59'
(ast. R. Calafiori)
B. Saka
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 36% win probability (draw 31%, Aston Villa 32%). The final result was Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal. In 2 previous meetings, Aston Villa have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Arsenal.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
6
0
Shots on target
2
0.31
Actual xG
1.05
1
Saves
0
39%
Possession
61%
2
Corners
4
20
Tackles
13
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
29'
C. Tzolis
46'
E. Eze
/
C. Tzolis
59'
ast. R. Calafiori ·
B. Saka⚽
71'
M. Merino
/
M. Odegaard
71'
Bruno Guimaraes
/
M. Lewis-Skelly
N. Jackson
/ T. Abraham
71'
G. Hemmings
/ Alysson
71'
M. Cash
/ A. Wan-Bissaka
78'
R. Barkley
/ A. Garnacho
78'
79'
E. Konsa
/
C. Mosquera
Alysson
80'
J. McGinn
81'
85'
M. Zubimendi
/
D. Rice
I. Maatsen
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
32.09%
Aston
31.74%
X
36.17%
Arsenal ←
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
36.17%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.47
0.31
-1.16
1.44
1.05
-0.39
Arsenal dominated by xG (1.05 vs 0.31).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
22
I. Maatsen
D
I. Maatsen
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
2
M. Cash
78'
D
M. Cash
78'
D
6
R. Barkley
78'
M
R. Barkley
78'
M
8
B. Kamara
M
B. Kamara
M
53
George Hemmings
71'
M
George Hemmings
71'
M
10
E. Buendía
M
E. Buendía
M
7
J. McGinn
M
J. McGinn
M
11
N. Jackson
71'
F
N. Jackson
71'
F
Bench
17
A. Garnacho
21'
F
A. Garnacho
21'
F
47
Alysson Edward
28'
F
Alysson Edward
28'
F
29
A. Wan-Bissaka
21'
D
A. Wan-Bissaka
21'
D
26
L. Bogarde
M
L. Bogarde
M
74
L. Lynch
F
L. Lynch
F
40
M. Bizot
G
M. Bizot
G
13
M. Ruggeri
D
M. Ruggeri
D
18
T. Abraham
28'
F
T. Abraham
28'
F
5
T. Mings
D
T. Mings
D
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
33
R. Calafiori
1 👟
D
R. Calafiori
1 👟
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
3
Cristhian Mosquera
79'
D
Cristhian Mosquera
79'
D
4
B. White
D
B. White
D
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
71'
M
M. Lewis-Skelly
71'
M
41
D. Rice
85'
M
D. Rice
85'
M
17
C. Tzolis
45'
M
C. Tzolis
45'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
71'
M
M. Ødegaard
71'
M
7
B. Saka
1 ⚽
M
B. Saka
1 ⚽
M
29
K. Havertz
F
K. Havertz
F
Bench
39
Bruno Guimarães
28'
M
Bruno Guimarães
28'
M
10
E. Eze
54'
M
E. Eze
54'
M
15
E. Konsa
20'
D
E. Konsa
20'
D
13
Kepa
G
Kepa
G
36
Martín Zubimendi
14'
M
Martín Zubimendi
14'
M
23
Mikel Merino
28'
M
Mikel Merino
28'
M
20
N. Madueke
F
N. Madueke
F
5
P. Hincapié
D
P. Hincapié
D
14
V. Gyökeres
F
V. Gyökeres
F
Best on the pitch
R. Calafiori
D · Arsenal
7.90
1 👟
1 shots
· 21 pass
B. Saka
M · Arsenal
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 46 pass
R. Barkley
M · Aston
7.30
· 37 pass
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
7.30
· 77 pass
M. Lewis-Skelly
M · Arsenal
7.30
· 49 pass
Mikel Merino
M · Arsenal
7.00
· 14 pass
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 18% | — | — | — |
| I. Maatsen | D | 99 | 5.60 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 14% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 48 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 78 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| R. Barkley | M | 78 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Kamara | M | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| George Hemmings | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 99 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 71 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| A. Garnacho | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Alysson Edward | F | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Wan-Bissaka | D | 21 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Abraham | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 24% | — | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 99 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 73 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 55 | 52% | — | — | — |
| B. White | D | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | M | 71 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 46% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 85 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 77 | 71% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Tzolis | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Saka | M | 99 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 46 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 99 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 28 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The final score was Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Aston Villa win, 31% to a draw, and 36% to an Arsenal win.