Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — October 11, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 30 October 11, 2026 21:00 Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta

Atletico-MG

#7 · 50 pts

2 – 1

Final score

Santos

#8 · 47 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Atletico-MG

Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza (ast. Maycon de Andrade Barberan) 90'+1

Thiago Borbas (ast. Alan Minda) 90'+7

88' (ast. Philippe Coutinho) Gabriel Barbosa

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico-MG a 53% win probability (draw 19%, Santos 26%). The final result was Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos. In 3 previous meetings, Atletico-MG have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Santos.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.48

Actual xG

1.14

Saves

58%

Possession

42%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Luan Peres / Willian Arão ↕

Alan Franco

45'+2

45'+4

Lucas Veríssimo

↕ Victor Hugo Gomes Silva / Alan Minda

45'

Rony / Benjamín Rollheiser ↕

Thiago Borbas

66'

Luan Peres

↕ Alan Franco / Mamady Cisse

69'

↕ Kevin Castaño / Maycon de Andrade Barberan

69'

↕ Natanael Moreira Milouski / Angelo Preciado

70'

Igor Gomes

70'

72'

João Schmidt / Gustavo Henrique ↕

72'

Philippe Coutinho / Gabriel Bontempo ↕

↕ Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa / Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues

82'

85'

João Schmidt

85'

Álvaro Barreal / Everton ↕

88'

ast. Philippe Coutinho · Gabriel Barbosa⚽

89'

Gabriel Barbosa

89'

Willian Arão

⚽Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza · ast. Maycon de Andrade Barberan

90'+1

⚽Thiago Borbas · ast. Alan Minda

90'+7

Pre-match prediction

53.11%

Atletico-MG ←

19.98%

26.91%

Santos

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atletico-MG) 53.11% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Atletico-MG

2.65

1.48

-1.17

Santos

1.84

1.14

-0.7

Atletico-MG dominated by xG (1.48 vs 1.14). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	73
2	Palmeiras	33	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	57
4	Fluminense	33	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	54
6	Bahia	33	53
7	Atletico-MG	33	50
8	Santos	33	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	43
11	Botafogo	33	39
12	Coritiba	32	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	38
14	Vitoria	32	38
15	Gremio	33	37
16	Mirassol	32	37
17	Internacional	33	35
18	Corinthians	32	33
19	Remo	33	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	21

Lineups

Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1

Gabriel Delfim G 6.49

Kauã Pascini D 7.12

Vitor Hugo 1 ⚽ D 8.33

Léo Duarte D 7.33

Natanael 70' D 7.39

Alexsander 82' M 6.60

Alan Franco 69' M 6.27

Igor Gomes M 6.21

Kevin Castaño 69' M 7.04

Victor Hugo 45' M 6.90

T. Borbas 1 ⚽ F 8.20

Bench

Alan Minda 1 👟 45' F 6.52

Ángelo Preciado 20' D 6.76

Cauã Campos Soares F 0.00

Dudu 8' F 6.37

Lyanco D 0.00

Mamady Cissé 21' M 6.67

Maycon 1 👟 21' M 6.73

Pedro Lemos D 0.00

Reinier M 0.00

Renan Lodi D 0.00

Robert Alves G 0.00

Vitão D 0.00

Santos 4-2-3-1

Diógenes G 6.91

G. Escobar D 6.57

Willian Arão 8' D 6.07

Lucas Veríssimo D 6.48

Rodinei D 6.90

C. Oliva M 6.51

Gustavo Henrique Pereira 72' M 6.60

Everton 85' M 5.78

B. Rollheiser 45' M 6.13

Gabriel Bontempo 72' M 6.29

Gabriel Barbosa 1 ⚽ F 7.54

Bench

Á. Barreal 5' M 6.19

G. Caballero F 0.00

Igor Vinicius D 0.00

João Paulo G 0.00

João Schmidt 18' M 6.68

Lima M 0.00

Luan Peres 82' D 6.75

M. Terceros M 0.00

Philippe Coutinho 1 👟 18' M 6.95

Rony 45' F 6.30

S. Pierri M 0.00

Thaciano M 0.00

Best on the pitch

Vitor Hugo

D · Atletico-MG

8.33

1 ⚽

4 shots · 58 pass

T. Borbas

F · Atletico-MG

8.20

1 ⚽

3 shots · 22 pass

Gabriel Barbosa

F · Santos

7.54

1 ⚽

5 shots · 17 pass

Natanael

D · Atletico-MG

7.39

1 shots · 37 pass

Léo Duarte

D · Atletico-MG

7.33

2 shots · 54 pass

Kauã Pascini

D · Atletico-MG

7.12

4 shots · 58 pass

Atletico-MG — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Gabriel Delfim	G	90	6.49	—	—	0	36	25%	0	—	—
Kauã Pascini	D	90	7.12	—	—	4	58	51%	1	—	—
Vitor Hugo	D	90	8.33	1	—	4	58	54%	3	—	—
Léo Duarte	D	90	7.33	—	—	2	54	50%	1	—	—
Natanael	D	70	7.39	—	—	1	37	33%	0	—	—
Alexsander	M	82	6.60	—	—	1	47	44%	3	—	—
Alan Franco	M	69	6.27	—	—	0	46	42%	3	1	—
Igor Gomes	M	90	6.21	—	—	0	45	40%	0	1	—
Kevin Castaño	M	69	7.04	—	—	0	56	53%	0	—	—
Victor Hugo	M	45	6.90	—	—	3	29	28%	0	—	—
T. Borbas	F	90	8.20	1	—	3	22	13%	0	1	—
Alan Minda	F	45	6.52	—	1	1	17	14%	0	—	—
Ángelo Preciado	D	20	6.76	—	—	0	9	6%	0	—	—
Dudu	F	8	6.37	—	—	0	11	9%	0	—	—
Mamady Cissé	M	21	6.67	—	—	2	11	8%	1	—	—
Maycon	M	21	6.73	—	1	0	13	13%	0	—	—

Santos — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Diógenes	G	90	6.91	—	—	0	32	25%	0	—	—
G. Escobar	D	90	6.57	—	—	0	47	41%	1	—	—
Willian Arão	D	8	6.07	—	—	0	1	1%	0	1	—
Lucas Veríssimo	D	90	6.48	—	—	0	87	78%	2	1	—
Rodinei	D	90	6.90	—	—	1	52	45%	4	—	—
C. Oliva	M	90	6.51	—	—	0	52	48%	0	—	—
Gustavo Henrique Pereira	M	72	6.60	—	—	0	36	31%	5	—	—
Everton	M	85	5.78	—	—	2	28	20%	0	—	—
B. Rollheiser	M	45	6.13	—	—	0	22	18%	0	—	—
Gabriel Bontempo	M	72	6.29	—	—	1	37	31%	2	—	—
Gabriel Barbosa	F	90	7.54	1	—	5	17	14%	0	1	—
Á. Barreal	M	5	6.19	—	—	0	5	5%	0	—	—
João Schmidt	M	18	6.68	—	—	0	20	19%	5	1	—
Luan Peres	D	82	6.75	—	—	0	80	70%	3	1	—
Philippe Coutinho	M	18	6.95	—	1	1	19	18%	0	—	—
Rony	F	45	6.30	—	—	0	18	15%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Atletico-MG vs Santos?

The final score was Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos.

What did the model predict before Atletico-MG vs Santos?

The model assigned 53% probability to a Atletico-MG win, 19% to a draw, and 26% to an Santos win.