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Atletico Madrid - Bayern München

Champions League November 03, 2026 21:00
#26 · 0 pts
vs
#2 · 3 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.86%
Win
Atletico Madrid
30.43%
Draw
38.7%
Win
Bayern München
0.89
Expected xG
1.3

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.9%)
1X2 Result
1 31%
X 30%
2 39%
Double Chance
1X 61%
X2 69%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 57%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bayern München a 38% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Atletico Madrid. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atletico Madrid and 1.3 for Bayern München (total 2.2), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.9% probability.

Season Stats

Atletico Madrid
6W 3D 6L
Bayern München
12W 1D 2L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
3.2
1.7
Conceded
1.3
5.0
Shots OT
8.3
5.3
Corners
5.5
50%
Poss.
61%
Percentages
93%
O 1.5
100%
73%
O 2.5
87%
80%
BTTS
80%
7%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
54%
O 3.5
100%
BTTS
Atletico Madrid
5W 1D 2L · at home
Bayern München
5W 0D 2L · away
2.8
gls/g
3.1
1.4
Conceded
1.9
63%
Win %
71%
75%
Win or Draw
71%
100%
O 1.5
100%
88%
O 2.5
100%
50%
O 3.5
57%
100%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 8
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico Madrid Bayern München →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.2% 14.5% 9.4% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3%
1 10.0% 13.0% 8.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
2 4.4% 5.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% —
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

L Liverpool 2–1
L Arsenal 1–0
D Arsenal 1–1
L Barcelona 1–2
W Barcelona 0–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
W Bodo/Glimt 5–0
D Paris Saint Germain 1–1
L Paris Saint Germain 5–4
W Real Madrid 4–3
W Real Madrid 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
Attack
53
Defence
67
Form
52
Bayern München Bayern München
Attack
81
Defence
81
Form
83
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 1 3
2 Bayern München Bayern München 1 3
3 Barcelona Barcelona 1 3
4 Manchester United Manchester United 1 3
5 Como Como 1 3
6 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 1 3
7 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1 3
8 Manchester City Manchester City 1 3
9 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1 3
10 Lens Lens 1 3
11 Real Betis Real Betis 1 3
12 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1 3
13 Liverpool Liverpool 1 3
14 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1 3
15 Arsenal Arsenal 1 3
16 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 1 3
17 AS Roma AS Roma 1 1
18 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 1 1
19 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1 1
20 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1 1
21 Villarreal Villarreal 1 0
22 Lille Lille 1 0
23 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha 1 0
24 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV 1 0
25 Inter Inter 1 0
26 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1 0
27 Napoli Napoli 1 0
28 Lask Linz Lask Linz 1 0
29 Viking Viking 1 0
30 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1 0
31 FC Porto FC Porto 1 0
32 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1 0
33 Feyenoord Feyenoord 1 0
34 Sabah FA Sabah FA 1 0
35 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 1 0
36 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt 1 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
The model gives Atletico Madrid a 30% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 38% for an Bayern München win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 0.9, Bayern München 1.3 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.9%.