Atletico Madrid - Manchester United
Champions League
October 13, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
34.3%
Win
Atletico Madrid
33.48%
Draw
32.21%
Win
Manchester United
0.84
0.79
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(13.97%)
1X2 Result
1
34%
X
33%
2
32%
Double Chance
1X
68%
X2
66%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
54%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atletico Madrid a 34% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Manchester United. Expected goals are 0.8 for Atletico Madrid and 0.8 for Manchester United (total 1.6), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.97% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Manchester United.
Season Stats
6W
3D
6L
1W
0D
0L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
4.0
1.7
Conceded
0.0
5.0
Shots OT
10.0
5.3
Corners
7.0
50%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
93%
O 1.5
100%
73%
O 2.5
100%
80%
BTTS
0%
7%
Clean Sht
100%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Atletico Madrid
Manchester United →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6% | 15.5% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16.4% | 13.0% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | — |
| 2 | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Atletico Madrid
Attack
43
Defence
57
Form
50
Manchester United
Attack
52
Defence
58
Form
50
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
0
Draw
1
1 Aug 2026
1–2
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
1 | 3 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Barcelona
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Manchester United
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Como
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sporting CP
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Manchester City
|
1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
|
1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Lens
|
1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Liverpool
|
1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Real Madrid
|
1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Arsenal
|
1 | 3 |
| 16 |
AEK Athens FC
|
1 | 3 |
| 17 |
AS Roma
|
1 | 1 |
| 18 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
1 | 1 |
| 19 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
1 | 1 |
| 20 |
Fenerbahçe
|
1 | 1 |
| 21 |
Villarreal
|
1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Lille
|
1 | 0 |
| 23 |
Slavia Praha
|
1 | 0 |
| 24 |
Club Brugge KV
|
1 | 0 |
| 25 |
Inter
|
1 | 0 |
| 26 |
Atletico Madrid
|
1 | 0 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
1 | 0 |
| 28 |
Lask Linz
|
1 | 0 |
| 29 |
Viking
|
1 | 0 |
| 30 |
Galatasaray
|
1 | 0 |
| 31 |
FC Porto
|
1 | 0 |
| 32 |
RB Leipzig
|
1 | 0 |
| 33 |
Feyenoord
|
1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Sabah FA
|
1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
1 | 0 |
| 36 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
1 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
The model gives Atletico Madrid a 34% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 32% for an Manchester United win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 0.8, Manchester United 0.8 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.97%.