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Atletico Madrid - Fenerbahçe

Champions League January 27, 2027 21:00
Atletico Madrid
#16 · 4 pts
vs
Fenerbahçe
#31 · 2 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.72%
Win
Atletico Madrid
32.71%
Draw
36.57%
Win
Fenerbahçe
0.72
Expected xG
1.01

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (12.9%)
1X2 Result
1 31%
X 33%
2 37%
Double Chance
1X 63%
X2 69%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 55%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Fenerbahçe a 36% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Atletico Madrid. Expected goals are 0.7 for Atletico Madrid and 1.0 for Fenerbahçe (total 1.7), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 12.9% probability.

Season Stats

Atletico Madrid
6W 4D 5L
Fenerbahçe
5W 5D 3L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
1.3
1.5
Conceded
1.3
5.0
Shots OT
5.0
4.8
Corners
4.8
49%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
93%
O 1.5
69%
60%
O 2.5
38%
80%
BTTS
54%
13%
Clean Sht
31%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
31%
O 3.5
70%
BTTS
Atletico Madrid
6W 1D 2L · at home
Fenerbahçe
2W 1D 3L · away
2.7
gls/g
0.8
1.2
Conceded
1.8
67%
Win %
33%
78%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
67%
78%
O 2.5
50%
44%
O 3.5
17%
89%
BTTS
50%
11%
Clean Sht
17%
0%
Failed to Score
33%
last 9
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico Madrid Fenerbahçe →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 17.9% 18.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.8% 12.9% 6.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
2 4.6% 4.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% —
3 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% — —
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
D VfB Stuttgart 1–1
W Manchester United 2–0
L Liverpool 2–1
L Arsenal 1–0
D Arsenal 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 45%
Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe
D Slavia Praha 2–2
L Aston Villa 6–0
D AS Roma 1–1
W Lyon 1–2
D Lyon 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 36%

Playing profile

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
Attack
54
Defence
74
Form
71
Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe
Attack
50
Defence
60
Form
44
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 3 9
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3 9
3 Liverpool Liverpool 3 9
4 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3 9
5 Real Betis Real Betis 3 9
6 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 7
7 Arsenal Arsenal 3 7
8 Barcelona Barcelona 3 6
9 Como Como 3 6
10 Manchester City Manchester City 3 6
11 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV 3 6
12 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3 6
13 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 6
14 Bayern München Bayern München 3 5
15 AS Roma AS Roma 3 4
16 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3 4
17 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3 4
18 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3 4
19 Villarreal Villarreal 3 3
20 Inter Inter 3 3
21 Manchester United Manchester United 3 3
22 Napoli Napoli 3 3
23 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3 3
24 Lask Linz Lask Linz 3 3
25 Sabah FA Sabah FA 3 3
26 Feyenoord Feyenoord 3 3
27 Lens Lens 3 3
28 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt 3 3
29 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 3 3
30 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3 3
31 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3 2
32 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha 3 1
33 Viking Viking 3 1
34 FC Porto FC Porto 3 0
35 Lille Lille 3 0
36 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 3 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahçe?
The model gives Atletico Madrid a 30% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 36% for an Fenerbahçe win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahçe?
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 0.7, Fenerbahçe 1.0 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahçe?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.9%.