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La Liga · Regular Season - 2 August 23, 2026 17:00
Atletico Madrid
#8 · 7 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Villarreal
#17 · 2 pts
M. Pubill (ast. G. Simeone) 59'
G. Simeone (ast. A. Baena) 85'
(pen.) 66' G. Moreno
(pen.) 78' G. Mikautadze
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Madrid a 36% win probability (draw 32%, Villarreal 31%). The final result was Atletico Madrid 2–2 Villarreal. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Villarreal.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
9
4
Shots on target
6
0.71
Actual xG
3.60
4
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
5
Corners
3
26
Tackles
11
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
↕ R. Mendoza / A. Baena
46'
50'
S. Mourino
A. Baena
54'
⚽M. Pubill · ast. G. Simeone
59'
61'
G. Moreno / A. Moleiro ↕
61'
T. Buchanan / A. Perez ↕
66'
(pen.) G. Moreno⚽
↕ Koke / M. Llorente
66'
↕ M. Pubill / J. Alvarez
66'
↕ Lee Kang-In / P. Barrios
66'
D. Simeone
76'
R. Le Normand
76'
M. Hjulmand
76'
78'
(pen.) G. Mikautadze⚽
↕ A. Lookman / J. Gimenez
79'
79'
C. Macia / N. Pepe ↕
79'
I. Akhomach / G. Mikautadze ↕
85'
T. Oluwaseyi / S. Comesana ↕
⚽G. Simeone · ast. A. Baena
85'
J. Gimenez
90'+1
90'+10
J. Foyth
Pre-match prediction
36.07%
Atletico
32.14%
X ←
31.79%
Villarreal
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 32.14% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atletico
1.66
0.71
-0.95
Villarreal
0.93
3.60
+2.67
Villarreal dominated by xG (3.60 vs 0.71). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 4 12
2 Alaves Alaves 5 10
3 Sevilla Sevilla 5 10
4 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4 9
5 Real Betis Real Betis 4 9
6 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 4 8
7 Espanyol Espanyol 5 7
8 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4 7
9 Racing Santander Racing Santander 5 7
10 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 5 7
11 Osasuna Osasuna 5 7
12 Athletic Club Athletic Club 4 6
13 Levante Levante 4 5
14 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4 4
15 Getafe Getafe 4 4
16 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 5 3
17 Villarreal Villarreal 4 2
18 Malaga Malaga 4 2
19 Elche Elche 4 1
20 Valencia Valencia 5 1
Lineups
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
13 J. Oblak J. Oblak G 8.20
22 Álex Grimaldo Álex Grimaldo D 6.70
17 D. Hancko D. Hancko D 6.90
24 Robin Le Normand Robin Le Normand 76' D 5.60
18 Marc Pubill Marc Pubill 1 ⚽ 66' D 8.20
4 Rodrigo Mendoza Rodrigo Mendoza 45' M 6.70
23 M. Hjulmand M. Hjulmand M 7.00
6 Koke Koke 66' M 7.70
20 G. Simeone G. Simeone 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 7.90
7 Lee Kang-In Lee Kang-In 66' F 6.90
11 A. Lookman A. Lookman 79' F 7.20
Bench
10 Álex Baena Álex Baena 1 👟 45' M 6.00
16 Arnau Ortiz Arnau Ortiz F
12 Carlos Martín Carlos Martín F
30 Dani Martínez Dani Martínez D
19 J. Álvarez J. Álvarez 24' F 6.30
5 J. Cardoso J. Cardoso M
46 J. Castillo J. Castillo M
2 J. Giménez J. Giménez 11' D 6.70
1 J. Musso J. Musso G
27 Jorge Domínguez Jorge Domínguez D
14 Marcos Llorente Marcos Llorente 24' M 6.90
8 Pablo Barrios Pablo Barrios 24' M 6.90
Villarreal Villarreal 4-4-2
1 Luíz Júnior Luíz Júnior G 6.20
20 Carlos Romero Carlos Romero D 6.00
12 Renato Veiga Renato Veiga D 6.90
8 Juan Foyth Juan Foyth D 6.90
15 S. Mouriño S. Mouriño D 6.60
10 Alberto Moleiro Alberto Moleiro 61' M 6.60
18 P. Gueye P. Gueye M 7.00
14 Santi Comesaña Santi Comesaña 85' M 6.30
19 N. Pépé N. Pépé 79' M 6.90
9 G. Mikautadze G. Mikautadze 1 ⚽ 79' F 7.30
22 Ayoze Pérez Ayoze Pérez 61' F 6.90
Bench
3 A. Freeman A. Freeman D
30 Cheikh Tidiane Thiam Cheikh Tidiane Thiam M
26 C. Macia C. Macia 11' M 6.30
7 Gerard Moreno Gerard Moreno 1 ⚽ 29' F 7.20
11 Ilias Akhomach Ilias Akhomach 11' F 6.50
2 Logan Costa Logan Costa D
27 Nizar El Jmili Nizar El Jmili F
6 Pau Navarro Pau Navarro D
25 P. Gulácsi P. Gulácsi G
23 Sergi Cardona Sergi Cardona D
17 T. Buchanan T. Buchanan 29' F 7.30
21 T. Oluwaseyi T. Oluwaseyi 15' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
J. Oblak
J. Oblak
G · Atletico
8.20
· 29 pass
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill
D · Atletico
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 32 pass
G. Simeone
G. Simeone
M · Atletico
7.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 36 pass
Koke
Koke
M · Atletico
7.70
· 44 pass
G. Mikautadze
G. Mikautadze
F · Villarreal
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots · 21 pass
T. Buchanan
T. Buchanan
F · Villarreal
7.30
1 shots · 10 pass
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Oblak G 90 8.20 — — — 29 25% — — —
Álex Grimaldo D 90 6.70 — — 1 48 41% 5 — —
D. Hancko D 90 6.90 — — — 69 62% — — —
Robin Le Normand D 76 5.60 — — — 35 33% 1 — 1
Marc Pubill D 66 8.20 1 — 1 32 28% 1 — —
Rodrigo Mendoza M 45 6.70 — — 1 16 14% 1 — —
M. Hjulmand M 90 7.00 — — 1 66 65% 3 1 —
Koke M 66 7.70 — — — 44 39% 4 — —
G. Simeone M 90 7.90 1 1 2 36 29% 5 — —
Lee Kang-In F 66 6.90 — — 3 31 25% 2 — —
A. Lookman F 79 7.20 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
Álex Baena M 45 6.00 — 1 — 23 17% — 1 —
J. Álvarez F 24 6.30 — — — 10 9% — — —
J. Giménez D 11 6.70 — — — 20 17% — 1 —
Marcos Llorente M 24 6.90 — — — 21 20% 2 — —
Pablo Barrios M 24 6.90 — — — 27 23% 1 — —
Villarreal Villarreal — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Luíz Júnior G 90 6.20 — — — 26 25% — — —
Carlos Romero D 90 6.00 — — — 44 34% 2 — —
Renato Veiga D 90 6.90 — — — 58 52% — — —
Juan Foyth D 90 6.90 — — — 67 61% — 1 —
S. Mouriño D 90 6.60 — — — 41 39% 4 1 —
Alberto Moleiro M 61 6.60 — — — 28 25% 3 — —
P. Gueye M 90 7.00 — — 1 70 63% 1 — —
Santi Comesaña M 85 6.30 — — — 51 44% — — —
N. Pépé M 79 6.90 — — 1 31 30% — — —
G. Mikautadze F 79 7.30 1 — 4 21 17% — — —
Ayoze Pérez F 61 6.90 — — 1 25 20% — — —
C. Macia M 11 6.30 — — — 10 9% 1 — —
Gerard Moreno F 29 7.20 1 — 1 13 10% — — —
Ilias Akhomach F 11 6.50 — — — 1 1% — — —
T. Buchanan F 29 7.30 — — 1 10 9% — — —
T. Oluwaseyi F 15 6.70 — — — 2 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
The final score was Atletico Madrid 2–2 Villarreal.
What did the model predict before Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Atletico Madrid win, 32% to a draw, and 31% to an Villarreal win.