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MLS · Regular Season - 28 October 11, 2026 01:30 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Atlanta United FC
#14 · 30 pts
1 – 3
Final score
FC Cincinnati
#8 · 42 pts
Miguel Almirón (ast. Breel Embolo) 69'
52' (ast. Tom Barlow) Kevin Denkey
84' (ast. Kyle Smith) Tom Barlow
90'+7 (ast. Ender Jesús Echenique Peña) Kevin Denkey
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atlanta United FC a 44% win probability (draw 22%, FC Cincinnati 32%). The final result was Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati. In 1 previous meetings, Atlanta United FC have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Cincinnati.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
13
6
Shots on target
4
1.17
Actual xG
1.91
0
Saves
5
56%
Possession
44%
5
Corners
4
11
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
2'
Teenage Hadebe
Tomás Jacob
43'
52'
ast. Tom Barlow · Kevin Denkey⚽
↕ Ajani Fortune / Aleksey Miranchuk
56'
60'
Ender Jesús Echenique Peña / David Douděra ↕
⚽Miguel Almirón · ast. Breel Embolo
69'
72'
Bryan Ramirez / Tyrell Malacia ↕
72'
Julian Malatini / Miles Robinson ↕
78'
Tah Anunga / Obinna Nwobodo ↕
78'
Gerardo Valenzuela / Samuel Mawuena Gidi ↕
84'
ast. Kyle Smith · Tom Barlow⚽
↕ Giuliano Galoppo / Fafà Picault
86'
↕ Tristan Muyumba / Cooper Sanchez
86'
88'
Julian Malatini
↕ Elías Báez / Sergi Santos
90'+2
90'+4
Tom Barlow
Mauricio Amaro
90'+4
90'+7
ast. Ender Jesús Echenique Peña · Kevin Denkey⚽
Pre-match prediction
44.64%
Atlanta
22.7%
X
32.66%
FC ←
we assigned to the actual result (FC Cincinnati) 32.66% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atlanta
1.75
1.17
-0.58
FC
1.45
1.91
+0.46
FC Cincinnati dominated by xG (1.91 vs 1.17). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 31 70
2 New England Revolution New England Revolution 31 55
3 Inter Miami Inter Miami 31 55
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 31 51
5 Charlotte Charlotte 31 47
6 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 31 46
7 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 31 42
8 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 31 42
9 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 31 39
10 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 31 38
11 Toronto FC Toronto FC 31 36
12 New York City FC New York City FC 31 35
13 DC United DC United 31 33
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 31 30
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 31 25
Lineups
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
1 L. Hoyos L. Hoyos G 5.68
3 E. Báez E. Báez 89' D 6.47
6 J. Alonso J. Alonso D 6.70
4 E. Mihaj E. Mihaj D 5.94
55 T. Jacob T. Jacob D 6.31
8 T. Muyumba T. Muyumba 86' M 6.15
14 M. Amaro M. Amaro M 6.36
11 G. Galoppo G. Galoppo 86' M 6.38
35 A. Fortune A. Fortune 56' F 6.62
36 B. Embolo B. Embolo 1 👟 F 6.20
10 M. Almirón M. Almirón 1 ⚽ F 8.20
Bench
16 Adrian Gill Adrian Gill M 0.00
59 A. Miranchuk A. Miranchuk 34' M 5.98
48 C. Sanchez C. Sanchez 4' M 5.83
22 F. Picault F. Picault 4' F 6.29
42 Jayden Hibbert Jayden Hibbert G 0.00
20 L. Brennan L. Brennan M 0.00
47 Matthew Edwards Matthew Edwards D 0.00
27 P. Díaz P. Díaz D 0.00
19 Sergio Santos Sergio Santos 1' F 0.00
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
13 E. Louro E. Louro G 6.80
15 T. Hadebe T. Hadebe D 6.36
12 M. Robinson M. Robinson 72' D 6.74
24 K. Smith K. Smith 1 👟 D 6.74
3 T. Malacia T. Malacia 72' M 6.49
5 O. Nwobodo O. Nwobodo 78' M 5.98
20 P. Bucha P. Bucha M 7.08
11 S. Gidi S. Gidi 78' M 6.58
23 D. Douděra D. Douděra 60' M 6.22
9 K. Denkey K. Denkey 2 ⚽ F 9.00
16 T. Barlow T. Barlow 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.73
Bench
2 A. Powell A. Powell D 0.00
27 B. Anunga B. Anunga 12' M 6.33
29 Bryan Josías Ramírez León Bryan Josías Ramírez León 18' D 6.63
66 E. Echenique E. Echenique 1 👟 30' F 7.17
22 G. Valenzuela G. Valenzuela 12' M 6.28
6 J. Malatini J. Malatini 18' D 5.94
17 K. Mboma Dem K. Mboma Dem F 0.00
4 N. Hagglund N. Hagglund D 0.00
18 R. Celentano R. Celentano G 0.00
Best on the pitch
K. Denkey
K. Denkey
F · FC
9.00
2 ⚽
6 shots · 24 pass
T. Barlow
T. Barlow
F · FC
8.73
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots · 22 pass
M. Almirón
M. Almirón
F · Atlanta
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 39 pass
E. Echenique
E. Echenique
F · FC
7.17
1 👟
· 14 pass
P. Bucha
P. Bucha
M · FC
7.08
1 shots · 42 pass
E. Louro
E. Louro
G · FC
6.80
· 22 pass
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Hoyos G 90 5.68 — — 0 41 27% 0 — —
E. Báez D 89 6.47 — — 1 47 42% 0 — —
J. Alonso D 90 6.70 — — 2 79 67% 1 — —
E. Mihaj D 90 5.94 — — 0 62 55% 0 — —
T. Jacob D 90 6.31 — — 2 42 36% 3 1 —
T. Muyumba M 86 6.15 — — 2 47 39% 1 — —
M. Amaro M 90 6.36 — — 1 65 58% 1 1 —
G. Galoppo M 86 6.38 — — 4 33 25% 2 — —
A. Fortune F 56 6.62 — — 0 11 9% 2 — —
B. Embolo F 90 6.20 — 1 1 15 11% 1 — —
M. Almirón F 90 8.20 1 — 3 39 32% 0 — —
A. Miranchuk M 34 5.98 — — 0 19 15% 0 — —
C. Sanchez M 4 5.83 — — 0 7 5% 0 — —
F. Picault F 4 6.29 — — 0 7 6% 0 — —
Sergio Santos F 1 0.00 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Louro G 90 6.80 — — 0 22 10% 0 — —
T. Hadebe D 90 6.36 — — 0 35 30% 1 1 —
M. Robinson D 72 6.74 — — 0 26 23% 0 — —
K. Smith D 90 6.74 — 1 1 66 55% 1 — —
T. Malacia M 72 6.49 — — 0 27 23% 0 — —
O. Nwobodo M 78 5.98 — — 0 29 20% 2 — —
P. Bucha M 90 7.08 — — 1 42 37% 0 — —
S. Gidi M 78 6.58 — — 0 46 44% 0 — —
D. Douděra M 60 6.22 — — 0 25 20% 0 — —
K. Denkey F 90 9.00 2 — 6 24 21% 1 — —
T. Barlow F 90 8.73 1 1 4 22 19% 0 1 —
B. Anunga M 12 6.33 — — 0 5 4% 2 — —
Bryan Josías Ramírez León D 18 6.63 — — 0 9 5% 0 — —
E. Echenique F 30 7.17 — 1 0 14 10% 1 — —
G. Valenzuela M 12 6.28 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
J. Malatini D 18 5.94 — — 0 6 1% 0 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?
The final score was Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati.
What did the model predict before Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Atlanta United FC win, 22% to a draw, and 32% to an FC Cincinnati win.