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Serie A · Regular Season - 33 April 18, 2026 20:45
AS Roma
#3 · 21 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Atalanta
#12 · 10 pts
Mario Hermoso (ast. Devyne Rensch) 45'
12' (ast. Marten de Roon) Nikola Krstović
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atalanta a 39% win probability (draw 24%, AS Roma 36%). The final result was AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta. In 2 previous meetings, AS Roma have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atalanta.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
0.90
Actual xG
0.68
1
Saves
8
53%
Possession
47%
7
Corners
6
8
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
12'
ast. Marten de Roon · Nikola Krstović⚽
⚽Mario Hermoso · ast. Devyne Rensch
45'
46'
Honest Ahanor / Sead Kolasinac ↕
46'
Odilon Kossounou / Giorgio Scalvini ↕
46'
Nicola Zalewski / Charles De Ketelaere ↕
54'
Lorenzo Bernasconi / Raoul Bellanova ↕
↕ Gianluca Mancini / Daniele Ghilardi
60'
↕ Neil El Aynaoui / Niccolò Pisilli
60'
↕ Stephan El Shaarawy / Lorenzo Venturino
60'
65'
Éderson
↕ Matías Soulé / Robinio Vaz
71'
Niccolò Pisilli
75'
↕ Devyne Rensch / Konstantinos Tsimikas
78'
80'
Mario Pašalić / Éderson ↕
90'+1
Berat Djimsiti
Pre-match prediction
36.08%
AS
24.05%
X ←
39.87%
Atalanta
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 24.05% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AS
1.19
0.90
-0.29
Atalanta
1.69
0.68
-1.01
xG dominance was balanced (0.90 – 0.68). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Inter Inter 9 25
2 Lazio Lazio 9 25
3 AS Roma AS Roma 9 21
4 Como Como 9 20
5 AC Milan AC Milan 9 18
6 Napoli Napoli 9 14
7 Frosinone Frosinone 8 14
8 Juventus Juventus 9 14
9 Torino Torino 9 13
10 Cagliari Cagliari 9 13
11 Bologna Bologna 9 11
12 Atalanta Atalanta 8 10
13 Genoa Genoa 9 10
14 Lecce Lecce 8 9
15 Sassuolo Sassuolo 9 8
16 Monza Monza 9 7
17 Udinese Udinese 9 5
18 Parma Parma 9 5
19 Fiorentina Fiorentina 8 4
20 Venezia Venezia 9 3
Lineups
AS Roma AS Roma 3-4-2-1
99
G 6.60
22 Hermoso Hermoso 1 ⚽ D 7.90
5
D 6.90
23 G. Mancini G. Mancini 60' D 7.00
2 D. Rensch D. Rensch 1 👟 78' M 6.90
4
M 7.00
8 N. El Aynaoui N. El Aynaoui 60' M 6.50
19 Z. Çelik Z. Çelik M 7.20
92 S. El Shaarawy S. El Shaarawy 60' F 7.30
18 M. Soulé M. Soulé 71' F 7.20
14 D. Malen D. Malen F 6.20
Bench
24 Jan Ziółkowski Jan Ziółkowski D
12 K. Tsimikas K. Tsimikas 12' D 6.90
61 N. Pisilli N. Pisilli 30' M 6.90
Atalanta Atalanta 3-4-2-1
29 M. Carnesecchi M. Carnesecchi G 8.30
23 S. Kolašinac S. Kolašinac 45' D 6.20
19 B. Djimsiti B. Djimsiti D 7.00
42 G. Scalvini G. Scalvini 45' D 6.50
77 D. Zappacosta D. Zappacosta M 6.90
13 Éderson Éderson 80' M 7.30
15 M. de Roon M. de Roon 1 👟 M 7.70
16 R. Bellanova R. Bellanova 54' M 6.50
18 Giacomo Raspadori Giacomo Raspadori F 7.00
17 C. De Ketelaere C. De Ketelaere 45' F 6.50
90 N. Krstović N. Krstović 1 ⚽ F 7.00
Bench
9 G. Scamacca G. Scamacca F
47 L. Bernasconi L. Bernasconi 36' D 6.90
10 L. Samardžić L. Samardžić M
8 Mario Pasalic Mario Pasalic 10' M 6.70
59 N. Zalewski N. Zalewski 45' M 7.00
40 R. Obrić R. Obrić D
Best on the pitch
M. Carnesecchi
M. Carnesecchi
G · Atalanta
8.30
· 46 pass
Hermoso
Hermoso
D · AS
7.90
1 ⚽
4 shots · 68 pass
M. de Roon
M. de Roon
M · Atalanta
7.70
1 👟
· 70 pass
Éderson
Éderson
M · Atalanta
7.30
1 shots · 52 pass
S. El Shaarawy
S. El Shaarawy
F · AS
7.30
1 shots · 36 pass
Z. Çelik
Z. Çelik
M · AS
7.20
1 shots · 49 pass
AS Roma AS Roma — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.60 — — — 32 19% — — —
Hermoso D 90 7.90 1 — 4 68 62% 2 — —
D 90 6.90 — — 2 60 57% — — —
G. Mancini D 60 7.00 — — — 34 30% 1 — —
D. Rensch M 78 6.90 — 1 — 44 36% — — —
M 90 7.00 — — — 59 47% — — —
N. El Aynaoui M 60 6.50 — — — 43 41% — — —
Z. Çelik M 90 7.20 — — 1 49 41% 3 — —
S. El Shaarawy F 60 7.30 — — 1 36 34% — — —
M. Soulé F 71 7.20 — — 1 42 33% 1 — —
D. Malen F 90 6.20 — — 3 15 12% — — —
K. Tsimikas D 12 6.90 — — — 7 7% — — —
N. Pisilli M 30 6.90 — — — 19 18% 1 1 —
Atalanta Atalanta — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Carnesecchi G 90 8.30 — — — 46 24% — — —
S. Kolašinac D 45 6.20 — — — 16 16% — — —
B. Djimsiti D 90 7.00 — — — 40 38% 4 1 —
G. Scalvini D 45 6.50 — — — 24 15% 2 — —
D. Zappacosta M 90 6.90 — — — 49 40% 1 — —
Éderson M 80 7.30 — — 1 52 43% 2 1 —
M. de Roon M 90 7.70 — 1 — 70 63% 3 — —
R. Bellanova M 54 6.50 — — — 25 21% — — —
Giacomo Raspadori F 90 7.00 — — — 30 22% 3 — —
C. De Ketelaere F 45 6.50 — — — 15 10% — — —
N. Krstović F 90 7.00 1 — 2 24 14% — — —
L. Bernasconi D 36 6.90 — — — 14 14% — — —
Mario Pasalic M 10 6.70 — — — 10 9% — — —
N. Zalewski M 45 7.00 — — 2 21 19% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AS Roma vs Atalanta?
The final score was AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta.
What did the model predict before AS Roma vs Atalanta?
The model assigned 36% probability to a AS Roma win, 24% to a draw, and 39% to an Atalanta win.