✗Model wrong — prediction Atalanta, result Draw
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atalanta a 53% win probability (draw 25%, Genoa 20%). The final result was Atalanta 0–0 Genoa. In 2 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Genoa.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
2
1.35
Actual xG
0.54
2
Saves
7
60%
Possession
40%
6
Corners
2
17
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
19'
Amorim
56'
C. Ekuban
/
L. Colombo
G. Scamacca
/ G. Raspadori
57'
B. Djimsiti
/ I. Hien
57'
Ederson
64'
69'
Junior Messias
/
Amorim
70'
R. Malinovskyi
/
J. Ekhator
C. De Ketelaere
/ L. Samardzic
76'
M. De Roon
/ M. Pasalic
76'
N. Krstovic
78'
D. Zappacosta
/ Y. Musah
85'
86'
P. Masini
/
Vitinha
86'
A. Martin
/
S. Sabelli
Pre-match prediction
53.87%
Atalanta
25.68%
X ←
20.45%
Genoa
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.68%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.38
1.35
-0.03
0.81
0.54
-0.27
Atalanta dominated by xG (1.35 vs 0.54).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
29
M. Carnesecchi
G
M. Carnesecchi
G
69
D
19
B. Djimsiti
57'
D
B. Djimsiti
57'
D
42
G. Scalvini
D
G. Scalvini
D
59
N. Zalewski
M
N. Zalewski
M
13
Éderson
M
Éderson
M
15
M. de Roon
76'
M
M. de Roon
76'
M
77
D. Zappacosta
85'
M
D. Zappacosta
85'
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
76'
F
C. De Ketelaere
76'
F
90
N. Krstović
F
N. Krstović
F
9
G. Scamacca
57'
F
G. Scamacca
57'
F
Bench
18
Giacomo Raspadori
40'
F
Giacomo Raspadori
40'
F
4
I. Hien
40'
D
I. Hien
40'
D
10
L. Samardžić
21'
M
L. Samardžić
21'
M
8
Mario Pasalic
21'
M
Mario Pasalic
21'
M
16
R. Bellanova
D
R. Bellanova
D
23
S. Kolašinac
D
S. Kolašinac
D
16
J. Bijlow
G
J. Bijlow
G
22
D
5
L. Østigård
D
L. Østigård
D
27
D
20
S. Sabelli
86'
M
S. Sabelli
86'
M
32
M. Frendrup
M
M. Frendrup
M
4
Alexsandro Amorim
69'
M
Alexsandro Amorim
69'
M
77
M. Ellertsson
M
M. Ellertsson
M
21
J. Ekhator
70'
F
J. Ekhator
70'
F
9
Vítinha
86'
F
Vítinha
86'
F
29
L. Colombo
56'
F
L. Colombo
56'
F
Bench
3
Aarón Martín
11'
D
Aarón Martín
11'
D
18
C. Ekuban
41'
F
C. Ekuban
41'
F
10
Junior Messias
28'
F
Junior Messias
28'
F
17
R. Malinovskyi
27'
M
R. Malinovskyi
27'
M
34
S. Otoa
D
S. Otoa
D
Best on the pitch
J. Bijlow
G · Genoa
8.50
· 54 pass
N. Zalewski
M · Atalanta
8.20
1 shots
· 40 pass
L. Østigård
D · Genoa
7.90
1 shots
· 35 pass
D · Genoa
7.70
· 39 pass
D · Atalanta
7.50
2 shots
· 46 pass
C. De Ketelaere
F · Atalanta
7.50
2 shots
· 44 pass
Atalanta — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 41% | 3 | — | — | |
| B. Djimsiti | D | 57 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Scalvini | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Zalewski | M | 97 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Éderson | M | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 36% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. de Roon | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Zappacosta | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 76 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Krstović | F | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | 4 | 23 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| G. Scamacca | F | 57 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | 40 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| I. Hien | D | 40 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Samardžić | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
Genoa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bijlow | G | 97 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 54 | 37% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 3 | — | — | |
| L. Østigård | D | 97 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 21% | 3 | — | — | |
| S. Sabelli | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Frendrup | M | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 69 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Ellertsson | M | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — |
| J. Ekhator | F | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Vítinha | F | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 3% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Colombo | F | 56 | 5.90 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Aarón Martín | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ekuban | F | 41 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Junior Messias | F | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Malinovskyi | M | 27 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atalanta vs Genoa?
The final score was Atalanta 0–0 Genoa.
What did the model predict before Atalanta vs Genoa?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Atalanta win, 25% to a draw, and 20% to an Genoa win.