✗Model wrong — prediction Atalanta, result Draw
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atalanta a 53% win probability (draw 25%, Genoa 20%). The final result was Atalanta 0–0 Genoa. In 2 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Genoa.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
2
1.35
Actual xG
0.54
2
Saves
7
60%
Possession
40%
6
Corners
2
17
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
19'
Amorim
56'
C. Ekuban
/
L. Colombo
G. Scamacca
/ G. Raspadori
57'
B. Djimsiti
/ I. Hien
57'
Ederson
64'
69'
Junior Messias
/
Amorim
70'
R. Malinovskyi
/
J. Ekhator
C. De Ketelaere
/ L. Samardzic
76'
M. De Roon
/ M. Pasalic
76'
N. Krstovic
78'
D. Zappacosta
/ Y. Musah
85'
86'
P. Masini
/
Vitinha
86'
A. Martin
/
S. Sabelli
Pre-match prediction
53.87%
Atalanta
25.68%
X ←
20.45%
Genoa
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.68%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.38
1.35
-0.03
0.81
0.54
-0.27
Atalanta dominated by xG (1.35 vs 0.54).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
29
Marco Carnesecchi
G
Marco Carnesecchi
G
69
D
19
Berat Djimsiti
57'
D
42
Giorgio Scalvini
D
Giorgio Scalvini
D
59
Nicola Zalewski
M
13
Éderson
M
15
M. de Roon
76'
M
M. de Roon
76'
M
77
Davide Zappacosta
85'
M
Davide Zappacosta
85'
M
17
Charles De Ketelaere
76'
F
Charles De Ketelaere
76'
F
90
N. Krstović
F
N. Krstović
F
9
G. Scamacca
57'
F
G. Scamacca
57'
F
Bench
18
Giacomo Raspadori
40'
F
Giacomo Raspadori
40'
F
4
I. Hien
40'
D
I. Hien
40'
D
10
Lazar Samardžić
21'
M
Lazar Samardžić
21'
M
8
Mario Pašalić
21'
M
Mario Pašalić
21'
M
16
Raoul Bellanova
D
Raoul Bellanova
D
23
Sead Kolašinac
D
Sead Kolašinac
D
16
Justin Bijlow
G
Justin Bijlow
G
22
D
5
Leo Østigård
D
Leo Østigård
D
27
D
20
Stefano Sabelli
86'
M
Stefano Sabelli
86'
M
32
Morten Frendrup
M
Morten Frendrup
M
4
Alexsandro Amorim
69'
M
Alexsandro Amorim
69'
M
77
Mikael Ellertsson
M
Mikael Ellertsson
M
21
Jeff Ekhator
70'
F
Jeff Ekhator
70'
F
9
Vitinha
86'
F
Vitinha
86'
F
29
Lorenzo Colombo
56'
F
Lorenzo Colombo
56'
F
Bench
3
Aarón Martín
11'
D
Aarón Martín
11'
D
18
Caleb Ekuban
41'
F
Caleb Ekuban
41'
F
10
Junior Messias
28'
F
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
27'
M
Ruslan Malinovskyi
27'
M
34
Sebastian Otoa
D
Sebastian Otoa
D
Best on the pitch
Justin Bijlow
G · Genoa
8.50
· 54 pass
Nicola Zalewski
M · Atalanta
8.20
1 shots
· 40 pass
Leo Østigård
D · Genoa
7.90
1 shots
· 35 pass
D · Genoa
7.70
· 39 pass
D · Atalanta
7.50
2 shots
· 46 pass
Charles De Ketelaere
F · Atalanta
7.50
2 shots
· 44 pass
Atalanta — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 46 | 41% | 3 | — | — | |
| Berat Djimsiti | D | 57 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Giorgio Scalvini | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicola Zalewski | M | 97 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Éderson | M | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 36% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. de Roon | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Davide Zappacosta | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | 76 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Krstović | F | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | 4 | 23 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| G. Scamacca | F | 57 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | 40 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| I. Hien | D | 40 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Lazar Samardžić | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
Genoa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Bijlow | G | 97 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 54 | 37% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 3 | — | — | |
| Leo Østigård | D | 97 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 21% | 3 | — | — | |
| Stefano Sabelli | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Morten Frendrup | M | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 69 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Mikael Ellertsson | M | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Jeff Ekhator | F | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Vitinha | F | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 3% | 3 | — | — |
| Lorenzo Colombo | F | 56 | 5.90 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Aarón Martín | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Caleb Ekuban | F | 41 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Junior Messias | F | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi | M | 27 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atalanta vs Genoa?
The final score was Atalanta 0–0 Genoa.
What did the model predict before Atalanta vs Genoa?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Atalanta win, 25% to a draw, and 20% to an Genoa win.