La Liga
· Regular Season - 35
May 09, 2026 18:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Atletico Madrid, result Celta Vigo wins
62'
(ast. W. Swedberg)
B. Iglesias
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Madrid a 55% win probability (draw 21%, Celta Vigo 22%). The final result was Atletico Madrid 0–1 Celta Vigo. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Celta Vigo.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
2
4
Shots on target
1
1.98
Actual xG
0.13
0
Saves
4
56%
Possession
44%
10
Corners
0
14
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
19'
I. Moriba
J. M. Gimenez
/ R. Le Normand
20'
A. Griezmann
/ T. Almada
60'
A. Lookman
/ N. Molina
60'
62'
ast. W. Swedberg ·
B. Iglesias⚽
A. Baena
66'
68'
F. Jutgla
/
B. Iglesias
68'
I. Aspas
/
P. Duran
68'
S. Carreira
/
A. Nunez
A. Baena
/ O. Vargas
69'
R. Le Normand
/ M. Cubo
69'
77'
F. Lopez
77'
H. Alvarez
/
W. Swedberg
Pre-match prediction
55.99%
Atletico
21.39%
X
22.63%
Celta ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Celta Vigo)
22.63%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.09
1.98
-0.11
1.19
0.13
-1.06
Atletico Madrid dominated by xG (1.98 vs 0.13).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
G
3
Matteo Ruggeri
D
Matteo Ruggeri
D
17
Dávid Hancko
D
Dávid Hancko
D
2
José María Giménez
20'
D
José María Giménez
20'
D
18
Marc Pubill
D
Marc Pubill
D
22
A. Lookman
60'
M
A. Lookman
60'
M
10
Álex Baena
69'
M
Álex Baena
69'
M
6
Koke
M
Koke
M
14
Marcos Llorente
M
Marcos Llorente
M
9
Alexander Sørloth
F
Alexander Sørloth
F
7
A. Griezmann
61'
F
A. Griezmann
61'
F
Bench
15
Clément Lenglet
D
Clément Lenglet
D
37
Iker Luque
F
Iker Luque
F
47
Javi Morcillo
M
Javi Morcillo
M
1
Juan Musso
G
Juan Musso
G
34
Julio Díaz
M
Julio Díaz
M
61
Miguel Cubo
24'
F
Miguel Cubo
24'
F
16
N. Molina
33'
D
N. Molina
33'
D
21
Obed Vargas
24'
M
Obed Vargas
24'
M
24
Robin Le Normand
49'
D
Robin Le Normand
49'
D
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
11
T. Almada
32'
M
T. Almada
32'
M
13
Ionuț Radu
G
Ionuț Radu
G
20
Marcos Alonso
D
Marcos Alonso
D
29
Yoel Lago
D
Yoel Lago
D
32
Javi Rodríguez
D
Javi Rodríguez
D
3
Óscar Mingueza
89'
M
Óscar Mingueza
89'
M
6
I. Moriba
M
I. Moriba
M
8
Fer López
M
Fer López
M
14
Alvaro Núñez
68'
M
Alvaro Núñez
68'
M
19
W. Swedberg
1 👟
77'
F
W. Swedberg
1 👟
77'
F
18
Pablo Durán
68'
F
Pablo Durán
68'
F
7
Borja Iglesias
1 ⚽
68'
F
Borja Iglesias
1 ⚽
68'
F
Bench
36
Andrés Antañón
M
Andrés Antañón
M
9
Ferran Jutglà
25'
F
Ferran Jutglà
25'
F
23
Hugo Álvarez
16'
M
Hugo Álvarez
16'
M
22
Hugo Sotelo
M
Hugo Sotelo
M
10
Iago Aspas
25'
F
Iago Aspas
25'
F
Best on the pitch
Álex Baena
M · Atletico
8.50
· 42 pass
Javi Rodríguez
D · Celta
8.20
· 59 pass
Koke
M · Atletico
7.70
· 79 pass
Borja Iglesias
F · Celta
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 19 pass
Ionuț Radu
G · Celta
7.30
· 40 pass
Óscar Mingueza
M · Celta
7.20
· 45 pass
Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 93 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | — | — | — | |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | 93 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 51% | — | — | — |
| Dávid Hancko | D | 93 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 62 | 59% | 1 | — | — |
| José María Giménez | D | 20 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 93 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 63 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Lookman | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 69 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Koke | M | 93 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 79 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| Marcos Llorente | M | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 63% | 4 | — | — |
| Alexander Sørloth | F | 93 | 5.90 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 12% | — | — | — |
| A. Griezmann | F | 61 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 27 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Miguel Cubo | F | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Obed Vargas | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 49 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | — | — | — |
| T. Almada | M | 32 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
Celta Vigo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ionuț Radu | G | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 40 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Marcos Alonso | D | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 61 | 51% | 4 | — | — |
| Yoel Lago | D | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 41% | — | — | — |
| Javi Rodríguez | D | 93 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 59 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| Óscar Mingueza | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Moriba | M | 93 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Fer López | M | 93 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | — | 1 | — |
| Alvaro Núñez | M | 68 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Swedberg | F | 77 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Pablo Durán | F | 68 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Borja Iglesias | F | 68 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Ferran Jutglà | F | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Hugo Álvarez | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Iago Aspas | F | 25 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
The final score was Atletico Madrid 0–1 Celta Vigo.
What did the model predict before Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Atletico Madrid win, 21% to a draw, and 22% to an Celta Vigo win.