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Atletico-MG - Boca Juniors

Copa Sudamericana November 21, 2026 22:00
Atletico-MG
#1 · 10 pts
vs
Boca Juniors
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.43%
Win
Atletico-MG
23.06%
Draw
44.5%
Win
Boca Juniors
1.3
Expected xG
1.64

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.7%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 23%
2 45%
Double Chance
1X 56%
X2 68%
12 77%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 56%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Boca Juniors a 44% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 32% for Atletico-MG. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico-MG and 1.6 for Boca Juniors (total 2.9), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.7% probability.

Season Stats

Atletico-MG
7W 4D 4L
Boca Juniors
5W 1D 2L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.6
1.1
Conceded
0.6
4.4
Shots OT
3.0
3.8
Corners
5.0
52%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
50%
47%
O 2.5
38%
47%
BTTS
38%
33%
Clean Sht
38%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Copa Sudamericana. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
40%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Atletico-MG
8W 1D 1L · at home
Boca Juniors
2W 1D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
2.0
0.8
Conceded
0.8
80%
Win %
50%
90%
Win or Draw
75%
70%
O 1.5
75%
60%
O 2.5
50%
30%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
40%
Clean Sht
25%
10%
Failed to Score
25%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico-MG Boca Juniors →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3% 8.6% 7.1% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
1 6.9% 11.3% 9.2% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7%
2 4.5% 7.3% 6.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.4%
3 1.9% 3.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
L Atletico Torque 2–0
W Atletico Torque 3–0
W Santos 4–2
L Santos 2–0
D RB Bragantino 2–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 35%
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
W Vasco DA Gama 1–3
L Vasco DA Gama 0–1
D Sao Paulo 1–1
W Sao Paulo 1–0
W Deportivo Recoleta 0–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 28%

Playing profile

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Attack
44
Defence
51
Form
60
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
Attack
48
Defence
76
Form
72
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors?
The model gives Atletico-MG a 32% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 44% for an Boca Juniors win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors?
Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.3, Boca Juniors 1.6 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.7%.