 6.92 | — | — | 0 | 55 | 50% | 3 | — | — |
| B. White | D | 63 | 7.02 | — | 1 | 0 | 33 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | M | 63 | 6.69 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 48% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 90 | 7.64 | — | 1 | 0 | 71 | 63% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Madueke | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 39 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 89 | 6.49 | — | — | 2 | 60 | 53% | 0 | 1 | — |
| B. Saka | M | 90 | 6.44 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 63 | 6.25 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 27 | 8.09 | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Timber | D | 27 | 6.56 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| P. Hincapié | D | 8 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 27 | 6.96 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Leeds — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Trafford | G | 90 | 5.65 | — | — | 0 | 50 | 29% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Muharemović | D | 90 | 6.52 | — | — | 0 | 50 | 46% | 0 | 1 | — |
| N. Elvedi | D | 86 | 6.71 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Justin | D | 79 | 6.92 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| G. Gudmundsson | M | 90 | 7.46 | — | 1 | 2 | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Tanaka | M | 71 | 6.08 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Ampadu | M | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 38% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Bogle | M | 86 | 5.93 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Okafor | M | 71 | 6.02 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Stach | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 90 | 6.06 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Aaronson | M | 19 | 6.04 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Wilson | F | 19 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Bahoya | F | 4 | 6.25 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Bijol | D | 4 | 6.43 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Nmecha | F | 11 | 6.26 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Leeds?
The final score was Arsenal 2–1 Leeds.
What did the model predict before Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Arsenal win, 28% to a draw, and 25% to an Leeds win.