✓Model correct — prediction Atletico-MG
Igor Gomes
(ast. Natanael Moreira Milouski)
78'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico-MG a 79% win probability (draw 11%, Coritiba 8%). The final result was Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico-MG have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Coritiba.
Match statistics
22
Total shots
13
10
Shots on target
3
1.39
Actual xG
0.69
3
Saves
9
58%
Possession
42%
10
Corners
5
10
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Thiago Borbas
/ Reinier Jesus Carvalho
45'
60'
Rodrigo Rodrigues
/
Paulo Roberto
61'
Breno Lopes
/
Joaquin Lavega
62'
Tinga
/
Fabricio Bustos
Tomás Pérez
/ Kevin Castaño
62'
Alan Minda
/ Tomás Cuello
62'
Kaua Pascini
/ Renan Lodi
62'
Mamady Cisse
/ Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
74'
⚽Igor Gomes
· ast. Natanael Moreira Milouski
78'
79'
Nicolas Fonseca
/
Sebastián Gómez
79'
Brian Ocampo
/
Pedro Rocha
90'+4
Bruno Melo
90'+4
Thiago Santos
Pre-match prediction
79.44%
Atletico-MG ←
11.61%
X
8.95%
Coritiba
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico-MG)
79.44%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.91
1.39
-2.52
1.08
0.69
-0.4
Atletico-MG dominated by xG (1.39 vs 0.69).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Gabriel Delfim
G
Gabriel Delfim
G
36
Kauã Pascini
62'
D
Kauã Pascini
62'
D
14
Vitor Hugo
D
Vitor Hugo
D
3
Léo Duarte
D
Léo Duarte
D
2
Natanael
1 👟
D
Natanael
1 👟
D
5
Alexsander
M
Alexsander
M
25
Tomás Pérez
62'
M
Tomás Pérez
62'
M
17
Igor Gomes
1 ⚽
M
Igor Gomes
1 ⚽
M
39
Mamady Cissé
74'
M
Mamady Cissé
74'
M
27
Alan Minda
62'
M
Alan Minda
62'
M
18
T. Borbas
45'
F
T. Borbas
45'
F
Bench
23
Ángelo Preciado
D
Ángelo Preciado
D
11
Bernard
M
Bernard
M
92
Dudu
F
Dudu
F
15
Kevin Castaño
28'
M
Kevin Castaño
28'
M
13
Lyanco
D
Lyanco
D
8
Maycon
M
Maycon
M
19
Reinier
45'
M
Reinier
45'
M
6
Renan Lodi
28'
D
Renan Lodi
28'
D
31
Robert Alves
G
Robert Alves
G
28
T. Cuello
28'
F
T. Cuello
28'
F
30
Victor Hugo
16'
M
Victor Hugo
16'
M
40
Vitão
D
Vitão
D
1
Pedro Luccas
G
Pedro Luccas
G
26
Bruno Melo
D
Bruno Melo
D
55
Jacy
D
Jacy
D
23
Tiago Cóser
D
Tiago Cóser
D
14
F. Bustos
62'
D
F. Bustos
62'
D
19
S. Gómez
79'
M
S. Gómez
79'
M
21
Thiago Santos
M
Thiago Santos
M
7
J. Lavega
61'
M
J. Lavega
61'
M
10
Josué
M
Josué
M
32
Pedro Rocha
79'
M
Pedro Rocha
79'
M
18
Paulo Roberto
60'
F
Paulo Roberto
60'
F
Bench
17
B. Ocampo
11'
F
B. Ocampo
11'
F
77
Breno Lopes
29'
F
Breno Lopes
29'
F
6
Felipe Jonatan
D
Felipe Jonatan
D
13
Keiller
G
Keiller
G
3
Maicon
D
Maicon
D
5
N. Fonseca
11'
M
N. Fonseca
11'
M
78
Renato Marques
F
Renato Marques
F
4
Rodrigo Moledo
D
Rodrigo Moledo
D
99
Rodrigo Rodrigues
30'
F
Rodrigo Rodrigues
30'
F
2
Tinga
28'
D
Tinga
28'
D
50
Tissi
M
Tissi
M
36
Vini Paulista
F
Vini Paulista
F
Best on the pitch
Pedro Luccas
G · Coritiba
8.80
· 45 pass
Igor Gomes
M · Atletico-MG
8.20
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 38 pass
Natanael
D · Atletico-MG
7.60
1 👟
1 shots
· 54 pass
Kevin Castaño
M · Atletico-MG
7.45
· 25 pass
Léo Duarte
D · Atletico-MG
7.32
3 shots
· 41 pass
Jacy
D · Coritiba
7.24
1 shots
· 46 pass
Atletico-MG — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Delfim | G | 90 | 7.22 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| Kauã Pascini | D | 62 | 6.81 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Vitor Hugo | D | 90 | 7.05 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| Léo Duarte | D | 90 | 7.32 | — | — | 3 | 41 | 38% | 0 | — | — |
| Natanael | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 54 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexsander | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 74 | 70% | 4 | — | — |
| Tomás Pérez | M | 62 | 7.03 | — | — | 0 | 59 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Igor Gomes | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 38 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| Mamady Cissé | M | 74 | 6.69 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 43% | 0 | — | — |
| Alan Minda | M | 62 | 6.45 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Borbas | F | 45 | 6.64 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| Kevin Castaño | M | 28 | 7.45 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| Reinier | M | 45 | 6.35 | — | — | 3 | 15 | 15% | 0 | — | — |
| Renan Lodi | D | 28 | 6.53 | — | — | 0 | 18 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Cuello | F | 28 | 6.81 | — | — | 0 | 15 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| Victor Hugo | M | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Coritiba — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Luccas | G | 90 | 8.80 | — | — | 0 | 45 | 38% | 0 | — | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 90 | 6.05 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 29% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jacy | D | 90 | 7.24 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 90 | 6.55 | — | — | 3 | 33 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Bustos | D | 62 | 5.66 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Gómez | M | 79 | 6.02 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | 0 | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | 90 | 6.52 | — | — | 0 | 44 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Lavega | M | 61 | 6.36 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Josué | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 66 | 59% | 3 | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | M | 79 | 5.89 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| Paulo Roberto | F | 60 | 6.57 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Ocampo | F | 11 | 6.76 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| Breno Lopes | F | 29 | 6.38 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Fonseca | M | 11 | 6.19 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues | F | 30 | 6.34 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Tinga | D | 28 | 6.33 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
The final score was Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba.
What did the model predict before Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
The model assigned 79% probability to a Atletico-MG win, 11% to a draw, and 8% to an Coritiba win.