Brasileirão Série B
· Regular Season - 6
April 28, 2026 00:00
81'
(ast. Yuri)
Victor Andrade
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Athletic Club a 35% win probability (draw 31%, Nautico Recife 33%). The final result was Athletic Club 0–1 Nautico Recife.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
1
0.66
Actual xG
0.97
0
Saves
5
54%
Possession
46%
7
Corners
4
18
Tackles
16
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
R. Tavares
/ Samuel Otusanya
17'
20'
Derek
21'
Mateus Silva
Ian Luccas
24'
Marcelo Henrique
42'
Ian Luccas
/ Pedro Oliveira
56'
Douglas Pele
/ D. Vera
57'
66'
Victor Andrade
/
Vinicius
66'
Yuri
/
Mateus Silva
Gustavinho
/ Kauan Lindes
66'
72'
Felipe Saraiva
/
Junior Todinho
81'
ast. Yuri ·
Victor Andrade⚽
82'
Victor Andrade
83'
Felipe Saraiva
86'
Samuel Felix
/
Luiz Felipe
86'
Ramon
/
Wenderson
Zeca
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
35.06%
Athletic
31.85%
X
33.09%
Nautico ←
we assigned to the actual result (Nautico Recife)
33.09%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.15
0.66
-0.49
1.02
0.97
-0.05
Nautico Recife dominated by xG (0.97 vs 0.66).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
G
4
D
16
D
6
Zeca
D
Zeca
D
14
Marcelo Henrique
M
Marcelo Henrique
M
5
Ian Luccas
56'
M
Ian Luccas
56'
M
8
G. Cabezas
M
G. Cabezas
M
2
Douglas Pele
57'
M
Douglas Pele
57'
M
10
Gustavinho
66'
F
Gustavinho
66'
F
17
Kauan Rodrigues
F
Kauan Rodrigues
F
9
Ronaldo Tavares
17'
F
Ronaldo Tavares
17'
F
Bench
7
Bruninho
F
Bruninho
F
21
D. Vera
33'
F
D. Vera
33'
F
11
Max
F
Max
F
20
Oluwasegun Samuel Otusanya
73'
F
Oluwasegun Samuel Otusanya
73'
F
1
G
23
D
3
D
25
Mateus Silva
66'
D
Mateus Silva
66'
D
14
Matheus Ribeiro
D
Matheus Ribeiro
D
8
Wenderson
86'
M
Wenderson
86'
M
27
Luiz Felipe
86'
M
Luiz Felipe
86'
M
7
Vinícius
66'
M
Vinícius
66'
M
10
Dodozinho
M
Dodozinho
M
29
Todinho
72'
M
Todinho
72'
M
72
Derek Freitas
F
Derek Freitas
F
Bench
98
Felipe Saraiva
18'
F
Felipe Saraiva
18'
F
41
Samuel
9'
M
Samuel
9'
M
11
Victor Andrade
1 ⚽
24'
F
Victor Andrade
1 ⚽
24'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Nautico
8.50
· 22 pass
Victor Andrade
F · Nautico
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
Matheus Ribeiro
D · Nautico
7.30
· 39 pass
D · Nautico
7.30
· 39 pass
D · Athletic
7.20
1 shots
· 51 pass
Zeca
D · Athletic
7.20
· 57 pass
Athletic Club — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 46 | 36% | 5 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 50% | 2 | — | — | |
| Zeca | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 57 | 49% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Marcelo Henrique | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 24% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Ian Luccas | M | 56 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 2 | 1 | — |
| G. Cabezas | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 51 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Douglas Pele | M | 57 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Gustavinho | F | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Kauan Rodrigues | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 5 | 34 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Ronaldo Tavares | F | 17 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| D. Vera | F | 33 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Oluwasegun Samuel Otusanya | F | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
Nautico Recife — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 29% | 6 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | 1 | — | — | |
| Mateus Silva | D | 66 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus Ribeiro | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 29% | 5 | — | — |
| Wenderson | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Felipe | M | 86 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Vinícius | M | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Dodozinho | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Todinho | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Derek Freitas | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Felipe Saraiva | F | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Samuel | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Andrade | F | 24 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Athletic Club vs Nautico Recife?
The final score was Athletic Club 0–1 Nautico Recife.
What did the model predict before Athletic Club vs Nautico Recife?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Athletic Club win, 31% to a draw, and 33% to an Nautico Recife win.