Nicolas Jackson
(ast. John McGinn)
6'
Nicolas Jackson
(ast. Ibrahim Mbaye)
60'
52'
(ast. Iliman Ndiaye)
Erling Haaland
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 45% win probability (draw 26%, Aston Villa 27%). The final result was Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City. In 2 previous meetings, Aston Villa have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Manchester City.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
15
2
Shots on target
7
0.64
Actual xG
1.81
6
Saves
0
37%
Possession
63%
4
Corners
7
31
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽Nicolas Jackson
· ast. John McGinn
6'
32'
Marc Guehi
38'
Rayan Cherki
45'
Rico Lewis
/
Marc Guehi
45'
Phil Foden
/
Rayan Cherki
52'
ast. Iliman Ndiaye ·
Erling Haaland⚽
Johan Manzambi
54'
Matty Cash
55'
Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
/ Ibrahim Mbaye
59'
⚽Nicolas Jackson
· ast. Ibrahim Mbaye
60'
Johan Manzambi
/ Emiliano Buendía
66'
John McGinn
/ Ross Barkley
66'
69'
Ryan McAidoo
/
Iliman Ndiaye
74'
Elliot Anderson
76'
Ryan McAidoo
Nicolas Jackson
/ Brian Madjo
82'
João Gomes
/ Leon Goretzka
82'
Brian Madjo
83'
Emiliano Buendía
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
27.29%
Aston ←
26.84%
X
45.87%
Manchester
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
27.29%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.08
0.64
-0.44
1.93
1.81
-0.12
Manchester City dominated by xG (1.81 vs 0.64).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
22
I. Maatsen
D
I. Maatsen
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
35
João Gomes
82'
M
João Gomes
82'
M
8
B. Kamara
M
B. Kamara
M
44
J. Manzambi
66'
M
J. Manzambi
66'
M
7
J. McGinn
1 👟
66'
M
J. McGinn
1 👟
66'
M
47
Alysson Edward
59'
M
Alysson Edward
59'
M
11
N. Jackson
2 ⚽
82'
F
N. Jackson
2 ⚽
82'
F
Bench
39
Brian Madjo
8'
F
Brian Madjo
8'
F
10
E. Buendía
24'
M
E. Buendía
24'
M
53
George Hemmings
M
George Hemmings
M
19
I. Mbaye
1 👟
31'
F
I. Mbaye
1 👟
31'
F
26
L. Bogarde
M
L. Bogarde
M
27
L. Goretzka
8'
M
L. Goretzka
8'
M
40
M. Bizot
G
M. Bizot
G
6
R. Barkley
24'
M
R. Barkley
24'
M
5
T. Mings
D
T. Mings
D
1
G. Donnarumma
G
G. Donnarumma
G
24
J. Gvardiol
D
J. Gvardiol
D
3
Rúben Dias
D
Rúben Dias
D
6
M. Guéhi
45'
D
M. Guéhi
45'
D
45
A. Khusanov
D
A. Khusanov
D
17
E. Fernández
M
E. Fernández
M
5
E. Anderson
M
E. Anderson
M
11
J. Doku
M
J. Doku
M
10
R. Cherki
45'
M
R. Cherki
45'
M
7
I. Ndiaye
1 👟
69'
M
I. Ndiaye
1 👟
69'
M
9
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Bench
32
A. Bouaddi
M
A. Bouaddi
M
28
G. Rulli
G
G. Rulli
G
8
M. Kovačić
M
M. Kovačić
M
33
N. O'Reilly
D
N. O'Reilly
D
47
P. Foden
45'
M
P. Foden
45'
M
21
R. Aït-Nouri
D
R. Aït-Nouri
D
82
R. Lewis
45'
D
R. Lewis
45'
D
56
R. McAidoo
21'
F
R. McAidoo
21'
F
22
Vitor Nunes
D
Vitor Nunes
D
Best on the pitch
N. Jackson
F · Aston
8.93
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 15 pass
E. Haaland
F · Manchester
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 7 pass
Z. Suzuki
G · Aston
7.72
· 46 pass
J. McGinn
M · Aston
7.50
1 👟
· 12 pass
J. Doku
M · Manchester
7.15
3 shots
· 36 pass
A. Khusanov
D · Manchester
7.10
1 shots
· 66 pass
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 7.72 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Maatsen | D | 90 | 6.43 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 6.19 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 49% | 0 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 6.77 | — | — | 0 | 41 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 6.65 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 19% | 8 | 1 | — |
| João Gomes | M | 82 | 6.63 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Kamara | M | 90 | 6.58 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 27% | 6 | — | — |
| J. Manzambi | M | 66 | 6.26 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 66 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 0 | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Alysson Edward | M | 59 | 6.47 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 5% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 82 | 8.93 | 2 | — | 3 | 15 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Brian Madjo | F | 8 | 6.28 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 3% | 0 | 1 | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 24 | 5.96 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 5% | 3 | 1 | — |
| I. Mbaye | F | 31 | 6.54 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Goretzka | M | 8 | 6.24 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Barkley | M | 24 | 5.85 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
Manchester City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Donnarumma | G | 90 | 5.71 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 90 | 6.46 | — | — | 3 | 43 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| Rúben Dias | D | 90 | 6.65 | — | — | 0 | 83 | 78% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 45 | 6.06 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 29% | 0 | 1 | — |
| A. Khusanov | D | 90 | 7.10 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 59% | 8 | — | — |
| E. Fernández | M | 90 | 6.80 | — | — | 1 | 78 | 75% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Anderson | M | 90 | 6.79 | — | — | 0 | 75 | 71% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Doku | M | 90 | 7.15 | — | — | 3 | 36 | 27% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Cherki | M | 45 | 5.87 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | 0 | 1 | — |
| I. Ndiaye | M | 69 | 6.64 | — | 1 | 2 | 29 | 23% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Haaland | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 7 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| P. Foden | M | 45 | 6.68 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Lewis | D | 45 | 6.17 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| R. McAidoo | F | 21 | 6.58 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 6% | 0 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
The final score was Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City.
What did the model predict before Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
The model assigned 27% probability to a Aston Villa win, 26% to a draw, and 45% to an Manchester City win.