Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 7
March 19, 2026 01:00
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sao Paulo a 37% win probability (draw 31%, Atletico-MG 31%). The final result was Atletico-MG 1–0 Sao Paulo.
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
3
1.07
Actual xG
0.58
30%
Possession
70%
4
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
31.48%
Atletico-MG ←
31.48%
X
37.04%
Sao
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico-MG)
31.48%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.69
1.07
+0.38
1.32
0.58
-0.74
Atletico-MG dominated by xG (1.07 vs 0.58).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico-MG vs Sao Paulo?
The final score was Atletico-MG 1–0 Sao Paulo.
What did the model predict before Atletico-MG vs Sao Paulo?
The model assigned 31% probability to a Atletico-MG win, 31% to a draw, and 37% to an Sao Paulo win.