Premier League
· Regular Season - 34
April 25, 2026 20:30
✓Model correct — prediction Arsenal
E. Eze
(ast. K. Havertz)
9'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 65% win probability (draw 19%, Newcastle 14%). The final result was Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle. In 1 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Newcastle.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
3
0.64
Actual xG
0.92
3
Saves
3
46%
Possession
54%
7
Corners
1
14
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽E. Eze
· ast. K. Havertz
9'
K. Havertz
/ V. Gyokeres
34'
E. Eze
/ G. Martinelli
54'
57'
D. Burn
66'
H. Barnes
/
J. Murphy
66'
Y. Wissa
/
W. Osula
G. Martinelli
71'
75'
N. Pope
M. Zubimendi
/ M. Lewis-Skelly
81'
N. Madueke
/ B. Saka
81'
D. Rice
86'
87'
A. Elanga
/
J. Willock
Pre-match prediction
65.52%
Arsenal ←
19.81%
X
14.66%
Newcastle
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
65.52%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.42
0.64
-1.78
1.13
0.92
-0.21
xG dominance was balanced (0.64 – 0.92).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
5
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
4
Ben White
D
Ben White
D
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
36
Martín Zubimendi
81'
M
Martín Zubimendi
81'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
M
M. Ødegaard
M
10
Eberechi Eze
1 ⚽
53'
F
Eberechi Eze
1 ⚽
53'
F
29
K. Havertz
1 👟
34'
F
K. Havertz
1 👟
34'
F
20
Noni Madueke
81'
F
Noni Madueke
81'
F
Bench
7
Bukayo Saka
13'
F
Bukayo Saka
13'
F
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
41'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
41'
F
19
L. Trossard
F
L. Trossard
F
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
13'
D
Myles Lewis-Skelly
13'
D
14
V. Gyökeres
60'
F
V. Gyökeres
60'
F
1
Nick Pope
G
Nick Pope
G
33
D. Burn
D
D. Burn
D
4
Sven Botman
D
Sven Botman
D
12
Malick Thiaw
D
Malick Thiaw
D
67
D
8
Sandro Tonali
M
Sandro Tonali
M
41
Jacob Ramsey
M
Jacob Ramsey
M
39
Bruno Guimarães
75'
M
Bruno Guimarães
75'
M
28
Joe Willock
86'
M
Joe Willock
86'
M
23
Jacob Murphy
66'
M
Jacob Murphy
66'
M
18
William Osula
66'
F
William Osula
66'
F
Bench
32
Aaron Ramsdale
G
Aaron Ramsdale
G
20
Anthony Elanga
8'
F
Anthony Elanga
8'
F
11
H. Barnes
28'
M
H. Barnes
28'
M
2
K. Trippier
D
K. Trippier
D
3
Lewis Hall
D
Lewis Hall
D
27
Nick Woltemade
19'
F
Nick Woltemade
19'
F
9
Yoane Wissa
28'
F
Yoane Wissa
28'
F
Best on the pitch
D · Arsenal
7.50
· 16 pass
Bruno Guimarães
M · Newcastle
7.30
1 shots
· 54 pass
Malick Thiaw
D · Newcastle
7.30
· 71 pass
Martín Zubimendi
M · Arsenal
7.30
· 47 pass
M. Ødegaard
M · Arsenal
7.30
1 shots
· 57 pass
Eberechi Eze
F · Arsenal
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 11 pass
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 13% | — | — | — |
| D | 94 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 5 | — | — | |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 51 | 45% | 1 | — | — | |
| Ben White | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 42% | — | 1 | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 81 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 47 | 40% | 5 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| Eberechi Eze | F | 53 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 11 | 5% | — | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 34 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Noni Madueke | F | 81 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Bukayo Saka | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 41 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | D | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Newcastle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pope | G | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Burn | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 25% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Sven Botman | D | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 63 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Malick Thiaw | D | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 71 | 65% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 50% | 1 | — | — | |
| Sandro Tonali | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Jacob Ramsey | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 75 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 50% | 3 | — | — |
| Joe Willock | M | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Jacob Murphy | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| William Osula | F | 66 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Anthony Elanga | F | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| H. Barnes | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Nick Woltemade | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Yoane Wissa | F | 28 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Newcastle?
The final score was Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle.
What did the model predict before Arsenal vs Newcastle?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Arsenal win, 19% to a draw, and 14% to an Newcastle win.