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Conference League · League Stage - 1 October 15, 2026 21:00
Atalanta
#15 · 3 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Pafos
#27 · 1 pts
E. Elmas (ast. G. Raspadori) 1'
G. Raspadori 18' (pen.)
G. Scamacca (ast. C. De Ketelaere) 44'
88' (ast. Anderson Silva) Biel
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atalanta a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Pafos 32%). The final result was Atalanta 3–1 Pafos.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
4
2.69
Actual xG
0.81
4
Saves
3
66%
Possession
34%
4
Corners
2
4
Tackles
8
Match Events
⚽E. Elmas · ast. G. Raspadori
1'
⚽G. Raspadori (pen.)
18'
↕ G. Raspadori / C. De Ketelaere
21'
37'
K. Sema / David Luiz ↕
⚽G. Scamacca · ast. C. De Ketelaere
44'
46'
J. Correia / Bruno ↕
46'
A. Brito / D. Quina ↕
50'
R. Sa Pinto
↕ M. Pasalic / Ederson
67'
↕ N. Zalewski / L. Samardzic
67'
69'
Guga / Pepe ↕
69'
Anderson Silva / Lele ↕
↕ T. Kristensen / J. Idele
80'
88'
ast. Anderson Silva · Biel⚽
Pre-match prediction
34.8%
Atalanta ←
32.95%
X
32.25%
Pafos
we assigned to the actual result (Atalanta) 34.8% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atalanta
0.61
2.69
+2.08
Pafos
0.96
0.81
-0.15
Atalanta dominated by xG (2.69 vs 0.81). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2 6
2 FC Lugano FC Lugano 2 6
3 Brann Brann 2 6
4 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2 6
5 Twente Twente 2 6
6 Monaco Monaco 2 6
7 St. Truiden St. Truiden 2 6
8 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split 2 6
9 Brighton Brighton 2 4
10 FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen 2 4
11 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 2 4
12 Mjallby AIF Mjallby AIF 2 4
13 Ajax Ajax 2 3
14 Borac Banja Luka Borac Banja Luka 2 3
15 Atalanta Atalanta 2 3
16 SC Braga SC Braga 2 3
17 Gent Gent 2 3
18 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 2 3
19 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2 2
20 Egnatia Rrogozhinë Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2 2
21 Riga Riga 2 2
22 FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena Zvezda 2 1
23 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 2 1
24 FK Jablonec FK Jablonec 2 1
25 FC Midtjylland FC Midtjylland 2 1
26 Aarhus Aarhus 2 1
27 Pafos Pafos 2 1
28 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 2 1
29 FC Iberia 1999 FC Iberia 1999 2 1
30 Getafe Getafe 2 1
31 Kairat Almaty Kairat Almaty 2 1
32 FC Thun FC Thun 2 0
33 Lincoln Red Imps FC Lincoln Red Imps FC 2 0
34 KuPS KuPS 2 0
35 Inter Club d'Escaldes Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 0
36 Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris 2 0
Lineups
Atalanta Atalanta 4-2-3-1
29 M. Carnesecchi M. Carnesecchi 82' G 7.30
47 L. Bernasconi L. Bernasconi 82' D 6.90
23 S. Kolašinac S. Kolašinac 82' D 7.50
31 T. Kristensen T. Kristensen 80' D 7.20
77 D. Zappacosta D. Zappacosta 82' D 6.90
8 Mario Pasalic Mario Pasalic 67' M 7.00
70 G. Gaetano G. Gaetano 82' M 6.90
59 N. Zalewski N. Zalewski 67' M 7.70
18 Giacomo Raspadori Giacomo Raspadori 1 ⚽ 1 👟 21' M 8.20
99 E. Elmas E. Elmas 1 ⚽ 82' M 7.60
9 G. Scamacca G. Scamacca 1 ⚽ 82' F 7.30
Bench
17 C. De Ketelaere C. De Ketelaere 1 👟 61' F 7.90
13 Éderson Éderson 15' M 6.90
41 J. Idele J. Idele 2' M
11 J. Rowe J. Rowe F
10 L. Samardžić L. Samardžić 15' M 6.50
51 M. Sonzogni M. Sonzogni G
57 M. Sportiello M. Sportiello G
90 N. Krstović N. Krstović F
40 R. Obrić R. Obrić D
Pafos Pafos 4-3-3
99
R. Majecki 82' G 7.30
14
N. Ioannou 82' D 6.20
4
David Luiz 37' D 6.20
3
S. Mmaee 82' D 7.00
7
Bruno Felipe 45' D 5.30
88
Pêpê Rodrigues 69' M 6.90
26
I. Šunjić 82' M 7.20
30
V. Dragomir 82' M 6.20
20
Biel 1 ⚽ 82' F 6.90
18
Lelê 69' F 6.00
8
Domingos Quina 45' F 6.70
Bench
50
Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito 37' M 6.60
33
Anderson Silva 1 👟 13' F 6.30
60 Christos Evzonas Christos Evzonas M
42
G. Michael M
6
Guga 13' M 6.30
77
João Correia 37' D 6.70
72
K. Ioannou D
12
K. Sema 45' M 6.70
61 Melinos Kais Melinos Kais D
71
M. Papastylianou G
82
P. Petrou G
Best on the pitch
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori
M · Atalanta
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 8 pass
C. De Ketelaere
C. De Ketelaere
F · Atalanta
7.90
1 👟
2 shots · 53 pass
N. Zalewski
N. Zalewski
M · Atalanta
7.70
· 43 pass
E. Elmas
E. Elmas
M · Atalanta
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 58 pass
S. Kolašinac
S. Kolašinac
D · Atalanta
7.50
· 85 pass
R. Majecki
G · Pafos
7.30
· 25 pass
Atalanta Atalanta — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Carnesecchi G 82 7.30 — — — 18 16% — — —
L. Bernasconi D 82 6.90 — — — 52 49% 1 — —
S. Kolašinac D 82 7.50 — — — 85 84% — — —
T. Kristensen D 80 7.20 — — 1 88 83% 2 — —
D. Zappacosta D 82 6.90 — — — 64 64% — — —
Mario Pasalic M 67 7.00 — — — 79 77% — — —
G. Gaetano M 82 6.90 — — 1 81 76% — — —
N. Zalewski M 67 7.70 — — — 43 39% 1 — —
Giacomo Raspadori M 21 8.20 1 1 2 8 8% — — —
E. Elmas M 82 7.60 1 — 1 58 53% — — —
G. Scamacca F 82 7.30 1 — 3 35 27% — — —
C. De Ketelaere F 61 7.90 — 1 2 53 43% — — —
Éderson M 15 6.90 — — — 14 14% — — —
J. Idele M 2 — — — — 4 3% — — —
L. Samardžić M 15 6.50 — — — 10 9% — — —
Pafos Pafos — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Majecki G 82 7.30 — — — 25 24% — — —
N. Ioannou D 82 6.20 — — — 34 31% 1 — —
David Luiz D 37 6.20 — — — 25 20% — — —
S. Mmaee D 82 7.00 — — — 40 33% 4 — —
Bruno Felipe D 45 5.30 — — — 22 19% — — —
Pêpê Rodrigues M 69 6.90 — — 1 47 44% 1 — —
I. Šunjić M 82 7.20 — — — 26 24% 1 — —
V. Dragomir M 82 6.20 — — 1 34 25% — — —
Biel F 82 6.90 1 — 2 17 13% — — —
Lelê F 69 6.00 — — 2 8 6% — — —
Domingos Quina F 45 6.70 — — — 19 17% — — —
Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito M 37 6.60 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
Anderson Silva F 13 6.30 — 1 1 2 2% — — —
Guga M 13 6.30 — — — 7 6% — — —
João Correia D 37 6.70 — — — 13 11% — — —
K. Sema M 45 6.70 — — — 20 15% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atalanta vs Pafos?
The final score was Atalanta 3–1 Pafos.
What did the model predict before Atalanta vs Pafos?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Atalanta win, 32% to a draw, and 32% to an Pafos win.