Champions League
· Quarter-finals
April 14, 2026 21:00
✓Model correct — prediction Barcelona
A. Lookman
(ast. M. Llorente)
31'
4'
(ast. F. Torres)
Lamine Yamal
24'
(ast. D. Olmo)
F. Torres
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 65% win probability (draw 12%, Atletico Madrid 22%). The final result was Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona. In 5 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 3 wins for Barcelona.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
11
5
Shots on target
8
1.64
Actual xG
2.25
7
Saves
4
29%
Possession
71%
2
Corners
4
27
Tackles
13
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
4'
ast. F. Torres ·
Lamine Yamal⚽
24'
ast. D. Olmo ·
F. Torres⚽
⚽A. Lookman
· ast. M. Llorente
31'
55'
G. Simeone
/ A. Baena
66'
A. Lookman
/ N. Gonzalez
66'
68'
R. Lewandowski
/
F. Torres
68'
M. Rashford
/
Fermin
69'
Gavi
A. Griezmann
/ A. Sorloth
76'
79'
E. Garcia
81'
F. de Jong
/
Gavi
Koke
/ J. Cardoso
89'
89'
R. Araujo
/
J. Cancelo
89'
R. Bardghji
/
D. Olmo
Pre-match prediction
22.6%
Atletico
12.14%
X
65.26%
Barcelona ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Barcelona)
65.26%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.93
1.64
+0.71
3.11
2.25
-0.86
Barcelona dominated by xG (2.25 vs 1.64).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
J. Musso
G
J. Musso
G
3
Matteo Ruggeri
D
Matteo Ruggeri
D
15
Clément Lenglet
D
24
Robin Le Normand
D
Robin Le Normand
D
16
N. Molina
D
N. Molina
D
22
A. Lookman
1 ⚽
66'
M
A. Lookman
1 ⚽
66'
M
6
Koke
89'
M
Koke
89'
M
14
Marcos Llorente
1 👟
M
Marcos Llorente
1 👟
M
20
G. Simeone
66'
M
G. Simeone
66'
M
19
J. Álvarez
F
J. Álvarez
F
7
A. Griezmann
76'
F
A. Griezmann
76'
F
Bench
10
Álex Baena
33'
M
Álex Baena
33'
M
9
A. Sørloth
23'
F
A. Sørloth
23'
F
32
Javier Boñar
D
Javier Boñar
D
5
J. Cardoso
10'
M
34
Julio Díaz
M
Julio Díaz
M
23
N. González
33'
F
N. González
33'
F
21
Obed Vargas
M
Obed Vargas
M
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
11
T. Almada
M
T. Almada
M
13
G
2
João Cancelo
89'
D
João Cancelo
89'
D
18
Gerard Martín
D
Gerard Martín
D
24
Eric García
79'
D
Eric García
79'
D
23
Jules Koundé
D
Jules Koundé
D
8
Pedri
M
Pedri
M
6
Gavi
81'
M
Gavi
81'
M
16
Fermín
68'
M
Fermín
68'
M
20
Dani Olmo
1 👟
89'
M
Dani Olmo
1 👟
89'
M
10
Lamine Yamal
1 ⚽
M
Lamine Yamal
1 ⚽
M
7
Ferran Torres
1 ⚽
1 👟
68'
F
Ferran Torres
1 ⚽
1 👟
68'
F
Bench
3
Alejandro Balde
D
Alejandro Balde
D
21
F. de Jong
18'
M
F. de Jong
18'
M
17
Marc Casadó
M
Marc Casadó
M
14
M. Rashford
31'
F
M. Rashford
31'
F
4
R. Araújo
10'
D
R. Araújo
10'
D
28
R. Bardghji
10'
F
R. Bardghji
10'
F
9
Robert Lewandowski
31'
F
Robert Lewandowski
31'
F
Best on the pitch
J. Musso
G · Atletico
9.30
· 29 pass
Lamine Yamal
M · Barcelona
8.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 51 pass
Ferran Torres
F · Barcelona
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 22 pass
Marcos Llorente
M · Atletico
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 22 pass
A. Lookman
M · Atletico
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 14 pass
Pedri
M · Barcelona
7.30
· 109 pass
Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Musso | G | 99 | 9.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 5 | — | — |
| Clément Lenglet | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 99 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 18% | — | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Lookman | M | 66 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 14 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Koke | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | 4 | — | — |
| Marcos Llorente | M | 99 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 22 | 18% | 7 | — | — |
| G. Simeone | M | 66 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Álvarez | F | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Griezmann | F | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| A. Sørloth | F | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Cardoso | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| N. González | F | 33 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Barcelona — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| João Cancelo | D | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 51% | 2 | — | — |
| Gerard Martín | D | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 88 | 82% | 1 | — | — |
| Eric García | D | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 87 | 82% | 2 | — | 1 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 64 | 59% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedri | M | 99 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 109 | 102% | — | — | — |
| Gavi | M | 81 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Fermín | M | 68 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 89 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 2 | 55 | 46% | 2 | — | — |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 99 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 51 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 68 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| F. de Jong | M | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Rashford | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| R. Araújo | D | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| R. Bardghji | F | 10 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Robert Lewandowski | F | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The final score was Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona.
What did the model predict before Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The model assigned 22% probability to a Atletico Madrid win, 12% to a draw, and 65% to an Barcelona win.