A. Gonzalez
(ast. L. Gamboa)
69'
A. Rocha
81'
(pen.)
45'+3
(ast. J. Paradela)
C. Rotondi
55'
(ast. J. Paradela)
C. Ebere
(pen.)
87'
C. Ebere
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruz Azul a 49% win probability (draw 32%, Atlas 17%). The final result was Atlas 2–3 Cruz Azul. In 3 previous meetings, Atlas have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Cruz Azul.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
2
Shots on target
9
1.91
Actual xG
1.96
6
Saves
0
56%
Possession
44%
2
Corners
5
17
Tackles
18
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
36'
O. Campos
41'
J. Rodarte
43'
G. Piovi
J. Rodriguez
43'
45'+3
ast. J. Paradela ·
C. Rotondi⚽
55'
ast. J. Paradela ·
C. Ebere⚽
60'
J. Marquez
/
O. Campos
D. Gonzalez
/ L. Gamboa
63'
E. Zaldivar
/ A. Gonzalez
63'
⚽A. Gonzalez
· ast. L. Gamboa
69'
E. Aguirre
/ A. Rodriguez
74'
⚽A. Rocha
(pen.)
81'
A. Rocha
81'
87'
(pen.)
C. Ebere⚽
87'
A. Montano
/
C. Ebere
90'+4
L. Romero
/
J. Paradela
90'+4
B. Gamboa
/
A. Palavecino
Pre-match prediction
17.99%
Atlas
32.19%
X
49.81%
Cruz ←
we assigned to the actual result (Cruz Azul)
49.81%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.62
1.91
+1.29
1.32
1.96
+0.64
xG dominance was balanced (1.91 – 1.96).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
G
25
Jorge Rodríguez
D
Jorge Rodríguez
D
21
Rodrigo Schlegel
D
Rodrigo Schlegel
D
28
Manuel Capasso
D
Manuel Capasso
D
3
Gustavo Ferrareis
D
Gustavo Ferrareis
D
26
Aldo Rocha
1 ⚽
M
Aldo Rocha
1 ⚽
M
199
Sergio Hernandez
M
Sergio Hernandez
M
15
Paulo Ramírez
M
Paulo Ramírez
M
6
Edgar Zaldívar
63'
M
Edgar Zaldívar
63'
M
11
D. González
63'
M
D. González
63'
M
19
Eduardo Aguirre
74'
F
Eduardo Aguirre
74'
F
Bench
58
Arturo González
1 ⚽
27'
F
Arturo González
1 ⚽
27'
F
13
Gaddi Aguirre
D
Gaddi Aguirre
D
251
Luis Gamboa
1 👟
27'
F
Luis Gamboa
1 👟
27'
F
23
G
3
O. Campos
60'
D
O. Campos
60'
D
33
G. Piovi
D
G. Piovi
D
17
Amaury Garcia
D
Amaury Garcia
D
4
W. Ditta
D
W. Ditta
D
22
D
29
C. Rotondi
1 ⚽
M
C. Rotondi
1 ⚽
M
19
C. Rodríguez
M
C. Rodríguez
M
8
A. Palavecino
89'
M
A. Palavecino
89'
M
20
J. Paradela
2 👟
89'
M
J. Paradela
2 👟
89'
M
11
Osinachi Ebere
2 ⚽
87'
F
Osinachi Ebere
2 ⚽
87'
F
Bench
10
Andres Montaño
11'
M
Andres Montaño
11'
M
16
Jeremy Márquez
30'
M
Jeremy Márquez
30'
M
18
L. Romero
1'
F
L. Romero
1'
F
Best on the pitch
C. Rotondi
M · Cruz
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 14 pass
G · Atlas
8.30
· 10 pass
Osinachi Ebere
F · Cruz
7.70
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
O. Campos
D · Cruz
7.50
· 8 pass
Manuel Capasso
D · Atlas
7.30
2 shots
· 48 pass
Arturo González
F · Atlas
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Atlas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| Jorge Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 31% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Schlegel | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Manuel Capasso | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 40% | 7 | — | — |
| Gustavo Ferrareis | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| Aldo Rocha | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 50 | 47% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Sergio Hernandez | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 16 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Paulo Ramírez | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Edgar Zaldívar | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| D. González | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo Aguirre | F | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Arturo González | F | 27 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Gamboa | F | 27 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Cruz Azul — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| O. Campos | D | 60 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | 2 | 1 | — |
| G. Piovi | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 27% | — | 1 | — |
| Amaury Garcia | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Ditta | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 39 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — | |
| C. Rotondi | M | 90 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 14 | 11% | 6 | — | — |
| C. Rodríguez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Palavecino | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| J. Paradela | M | 89 | 7.00 | — | 2 | 3 | 24 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Osinachi Ebere | F | 87 | 7.70 | 2 | — | 2 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Andres Montaño | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Márquez | M | 30 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Romero | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
The final score was Atlas 2–3 Cruz Azul.
What did the model predict before Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
The model assigned 17% probability to a Atlas win, 32% to a draw, and 49% to an Cruz Azul win.