Serie A
· Regular Season - 33
April 18, 2026 22:45
Mario Hermoso
(ast. Devyne Rensch)
45'
12'
(ast. Marten de Roon)
Nikola Krstović
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atalanta a 39% win probability (draw 24%, AS Roma 36%). The final result was AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta. In 1 previous meetings, AS Roma have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atalanta.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
0.90
Actual xG
0.68
1
Saves
8
53%
Possession
47%
7
Corners
6
8
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
12'
ast. Marten de Roon ·
Nikola Krstović⚽
⚽Mario Hermoso
· ast. Devyne Rensch
45'
46'
Honest Ahanor
/
Sead Kolasinac
46'
Odilon Kossounou
/
Giorgio Scalvini
46'
Nicola Zalewski
/
Charles De Ketelaere
54'
Lorenzo Bernasconi
/
Raoul Bellanova
Gianluca Mancini
/ Daniele Ghilardi
60'
Neil El Aynaoui
/ Niccolò Pisilli
60'
Stephan El Shaarawy
/ Lorenzo Venturino
60'
65'
Éderson
Matías Soulé
/ Robinio Vaz
71'
Niccolò Pisilli
75'
Devyne Rensch
/ Konstantinos Tsimikas
78'
80'
Mario Pašalić
/
Éderson
90'+1
Berat Djimsiti
Pre-match prediction
36.08%
AS
24.05%
X ←
39.87%
Atalanta
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
24.05%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.19
0.90
-0.29
1.69
0.68
-1.01
xG dominance was balanced (0.90 – 0.68).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
99
G
22
Mario Hermoso
1 ⚽
D
Mario Hermoso
1 ⚽
D
5
D
23
G. Mancini
60'
D
G. Mancini
60'
D
2
Devyne Rensch
1 👟
78'
M
Devyne Rensch
1 👟
78'
M
4
M
8
N. El Aynaoui
60'
M
N. El Aynaoui
60'
M
19
Zeki Çelik
M
Zeki Çelik
M
92
S. El Shaarawy
60'
F
18
M. Soulé
71'
F
M. Soulé
71'
F
14
D. Malen
F
D. Malen
F
Bench
24
Jan Ziółkowski
D
Jan Ziółkowski
D
12
Kostas Tsimikas
12'
D
Kostas Tsimikas
12'
D
61
Niccolò Pisilli
30'
M
Niccolò Pisilli
30'
M
29
Marco Carnesecchi
G
Marco Carnesecchi
G
23
Sead Kolašinac
45'
D
Sead Kolašinac
45'
D
19
B. Djimsiti
D
42
Giorgio Scalvini
45'
D
Giorgio Scalvini
45'
D
77
Davide Zappacosta
M
Davide Zappacosta
M
13
Éderson
80'
M
Éderson
80'
M
15
Marten de Roon
1 👟
M
Marten de Roon
1 👟
M
16
Raoul Bellanova
54'
M
Raoul Bellanova
54'
M
18
Giacomo Raspadori
F
Giacomo Raspadori
F
17
C. De Ketelaere
45'
F
C. De Ketelaere
45'
F
90
N. Krstović
1 ⚽
F
N. Krstović
1 ⚽
F
Bench
9
G. Scamacca
F
G. Scamacca
F
10
Lazar Samardžić
M
Lazar Samardžić
M
47
L. Bernasconi
36'
D
8
M. Pašalić
10'
M
M. Pašalić
10'
M
59
Nicola Zalewski
45'
M
Nicola Zalewski
45'
M
40
Relja Obrić
D
Relja Obrić
D
Best on the pitch
Marco Carnesecchi
G · Atalanta
8.30
· 46 pass
Mario Hermoso
D · AS
7.90
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 68 pass
Marten de Roon
M · Atalanta
7.70
1 👟
· 70 pass
Éderson
M · Atalanta
7.30
1 shots
· 52 pass
S. El Shaarawy
F · AS
7.30
1 shots
· 36 pass
Zeki Çelik
M · AS
7.20
1 shots
· 49 pass
AS Roma — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Mario Hermoso | D | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 68 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 60 | 57% | — | — | — | |
| G. Mancini | D | 60 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Devyne Rensch | M | 78 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 44 | 36% | — | — | — |
| M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 59 | 47% | — | — | — | |
| N. El Aynaoui | M | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 43 | 41% | — | — | — |
| Zeki Çelik | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 41% | 3 | — | — |
| S. El Shaarawy | F | 60 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 34% | — | — | — |
| M. Soulé | F | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Malen | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Kostas Tsimikas | D | 12 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Niccolò Pisilli | M | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
Atalanta — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 46 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
| B. Djimsiti | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 38% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Giorgio Scalvini | D | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Davide Zappacosta | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 49 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Éderson | M | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 43% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Marten de Roon | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | 1 | — | 70 | 63% | 3 | — | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | M | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| N. Krstović | F | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 24 | 14% | — | — | — |
| L. Bernasconi | D | 36 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | — | — | — |
| M. Pašalić | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Nicola Zalewski | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AS Roma vs Atalanta?
The final score was AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta.
What did the model predict before AS Roma vs Atalanta?
The model assigned 36% probability to a AS Roma win, 24% to a draw, and 39% to an Atalanta win.