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Atletico-MG - Flamengo

Brasileirão Série A April 27, 2026 03:30
Atletico-MG
#9 · 24 pts
vs
Flamengo
#2 · 34 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
37.92%
Win
Atletico-MG
27.91%
Draw
34.17%
Win
Flamengo
1.41
Expected xG
1.28
Most likely result 1–1 (12.3%)
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
50%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atletico-MG a 37% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Flamengo. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atletico-MG and 1.3 for Flamengo (total 2.7), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.3% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico-MG have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Flamengo.

Season Stats

Atletico-MG
4W 2D 6L
Flamengo
7W 2D 2L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.8
1.2
Conceded
0.9
4.3
Shots OT
4.7
5.3
Corners
4.0
51%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
58%
O 1.5
100%
42%
O 2.5
64%
33%
BTTS
55%
25%
Clean Sht
36%
ℹ Based on the last 12 matches in Brasileirão Série A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
80%
O 1.5
72%
O 2.5
20%
O 3.5
64%
BTTS
Atletico-MG
3W 2D 0L · at home
Flamengo
3W 1D 2L · away
1.8
gls/g
1.5
1.2
Conceded
1.3
60%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
67%
60%
O 1.5
100%
60%
O 2.5
83%
40%
O 3.5
0%
60%
BTTS
67%
40%
Clean Sht
17%
0%
Failed to Score
17%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico-MG Flamengo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.8% 8.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
1 9.6% 12.3% 7.8% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
2 6.8% 8.7% 5.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.2% 4.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% —
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
W Vasco DA Gama 0–1
L Corinthians 1–0
W Mirassol 3–1
D Botafogo 1–1
W Cruzeiro 1–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 30%
Flamengo Flamengo
W Coritiba 3–0
L Palmeiras 0–3
D Atletico Paranaense 1–1
W Gremio 0–1
D Vasco DA Gama 2–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 26%

Playing profile

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Attack
45
Defence
70
Form
52
Flamengo Flamengo
Attack
45
Defence
63
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Atletico-MG
0
Draw
1
Flamengo
7 Aug 2025 Copa do Brasil 0–1
1 Aug 2025 Copa do Brasil 1–0

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 18 41
2 Flamengo Flamengo 17 34
3 Fluminense Fluminense 18 31
4 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 18 30
5 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 18 29
6 Bahia Bahia 17 26
7 Coritiba Coritiba 18 26
8 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 18 25
9 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 18 24
10 Corinthians Corinthians 18 24
11 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 18 24
12 Botafogo Botafogo 17 22
13 Vitoria Vitoria 17 22
14 Internacional Internacional 18 21
15 Santos Santos 18 21
16 Gremio Gremio 18 21
17 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 18 20
18 Remo Remo 18 18
19 Mirassol Mirassol 17 16
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 17 9
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Flamengo?
The model gives Atletico-MG a 37% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 34% for an Flamengo win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Flamengo?
Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.4, Flamengo 1.3 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico-MG vs Flamengo?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.3%.