Arsenal - Real Madrid
Champions League
December 09, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.34%
Win
Arsenal
33.66%
Draw
35.99%
Win
Real Madrid
0.63
0.92
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(13.04%)
1X2 Result
1
30%
X
34%
2
36%
Double Chance
1X
64%
X2
70%
12
66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
54%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Real Madrid a 35% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Arsenal. Expected goals are 0.6 for Arsenal and 0.9 for Real Madrid (total 1.6), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.04% probability.
Season Stats
11W
4D
0L
10W
0D
5L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
2.3
0.5
Conceded
1.4
5.9
Shots OT
7.0
5.5
Corners
5.6
51%
Poss.
52%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
80%
40%
O 2.5
80%
40%
BTTS
67%
60%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
43%
BTTS
6W
1D
0L
· at home
4W
0D
3L
· away
2.1
gls/g
2.4
0.4
Conceded
1.9
86%
Win %
57%
100%
Win or Draw
57%
71%
O 1.5
71%
43%
O 2.5
71%
43%
O 3.5
57%
29%
BTTS
57%
71%
Clean Sht
29%
14%
Failed to Score
14%
last 7
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Arsenal
Real Madrid →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.2% | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.3% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Arsenal
Attack
51
Defence
73
Form
65
Real Madrid
Attack
62
Defence
61
Form
68
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
1 | 3 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Barcelona
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Manchester United
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Como
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sporting CP
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Manchester City
|
1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
|
1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Lens
|
1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Liverpool
|
1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Real Madrid
|
1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Arsenal
|
1 | 3 |
| 16 |
AEK Athens FC
|
1 | 3 |
| 17 |
AS Roma
|
1 | 1 |
| 18 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
1 | 1 |
| 19 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
1 | 1 |
| 20 |
Fenerbahçe
|
1 | 1 |
| 21 |
Villarreal
|
1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Lille
|
1 | 0 |
| 23 |
Slavia Praha
|
1 | 0 |
| 24 |
Club Brugge KV
|
1 | 0 |
| 25 |
Inter
|
1 | 0 |
| 26 |
Atletico Madrid
|
1 | 0 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
1 | 0 |
| 28 |
Lask Linz
|
1 | 0 |
| 29 |
Viking
|
1 | 0 |
| 30 |
Galatasaray
|
1 | 0 |
| 31 |
FC Porto
|
1 | 0 |
| 32 |
RB Leipzig
|
1 | 0 |
| 33 |
Feyenoord
|
1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Sabah FA
|
1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
1 | 0 |
| 36 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
1 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
The model gives Arsenal a 30% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 35% for an Real Madrid win.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
Expected goals: Arsenal 0.6, Real Madrid 0.9 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal vs Real Madrid?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.04%.