Europa League · Round of 16 March 19, 2026 21:00

AS Roma

#8 · 16 pts

3 – 4

Final score

Bologna

#10 · 15 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bologna a 36% win probability (draw 27%, AS Roma 35%). The final result was AS Roma 3–4 Bologna. In 3 previous meetings, AS Roma have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bologna.

Match statistics

7

Shots on target

9

2.03

Actual xG

1.69

61%

Possession

39%

8

Corners

4

Pre-match prediction

35.98%

AS

27.99%

X

36.03%

Bologna ←

we assigned to the actual result (Bologna) 36.03% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

AS

0.91

2.03

+1.12

Bologna

1.51

1.69

+0.18

AS Roma dominated by xG (2.03 vs 1.69). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lyon	8	21
2	Aston Villa	8	21
3	FC Midtjylland	8	19
4	Real Betis	8	17
5	FC Porto	8	17
6	SC Braga	8	17
7	SC Freiburg	8	17
8	AS Roma	8	16
9	Genk	8	16
10	Bologna	8	15
11	VfB Stuttgart	8	15
12	Ferencvarosi TC	8	15
13	Nottingham Forest	8	14
14	Plzen	8	14
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	8	14
16	Celta Vigo	8	13
17	PAOK	8	12
18	Lille	8	12
19	Fenerbahçe	8	12
20	Panathinaikos	8	12
21	Celtic	8	11
22	Ludogorets	8	10
23	Dinamo Zagreb	8	10
24	Brann	8	9
25	BSC Young Boys	8	9
26	Sturm Graz	8	7
27	FCSB	8	7
28	GO Ahead Eagles	8	7
29	Feyenoord	8	6
30	FC Basel 1893	8	6
31	Red Bull Salzburg	8	6
32	Rangers	8	4
33	Nice	8	3
34	Utrecht	8	1
35	Malmo FF	8	1
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv	8	1