Arsenal - Manchester City
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.34%
Win
Arsenal
29.84%
Draw
36.81%
Win
Manchester City
1.72
2.03
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(11.96%)
1X2 Result
1
33%
X
30%
2
37%
Double Chance
1X
63%
X2
67%
12
70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Manchester City a 36% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Arsenal. Expected goals are 1.7 for Arsenal and 2.0 for Manchester City (total 3.8), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.96% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Manchester City.
Season Stats
8W
3D
4L
9W
3D
3L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
1.9
0.7
Conceded
0.9
4.4
Shots OT
5.7
5.1
Corners
8.5
50%
Poss.
61%
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
87%
33%
O 2.5
67%
40%
BTTS
47%
53%
Clean Sht
47%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
10%
O 3.5
30%
BTTS
7W
1D
2L
· at home
6W
3D
1L
· away
1.3
gls/g
1.6
0.5
Conceded
0.9
70%
Win %
60%
80%
Win or Draw
90%
60%
O 1.5
70%
30%
O 2.5
40%
0%
O 3.5
20%
20%
BTTS
40%
70%
Clean Sht
50%
20%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ
Home/away records across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Score Matrix
↕ Arsenal
Manchester City →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Arsenal
Attack
42
Defence
68
Form
59
Manchester City
Attack
54
Defence
76
Form
71
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
The model gives Arsenal a 33% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 36% for an Manchester City win.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.7, Manchester City 2.0 (total 3.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.96%.