Atalanta 4–4 Frosinone — pre-match prediction — Serie A — October 25, 2026

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Serie A · Regular Season - 8 October 25, 2026 15:00 New Balance Arena, Bergamo

Atalanta

#11 · 10 pts

4 – 4

Final score

Frosinone

#6 · 14 pts

Nikola Krstović (ast. Charles De Ketelaere) 14'

Éderson José dos Santos 33' (pen.)

Nikola Krstović (ast. Davide Zappacosta) 45'

Elif Elmas (ast. Nikola Krstović) 50'

1' Romano Schmid

17' (ast. Farès Ghedjemis) Romano Schmid

48' (ast. Farès Ghedjemis) Giacomo Calò

82' (ast. Farès Ghedjemis) Aleksa Terzić

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Frosinone a 37% win probability (draw 27%, Atalanta 34%). The final result was Atalanta 4–4 Frosinone.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

3.89

Actual xG

1.81

Saves

46%

Possession

54%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Romano Schmid⚽

Gabriele Bracaglia

⚽Nikola Krstović · ast. Charles De Ketelaere

14'

17'

ast. Farès Ghedjemis · Romano Schmid⚽

28'

Giorgi Kvernadze

29'

↕ Raoul Bellanova / Lorenzo Bernasconi

29'

⚽Éderson José dos Santos (pen.)

33'

⚽Nikola Krstović · ast. Davide Zappacosta

45'

Aleksa Terzić / Gabriele Bracaglia ↕

48'

ast. Farès Ghedjemis · Giacomo Calò⚽

⚽Elif Elmas · ast. Nikola Krstović

50'

↕ Gianluca Gaetano / Mario Pašalić

62'

↕ Jonathan Rowe / Nicola Zalewski

62'

65'

Alessio Zerbin / Giorgi Kvernadze ↕

65'

Matteo Cichella / Patrizio Masini ↕

Éderson José dos Santos

69'

75'

Ilario Monterisi / Giorgio Cittadini ↕

↕ Charles De Ketelaere / Lazar Samardzic

77'

↕ Nikola Krstović / Gianluca Scamacca

77'

82'

ast. Farès Ghedjemis · Aleksa Terzić⚽

85'

Aleksa Terzić

89'

Enzo Tchato / Anthony Oyono ↕

90'+2

Antonio Raimondo

Pre-match prediction

34.78%

Atalanta

27.63%

X ←

37.59%

Frosinone

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 27.63% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Atalanta

1.04

3.89

+2.86

Frosinone

1.59

1.81

+0.22

Atalanta dominated by xG (3.89 vs 1.81). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lazio	9	25
2	Inter	8	22
3	AS Roma	9	21
4	Como	9	20
5	AC Milan	8	18
6	Frosinone	8	14
7	Juventus	8	14
8	Torino	9	13
9	Cagliari	9	13
10	Napoli	8	11
11	Atalanta	8	10
12	Lecce	8	9
13	Bologna	8	8
14	Sassuolo	9	8
15	Monza	8	7
16	Genoa	8	7
17	Udinese	8	4
18	Fiorentina	8	4
19	Parma	8	4
20	Venezia	8	3

Lineups

Atalanta 4-2-3-1

M. Carnesecchi G 6.84

D. Zappacosta 1 👟 D 6.46

R. ObriÄ D 6.06

T. Kristensen D 6.01

R. Bellanova 29' D 5.96

G. Gaetano 62' M 6.49

Éderson 1 ⚽ M 6.12

J. Rowe 62' M 6.20

C. De Ketelaere 1 👟 77' M 7.03

E. Elmas 1 ⚽ M 8.20

N. Krstović 2 ⚽ 1 👟 77' F 9.45

Bench

G. Scamacca 13' F 6.56

J. Idele M 0.00

L. Bernasconi 61' D 6.32

L. Samardžić 13' M 5.72

Mario Pasalic 28' M 5.92

M. Plaia D 0.00

M. Sonzogni G 0.00

M. Sportiello G 0.00

N. Zalewski 28' M 6.36

Frosinone 4-2-3-1

L. Palmisani G 6.26

G. Bracaglia 45' D 5.30

G. Calvani D 6.24

G. Cittadini 75' D 5.63

A. Oyono 89' D 6.02

P. Masini 65' M 6.20

G. Calò 1 ⚽ M 7.20

G. Kvernadze 65' M 6.03

R. Schmid 2 ⚽ M 8.71

F. Ghedjemis 3 👟 M 9.09

A. Raimondo F 6.26

Bench

A. El Azzouzi M 0.00

A. Terzić 1 ⚽ 45' D 6.92

A. Zerbin 25' F 6.57

D. Bîrligea F 0.00

E. Tchato 1' D 5.78

I. Monterisi 15' D 5.70

K. Akpoguma D 0.00

L. Hasa M 0.00

Matteo Cichella 25' M 5.92

M. Pisseri G 0.00

Omar Fayed D 0.00

S. Desplanches G 0.00

S. Fini F 0.00

T. Bobček F 0.00

W. Amey D 0.00

Best on the pitch

N. Krstović

F · Atalanta

9.45

2 ⚽ 1 👟

5 shots · 22 pass

F. Ghedjemis

M · Frosinone

9.09

3 👟

6 shots · 31 pass

R. Schmid

M · Frosinone

8.71

2 ⚽

5 shots · 47 pass

E. Elmas

M · Atalanta

8.20

1 ⚽

3 shots · 17 pass

G. Calò

M · Frosinone

7.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 68 pass

C. De Ketelaere

M · Atalanta

7.03

1 👟

6 shots · 34 pass

Atalanta — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Carnesecchi	G	90	6.84	—	—	1	38	19%	0	—	—
D. Zappacosta	D	90	6.46	—	1	0	28	20%	8	—	—
R. ObriÄ	D	90	6.06	—	—	0	36	29%	0	—	—
T. Kristensen	D	90	6.01	—	—	0	29	26%	0	—	—
R. Bellanova	D	29	5.96	—	—	0	10	9%	0	—	—
G. Gaetano	M	62	6.49	—	—	0	28	21%	1	—	—
Éderson	M	90	6.12	1	—	4	22	17%	1	1	—
J. Rowe	M	62	6.20	—	—	2	9	8%	2	—	—
C. De Ketelaere	M	77	7.03	—	1	6	34	21%	2	—	—
E. Elmas	M	90	8.20	1	—	3	17	9%	2	—	—
N. Krstović	F	77	9.45	2	1	5	22	14%	2	—	—
G. Scamacca	F	13	6.56	—	—	0	6	1%	0	—	—
L. Bernasconi	D	61	6.32	—	—	0	15	14%	2	—	—
L. Samardžić	M	13	5.72	—	—	0	3	3%	1	—	—
Mario Pasalic	M	28	5.92	—	—	0	11	9%	1	—	—
N. Zalewski	M	28	6.36	—	—	1	14	9%	0	—	—

Frosinone — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
L. Palmisani	G	90	6.26	—	—	0	20	11%	0	—	—
G. Bracaglia	D	45	5.30	—	—	0	14	13%	1	1	—
G. Calvani	D	90	6.24	—	—	0	23	19%	2	—	—
G. Cittadini	D	75	5.63	—	—	1	25	14%	1	—	—
A. Oyono	D	89	6.02	—	—	0	34	27%	5	—	—
P. Masini	M	65	6.20	—	—	1	20	14%	1	—	—
G. Calò	M	90	7.20	1	—	2	68	54%	1	—	—
G. Kvernadze	M	65	6.03	—	—	2	18	9%	1	1	—
R. Schmid	M	90	8.71	2	—	5	47	38%	1	—	—
F. Ghedjemis	M	90	9.09	—	3	6	31	28%	1	—	—
A. Raimondo	F	90	6.26	—	—	2	16	10%	0	1	—
A. Terzić	D	45	6.92	1	—	4	22	17%	1	1	—
A. Zerbin	F	25	6.57	—	—	0	10	5%	2	—	—
E. Tchato	D	1	5.78	—	—	1	2	1%	0	—	—
I. Monterisi	D	15	5.70	—	—	0	9	8%	0	—	—
Matteo Cichella	M	25	5.92	—	—	0	11	10%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Frosinone?

The final score was Atalanta 4–4 Frosinone.

What did the model predict before Atalanta vs Frosinone?

The model assigned 34% probability to a Atalanta win, 27% to a draw, and 37% to an Frosinone win.