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Champions League · League Stage - 2 October 14, 2026 21:00 Stadio Olimpico, Rome
AS Roma
#15 · 4 pts
3 – 4
Final score
Real Madrid
#4 · 9 pts
Marten de Roon (ast. Matias Soule) 20'
Donyell Malen (ast. Rodrigo Mora) 51'
Donyell Malen (ast. Matias Soule) 57'
25' (ast. Yan Diomande) Kylian Mbappé
83' Carlos Espí
85' (ast. Arda Güler) Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
90' (ast. Arda Güler) Antonio Rüdiger
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AS Roma a 35% win probability (draw 30%, Real Madrid 34%). The final result was AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
16
7
Shots on target
8
1.51
Actual xG
1.89
4
Saves
4
54%
Possession
46%
5
Corners
9
12
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
↕ Manu Koné / Niccolò Pisilli
17'
⚽Marten de Roon · ast. Matias Soule
20'
25'
ast. Yan Diomande · Kylian Mbappé⚽
↕ Paulo Dybala / Rodrigo Mora
45'
⚽Donyell Malen · ast. Rodrigo Mora
51'
⚽Donyell Malen · ast. Matias Soule
57'
58'
59'
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa / Vinícius ↕
59'
Arda Güler / Denzel Dumfries ↕
Gianluca Mancini
60'
↕ Gianluca Mancini / Leonardo Balerdi
63'
↕ Matias Soule / Lorenzo Pellegrini
63'
Wesley Vinícius França Lima
69'
70'
Bernardo Silva / Aurelien Tchouameni ↕
78'
Álvaro Fernández Carreras / Marc Cucurella ↕
78'
Carlos Espí / Yan Diomande ↕
↕ Mario Hermoso / Konstantinos Koulierakis
81'
83'
Carlos Espí⚽
83'
85'
ast. Arda Güler · Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa⚽
Lorenzo Pellegrini
89'
90'+5
Álvaro Fernández Carreras
90'
ast. Arda Güler · Antonio Rüdiger⚽
Pre-match prediction
35.07%
AS
30.7%
X
34.23%
Real ←
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 34.23% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AS
0.94
1.51
+0.57
Real
0.82
1.89
+1.07
Real Madrid dominated by xG (1.89 vs 1.51). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 3 9
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3 9
3 Liverpool Liverpool 3 9
4 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3 9
5 Real Betis Real Betis 3 9
6 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 7
7 Arsenal Arsenal 3 7
8 Barcelona Barcelona 3 6
9 Como Como 3 6
10 Manchester City Manchester City 3 6
11 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV 3 6
12 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3 6
13 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 6
14 Bayern München Bayern München 3 5
15 AS Roma AS Roma 3 4
16 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3 4
17 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3 4
18 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3 4
19 Villarreal Villarreal 3 3
20 Inter Inter 3 3
21 Manchester United Manchester United 3 3
22 Napoli Napoli 3 3
23 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3 3
24 Lask Linz Lask Linz 3 3
25 Sabah FA Sabah FA 3 3
26 Feyenoord Feyenoord 3 3
27 Lens Lens 3 3
28 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt 3 3
29 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 3 3
30 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3 3
31 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3 2
32 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha 3 1
33 Viking Viking 3 1
34 FC Porto FC Porto 3 0
35 Lille Lille 3 0
36 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 3 0
Lineups
AS Roma AS Roma 3-4-2-1
95 P. Gollini P. Gollini G 6.57
22 Hermoso Hermoso 81' D 6.65
5 E. Ndicka E. Ndicka D 6.22
23 G. Mancini G. Mancini 63' D 5.22
20 N. Molina N. Molina M 6.30
17 M. Koné M. Koné 17' M 5.97
15 M. de Roon M. de Roon 1 ⚽ M 7.11
43 Wesley Wesley M 6.25
21 P. Dybala P. Dybala 45' M 5.95
18 M. Soulé M. Soulé 2 👟 63' M 8.46
14 D. Malen D. Malen 2 ⚽ F 8.85
Bench
87 D. Ghilardi D. Ghilardi D 0.00
2 D. Rensch D. Rensch D 0.00
32 D. Vásquez D. Vásquez G 0.00
77 E. Lulli E. Lulli D 0.00
70 G. De Marzi G. De Marzi G 0.00
3 K. Koulierakis K. Koulierakis 9' D 5.65
26 L. Balerdi L. Balerdi 27' D 5.56
7 L. Pellegrini L. Pellegrini 27' M 5.66
61 N. Pisilli N. Pisilli 73' M 6.39
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 1 👟 45' M 6.29
9 S. Castro S. Castro F 0.00
Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois T. Courtois G 6.48
17 Marc Cucurella Marc Cucurella 78' D 6.42
22 A. Rüdiger A. Rüdiger 1 ⚽ D 7.20
16 I. Konaté I. Konaté D 6.33
24 D. Dumfries D. Dumfries 59' D 6.04
14 A. Tchouaméni A. Tchouaméni 70' M 6.00
8 F. Valverde F. Valverde M 6.21
7 Vinícius Júnior Vinícius Júnior 59' M 5.83
5 J. Bellingham J. Bellingham M 6.38
25 Y. Diomande Y. Diomande 1 👟 78' M 7.12
10 Kylian Mbappé Kylian Mbappé 1 ⚽ F 8.00
Bench
15 A. Güler A. Güler 2 👟 31' M 7.00
13 A. Lunin A. Lunin G 0.00
18 Álvaro Fernández Álvaro Fernández 12' D 5.60
20 Bernardo Silva Bernardo Silva 20' M 5.92
21 Brahim Díaz Brahim Díaz M 0.00
19 Carlos Espí Carlos Espí 1 ⚽ 12' F 7.48
4 D. Huijsen D. Huijsen D 0.00
6 E. Camavinga E. Camavinga M 0.00
9 Endrick Endrick 1 ⚽ 31' F 8.20
26 Sergio Mestre Sergio Mestre G 0.00
12 T. Alexander-Arnold T. Alexander-Arnold D 0.00
27 Thiago Pitarch Thiago Pitarch M 0.00
Best on the pitch
D. Malen
D. Malen
F · AS
8.85
2 ⚽
4 shots · 20 pass
M. Soulé
M. Soulé
M · AS
8.46
2 👟
3 shots · 41 pass
Endrick
Endrick
F · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 6 pass
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.00
1 ⚽
4 shots · 27 pass
Carlos Espí
Carlos Espí
F · Real
7.48
1 ⚽
2 shots · 5 pass
A. Rüdiger
A. Rüdiger
D · Real
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 51 pass
AS Roma AS Roma — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
P. Gollini G 90 6.57 — — 0 29 23% 0 — —
Hermoso D 81 6.65 — — 1 52 47% 1 — —
E. Ndicka D 90 6.22 — — 0 42 41% 0 — —
G. Mancini D 63 5.22 — — 0 32 24% 1 1 —
N. Molina M 90 6.30 — — 0 58 48% 2 — —
M. Koné M 17 5.97 — — 0 17 17% 0 — —
M. de Roon M 90 7.11 1 — 1 55 45% 2 — —
Wesley M 90 6.25 — — 0 61 54% 5 1 —
P. Dybala M 45 5.95 — — 1 28 24% 0 — —
M. Soulé M 63 8.46 — 2 3 41 37% 0 — —
D. Malen F 90 8.85 2 — 4 20 17% 0 — —
K. Koulierakis D 9 5.65 — — 0 7 6% 0 — —
L. Balerdi D 27 5.56 — — 0 12 8% 0 — —
L. Pellegrini M 27 5.66 — — 1 19 15% 0 1 —
N. Pisilli M 73 6.39 — — 1 51 47% 1 — —
Rodrigo Mora M 45 6.29 — 1 2 22 18% 0 — —
Real Madrid Real Madrid — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Courtois G 90 6.48 — — 0 55 41% 0 — —
Marc Cucurella D 78 6.42 — — 1 36 32% 4 — —
A. Rüdiger D 90 7.20 1 — 1 51 47% 0 — —
I. Konaté D 90 6.33 — — 0 56 51% 1 — —
D. Dumfries D 59 6.04 — — 0 19 17% 1 — —
A. Tchouaméni M 70 6.00 — — 0 39 32% 1 — —
F. Valverde M 90 6.21 — — 1 31 29% 1 — —
Vinícius Júnior M 59 5.83 — — 0 15 12% 0 — —
J. Bellingham M 90 6.38 — — 3 44 38% 1 — —
Y. Diomande M 78 7.12 — 1 2 30 25% 2 — —
Kylian Mbappé F 90 8.00 1 — 4 27 19% 0 — —
A. Güler M 31 7.00 — 2 0 27 21% 0 — —
Álvaro Fernández D 12 5.60 — — 0 4 4% 1 1 —
Bernardo Silva M 20 5.92 — — 0 13 12% 2 — —
Carlos Espí F 12 7.48 1 — 2 5 3% 1 — —
Endrick F 31 8.20 1 — 2 6 2% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
The final score was AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid.
What did the model predict before AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
The model assigned 35% probability to a AS Roma win, 30% to a draw, and 34% to an Real Madrid win.