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Atletico-MG - Flamengo

Brasileirão Série A April 27, 2026 03:30
Atletico-MG
#13 · 18 pts
vs
Flamengo
#2 · 30 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
37.92%
Win
Atletico-MG
27.91%
Draw
34.17%
Win
Flamengo
1.41
Expected xG
1.28

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atletico-MG a 37% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Flamengo. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atletico-MG and 1.3 for Flamengo (total 2.7), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.3% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico-MG have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Flamengo.

Score Matrix
↕ Atletico-MG Flamengo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.8% 8.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
1 9.6% 12.3% 7.8% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
2 6.8% 8.7% 5.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.2% 4.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% —
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% — —
Recent form
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
D Botafogo 1–1
W Cruzeiro 1–3
L Coritiba 2–0
L Santos 1–0
W Atletico Paranaense 2–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 30%
Flamengo Flamengo
W Gremio 0–1
D Vasco DA Gama 2–2
W Bahia 2–0
W Fluminense 1–2
W Santos 3–1
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 28%
Playing profile
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Attack
42
Defence
70
Form
54
Flamengo Flamengo
Attack
47
Defence
69
Form
63
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
Atletico-MG
0
Draw
1
Flamengo
L 7 Aug 2025 Copa do Brasil 0–1
W 1 Aug 2025 Copa do Brasil 1–0
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 15 34
2 Flamengo Flamengo 14 30
3 Fluminense Fluminense 15 27
4 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 15 24
5 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 15 23
6 Bahia Bahia 14 22
7 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 15 20
8 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 15 20
9 Coritiba Coritiba 15 20
10 Vitoria Vitoria 14 19
11 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 15 19
12 Botafogo Botafogo 14 18
13 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 15 18
14 Internacional Internacional 15 18
15 Santos Santos 15 18
16 Corinthians Corinthians 15 18
17 Gremio Gremio 15 17
18 Mirassol Mirassol 14 13
19 Remo Remo 15 12
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 14 9
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Flamengo?
The model gives Atletico-MG a 37% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 34% for an Flamengo win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Flamengo?
Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.4, Flamengo 1.3 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico-MG vs Flamengo?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.3%.