Champions League
· Semi-finals
April 29, 2026 21:00
J. Alvarez
56'
(pen.)
(pen.)
44'
V. Gyokeres
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 38% win probability (draw 30%, Atletico Madrid 31%). The final result was Atletico Madrid 1–1 Arsenal. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Arsenal.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
4
Shots on target
2
2.22
Actual xG
1.47
1
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
1
21
Tackles
7
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
44'
(pen.)
V. Gyokeres⚽
G. Simeone
/ R. Le Normand
46'
⚽J. Alvarez
(pen.)
56'
58'
E. Eze
/
M. Odegaard
68'
L. Trossard
/
G. Martinelli
68'
B. Saka
/
N. Madueke
69'
Gabriel Jesus
/
V. Gyokeres
J. Alvarez
/ A. Baena
77'
D. Hancko
78'
86'
C. Mosquera
/
B. White
J. Cardoso
/ N. Molina
88'
Pre-match prediction
31.64%
Atletico
30.32%
X ←
38.04%
Arsenal
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
30.32%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.94
2.22
+1.28
1.09
1.47
+0.38
Atletico Madrid dominated by xG (2.22 vs 1.47).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
G
3
Matteo Ruggeri
D
Matteo Ruggeri
D
17
D. Hancko
D
D. Hancko
D
18
Marc Pubill
D
Marc Pubill
D
14
Marcos Llorente
D
Marcos Llorente
D
22
A. Lookman
M
A. Lookman
M
5
J. Cardoso
88'
M
6
Koke
M
Koke
M
20
G. Simeone
45'
M
G. Simeone
45'
M
19
J. Álvarez
1 ⚽
77'
F
J. Álvarez
1 ⚽
77'
F
7
A. Griezmann
F
A. Griezmann
F
Bench
10
Álex Baena
18'
M
Álex Baena
18'
M
9
A. Sørloth
F
A. Sørloth
F
15
Clément Lenglet
D
32
Javier Boñar
D
Javier Boñar
D
1
J. Musso
G
J. Musso
G
34
Julio Díaz
M
Julio Díaz
M
16
N. Molina
7'
D
N. Molina
7'
D
21
Obed Vargas
M
Obed Vargas
M
24
Robin Le Normand
50'
D
Robin Le Normand
50'
D
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
11
T. Almada
M
T. Almada
M
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
5
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
4
Ben White
86'
D
Ben White
86'
D
36
Martín Zubimendi
M
Martín Zubimendi
M
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
8
M. Ødegaard
58'
M
M. Ødegaard
58'
M
11
Gabriel Martinelli
68'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
68'
F
14
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
69'
F
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
69'
F
20
N. Madueke
68'
F
N. Madueke
68'
F
Bench
7
B. Saka
27'
F
B. Saka
27'
F
16
C. Nørgaard
M
C. Nørgaard
M
3
Cristhian Mosquera
9'
D
Cristhian Mosquera
9'
D
10
E. Eze
37'
M
E. Eze
37'
M
9
Gabriel Jesus
26'
F
Gabriel Jesus
26'
F
19
L. Trossard
27'
F
L. Trossard
27'
F
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
D
M. Lewis-Skelly
D
33
Riccardo Calafiori
D
Riccardo Calafiori
D
Best on the pitch
V. Gyökeres
F · Arsenal
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
Matteo Ruggeri
D · Atletico
7.30
· 43 pass
J. Álvarez
F · Atletico
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 30 pass
David Raya
G · Arsenal
7.20
· 27 pass
A. Lookman
M · Atletico
7.00
4 shots
· 32 pass
J. Cardoso
M · Atletico
7.00
· 49 pass
Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | 5 | — | — |
| D. Hancko | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 58% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Marcos Llorente | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Lookman | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 32 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Cardoso | M | 88 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 49 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Koke | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 69 | 58% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Simeone | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Álvarez | F | 77 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 30 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Griezmann | F | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 7 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 50 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 19% | — | — | — |
| D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 23% | 2 | — | — | |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 48 | 44% | — | — | — |
| D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 62 | 59% | — | — | — | |
| Ben White | D | 86 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 50 | 46% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 87 | 81% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 58 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 69 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| N. Madueke | F | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| B. Saka | F | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 37 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Jesus | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| L. Trossard | F | 27 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 12% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal?
The final score was Atletico Madrid 1–1 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 31% probability to a Atletico Madrid win, 30% to a draw, and 38% to an Arsenal win.