✓Model correct — prediction Arsenal
E. Eze
(ast. K. Havertz)
9'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 65% win probability (draw 19%, Newcastle 14%). The final result was Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle. In 1 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Newcastle.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
3
0.64
Actual xG
0.92
3
Saves
3
46%
Possession
54%
7
Corners
1
14
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽E. Eze
· ast. K. Havertz
9'
K. Havertz
/ V. Gyokeres
34'
E. Eze
/ G. Martinelli
54'
57'
D. Burn
66'
H. Barnes
/
J. Murphy
66'
Y. Wissa
/
W. Osula
G. Martinelli
71'
75'
N. Pope
M. Zubimendi
/ M. Lewis-Skelly
81'
N. Madueke
/ B. Saka
81'
D. Rice
86'
87'
A. Elanga
/
J. Willock
Pre-match prediction
65.52%
Arsenal ←
19.81%
X
14.66%
Newcastle
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
65.52%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.42
0.64
-1.78
1.13
0.92
-0.21
xG dominance was balanced (0.64 – 0.92).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
5
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
4
B. White
D
B. White
D
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
36
Martín Zubimendi
81'
M
Martín Zubimendi
81'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
M
M. Ødegaard
M
10
E. Eze
1 ⚽
53'
F
E. Eze
1 ⚽
53'
F
29
K. Havertz
1 👟
34'
F
K. Havertz
1 👟
34'
F
20
N. Madueke
81'
F
N. Madueke
81'
F
Bench
7
B. Saka
13'
F
B. Saka
13'
F
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
41'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
41'
F
19
Leandro Trossard
F
Leandro Trossard
F
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
13'
D
M. Lewis-Skelly
13'
D
14
V. Gyökeres
60'
F
V. Gyökeres
60'
F
1
N. Pope
G
N. Pope
G
33
D. Burn
D
D. Burn
D
4
S. Botman
D
S. Botman
D
12
M. Thiaw
D
M. Thiaw
D
67
D
8
S. Tonali
M
S. Tonali
M
41
J. Ramsey
M
J. Ramsey
M
39
Bruno Guimarães
75'
M
Bruno Guimarães
75'
M
28
J. Willock
86'
M
J. Willock
86'
M
23
J. Murphy
66'
M
J. Murphy
66'
M
18
W. Osula
66'
F
W. Osula
66'
F
Bench
32
Aaron Ramsdale
G
Aaron Ramsdale
G
20
A. Elanga
8'
F
A. Elanga
8'
F
11
H. Barnes
28'
M
H. Barnes
28'
M
2
K. Trippier
D
K. Trippier
D
3
L. Hall
D
L. Hall
D
27
N. Woltemade
19'
F
N. Woltemade
19'
F
9
Y. Wissa
28'
F
Y. Wissa
28'
F
Best on the pitch
D · Arsenal
7.50
· 16 pass
Bruno Guimarães
M · Newcastle
7.30
1 shots
· 54 pass
M. Thiaw
D · Newcastle
7.30
· 71 pass
Martín Zubimendi
M · Arsenal
7.30
· 47 pass
M. Ødegaard
M · Arsenal
7.30
1 shots
· 57 pass
E. Eze
F · Arsenal
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 11 pass
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 13% | — | — | — |
| D | 94 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 5 | — | — | |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 51 | 45% | 1 | — | — | |
| B. White | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 42% | — | 1 | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 81 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 47 | 40% | 5 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Eze | F | 53 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 11 | 5% | — | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 34 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| N. Madueke | F | 81 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 23% | — | — | — |
| B. Saka | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 41 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | D | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Newcastle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Pope | G | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Burn | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 25% | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Botman | D | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 63 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Thiaw | D | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 71 | 65% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 50% | 1 | — | — | |
| S. Tonali | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ramsey | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 75 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 50% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Willock | M | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Murphy | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Osula | F | 66 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| A. Elanga | F | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| H. Barnes | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| N. Woltemade | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Y. Wissa | F | 28 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Newcastle?
The final score was Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle.
What did the model predict before Arsenal vs Newcastle?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Arsenal win, 19% to a draw, and 14% to an Newcastle win.